ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Probably no need to worry about this one anymore. MDR sure ain't what it used to be.

[chaser1]

Probably no need to worry about this one anymore. MDR sure ain't what it used to be.

I know, right?!! I can't remember seeing a year with this many potent tropical waves!

[NDG]

Probably no need to worry about this one anymore. MDR sure ain't what it used to be.

Come on now, you can't write this off just yet.

[Nimbus]

You can really hope that the ULL leaves 92L a naked swirl in a hostile environment.
Recon was scheduled for Saturday and it might be next week some time before there is anything to regenerate.

ULL's eventually fill in but the low level energy would likely be displaced further north if the ULL leads as these two clusters of eigenvalues track west north of the islands.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

You can really hope that the ULL leaves 92L a naked swirl in a hostile environment.
Recon was scheduled for Saturday and it might be next week some time before there is anything to regenerate.

ULL's eventually fill in but the low level energy would likely be displaced further north if the ULL leads as these two clusters of eigenvalues track west north of the islands.

The vorticy is slowly dissipating

[hurricaneCW]

Probably no need to worry about this one anymore. MDR sure ain't what it used to be.

That's a silly statement considering what we just saw with Gert. It's the peak season, every wave has to be monitored. It doesn't take much for one to explode if it can find the right conditions.

[Blown Away]

Convection popping this morning...

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=18031&y=7069&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[SouthDadeFish]

92L looks more ragged this morning and worse than yesterday. Low-level vorticity seems to have decreased, for now.

[tolakram]

Here is the airmass view showing all the players on the field at the moment. The upper low above 92L looks to be getting stronger but at the same time it can provide some nice ventilation if the shear zone stays north.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15026&y=6656&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=18&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[SouthDadeFish]

Even if the PV streamer to the north doesn't drop any farther south, it's close enough to 92L to induce significant shear. CIMSS is currently analyzing 25–30 kt of shear over 92L, which is unfavorable for genesis.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Shear should be on the increase starting soon, not as high as predicted over past few days... 92L should have tough road for next 2-3 days...

[Blown Away]

8AM REMAINS 70%...

[SouthDadeFish]

92L looks more ragged this morning and worse than yesterday. Low-level vorticity seems to have decreased, for now.

Actually, after looking at more satellite imagery, it's not as bad as I initially thought. I think the low-level vort max has gained a bit of latitude and be near 17 N now.

[jlauderdal]

92L looks more ragged this morning and worse than yesterday. Low-level vorticity seems to have decreased, for now.

Actually, after looking at more satellite imagery, it's not as bad as I initially thought. I think the low-level vort max has gained a bit of latitude and be near 17 N now.

considering its feeling the shear it does look decent, be interesting to see how it does next few days considering the shear forecast is not in its favor

[Blown Away]

NHC seeing 92L's progression at a slower pace than what some of the models are showing...

[jlauderdal]

NHC seeing 92L's progression at a slower pace than what some of the models are showing...

nhc definitely low confidence on the global modeling in regards to both intensity and speed

[Hurricaneman]

Even though there's shear, it looks like convection keeps popping over the supposed center which might keep the LLC going, that could be bad news if this finds better conditions