chaser1 wrote::eek: What is alarming, is an apparent recognition by all 0Z global models affirming greater W. Atlantic height rises then previously forcast, and a rapidly retreating deep E. CONUS short-wave. Right now, I'm far less concerned about any models particular 7 day forecast solution than i am about the models continuing to advertise this synoptic pattern which seemingly increases ridging over the Conus AND the West Atlantic. With that pattern in place a lot may ride on nearer term motion and the slightest deviation to Irma's forward speed and track. Those variables may have significant implications on where Irma may well end up. I'm pretty convinced there's a serious threat to the N. Leewards and Virgin Islands. For now, I'll leave the various models to play landfall roulette with this hot potato but I'll tell you this much.... with strong high pressure in the mid levels showing signs of quickly filling in the wake of a fast retreating E. CONUS short wave I believe the 500 mb pattern will ultimately bridge. Therefore, at some point I believe the net result will cause Irma to reach the Gulf of Mexico. Who she visits along the way or thereafter will be the devils' details to sort out.
Good post and analysis chaser1
Bottom line : The odds are increasing rapidly now that the East Coast of the United States, in particular, the Southeast U.S. coast from Florida to SC/NC, will be impacted by the landfall of a potentially devastating major Cat 4/5 Irma within the next 7-8 days.
Time is precious folks. The preps for supplies, and or other plans you have or need to have done is NOW!!!
