ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

This system has a long way to go to being organized. Only a broad low now mostly devoid of convection. Most of the heavy convection far removed to the east.

[Steve820]

I feel like this will be Bret by early next week (unless 92l suddenly organizes) and be a large rainmaker for the Gulf Coast (and of course the Yucatan). I hope it doesn't end up too powerful due to land proximity

[Nimbus]

The circulation center looks like it is lifting NNW to my eyes.
Could be an illusion.
It will be traveling around the western periphery of the high.
They are probably expecting higher precipitation values on the right side of the surface low?

[MetroMike]

This system has a long way to go to being organized. Only a broad low now mostly devoid of convection. Most of the heavy convection far removed to the east.

You are correct. Any system that is not designated a depression is disorganized.

[weatherguy425]

WPC forecast path for 93L is very close too the 12zECMWF and UKMET.

Updated WPC forecast is favoring western Gulf; more of a blend.

[Alyono]

too much shear at the moment. This will be a typical June genesis. On that takes its sweet time

[Hypercane_Kyle]

too much shear at the moment. This will be a typical June genesis. On that takes its sweet time

I'm reminded quite a bit of Colin from last year, if anything.

[stormreader]

Yeah, Euro solution probably most likely. Could see a t/s meander toward Tex/Mex but then get pulled farther north late in track toward upper Tex coast. Lots of energy and streaming moisture pulled up the right side into SW La. Could be the solution.

[ROCK]

12Z CMC further west than the 0z. and 12Z Euro further north. 12Z NAVGEM is MTx coast.....not sure you can derive a forecast from that but there it is....

oh and the 12z NAM showing WGOMas well...

[Ivanhater]

GFS, GFS para and Canadian still favor northern gulf solution. It really depends on where the low develops. If the northern portion takes over, it will be further east. That is what we need to watch the next couple of days

[Cpv17]

I actually think this thing will get pulled to the north or NNW once it's about 100 miles or so off to the NNE of Tampico and eventually make landfall in between Corpus Christi and Brownsville as a moderate tropical storm. That's my guess as of right now.

[tatertawt24]

GFS P trend. Maybe this comes true but I can't help but think this is yet another GFS upgrade that does not improve things for tropical forecasters.

It strengthens over land...?

[RL3AO]

It strengthens over land...?

That was the model trend (e.g. the last 12 runs of the GFS and the forecast for a certain time (next Wednesday at 0z)). It's not showing the storm strengthening over land. It's only showing the GFS generally has the system in the NE GOM or over the SE US next Tuesday night.

[stormreader]

That GFS with the sweeping right turn in NE Gom looks more like a late Sept scenario. Think I'll look toward a Euro type NW toward Tex coast with more N late in forecast period. Nothing too fast. Seems like a more reasonable June forecast.

[BobHarlem]

18Z GFS Paralell is not giving up on Panama City landfall Tuesday night (small hurricane that spawns off the larger system). The operational GFS doesn't have the center right over the energy, but the energy to the east goes into Panama City about the same time as the Parallel.

Say what you will about the Euro/GFS they both have been amazingly consistent over the last day or two.

[Hammy]

On the note of the GFS forming a new low to the northeast, could that scenario involve heavy shear pushing the convection away, and a new center reforming?

[BobHarlem]

On the note of the GFS forming a new low to the northeast, could that scenario involve heavy shear pushing the convection away, and a new center reforming?

Maybe, GFS Para does develop another low that follows the 12Z Euro closely in the BOC also. (With about the same timing)

[Alyono]

main difference in the models

MU keeps an upper trough in the NW Gulf. EC moves the upper trough and replaces it with an upper ridge

[South Texas Storms]

Curious to see what the HWRF shows in about an hour.

[CrazyC83]

I'm still puzzled on how it can end up in the Florida Panhandle with a fairly stout ridge over the Mississippi Valley - the flow would be clockwise around that? Unless a front is coming in and sucking it northeast?