CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

Man, if only they can keep GOES-16 right where it is...



Best looking invest ever

Where'd you get that one from?

[Ntxw]

Man, if only they can keep GOES-16 right where it is...

http://i67.tinypic.com/10xd9jm.png

Best looking invest ever

Where'd you get that one from?

The new satellite GOES-16

[Hurricane Andrew]

Man, if only they can keep GOES-16 right where it is...

http://i67.tinypic.com/10xd9jm.png

Best looking invest ever

Where'd you get that one from?

The new satellite GOES-16

Thanks! That page doesn't work on my iPad, will have to pull it up with my Mac later.

[RL3AO]

Man, if only they can keep GOES-16 right where it is...

Best looking invest ever

It won't impact us tropical watchers any. GOES-16 won't move until November and GOES-S should be up there by the start of next season.

[Yellow Evan]

11/2330 UTC 11.9N 109.1W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2017071200, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1094W, 30, 1008, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120235
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Convection associated with the low pressure area located well south
of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized this
afternoon and evening, with recent microwave images showing a
well-defined curved band wrapping around the western portion of the
circulation. Based on the improvement in organization, the system
is being classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed
is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates
of 25 and 35 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.

The depression is currently in an environment of light northeasterly
shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. Although the global
models do not show significant deepening, the statistical guidance
(SHIPS and LGEM) and regional hurricane models (HWRF and CTCX)
predict steady strengthening, with the regional models making the
system a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. Given
the low shear and warm waters ahead, the NHC forecast calls for
steady intensification and lies close to HCCA consensus model.

The depression is moving westward at about 10 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast
to build westward over the next several days. This should keep the
cyclone on a general westward heading throughout the five-day
forecast period. The models are in good agreement on the steering
pattern and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 12.2N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 12.2N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 12.2N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 12.3N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 12.4N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 12.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 12.5N 132.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Now we are talking big ACE producer.Let's see how much it gets.

[Kingarabian]

Glad they upgraded. That F15 pass had to be hard to ignore, plus the HWRF coming on board helped.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS Parallel showing quicker and stronger development through 72 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

Will probably be the strongest EPAC hurricane so far in the 2017 hurricane season and I like tracking these because land areas are not effected other than maybe surf

[Kingarabian]

Euro back on the development train.

[dexterlabio]

Euro back on the development train.

I know the focus right now should be this potential monster in the open waters, but this new Euro is apparently still up with the same flip-flopping tricks.

[Sciencerocks]

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

The structure of the depression has changed little during the past
few hours, with the low-level center still located on the eastern
edge of a central cluster of deep convection. Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt, while
the objective ADT estimate is T2.0/30 kt. The initial intensity
therefore remains 30 kt.

Low- to mid-level high pressure is currently located north of the
depression near the Baja California peninsula, and it is steering
the cyclone westward at 270/10 kt. This ridging is expected to
strengthen and build westward through the forecast period,
imparting a continued westward or even south-of-due-west motion on
the cyclone through day 5. In fact, with the exception of the
UKMET, the other track models have shifted notably southward from
the previous NHC forecast for the first 72 hours. The updated NHC
track forecast has also been shifted southward, close to the TVCN
multi-model consensus, but it is not as far south as the ECMWF,
HWRF, and HCCA models. Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising to see
additional southward adjustments in future forecast packages.

Various shear analyses place 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over
the depression, and that shear is likely to continue for another
24-36 hours. In the meantime, the depression is moving over very
warm waters of 28-29 deg C, and the cyclone's forecast low latitude
should keep it over warm water for the duration of the forecast
period. The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, seem to
suggest that significant deepening won't occur for another 24-48
hours (possibly due to the ongoing shear). Gradual strengthening
is therefore forecast initially, and the NHC forecast is close to a
blend of the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first 48 hours. After
48 hours, many of the models show more significant intensification
due to lower shear, and during that period the NHC forecast is
close to HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus. This new forecast
is a little higher than the previous one on days 3, 4, and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 12.1N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 12.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 12.1N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 12.0N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 11.9N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 11.8N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 12.2N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 12.7N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Kingarabian]

06z HWRF parallel shows this becoming a hurricane in 12 hours lol.

[Ntxw]

I think I'm going to side with the stronger models. This thing caught the guidance off guard quite a bit and almost came out of nowhere and escalated quite fast to begin with.

[Kingarabian]

I think I'm going to side with the stronger models. This thing caught the guidance off guard quite a bit and almost came out of nowhere and escalated quite fast to begin with.

It's funny because the Euro first showed Fernanda more than 10 days ago. And then it proceeded to be on and off with the storm until now.