WPAC: NORU - Low

[euro6208]

Just for fun.

Looks like Noru and soon Kulap are meant to be.

Noru is a roe deer and Kulap means rose. Here he is eating the rose and poising to be the stronger of the two.

[RL3AO]

SSD Dvorak Fix
System ID: 07W (NONAME)
2030 UTC Jul 20, 2017
Location: 28.3 °N 157.5 °E
Final T#: 1.5 24 hrs ago: 1.5
Dvorak Pressure: 1003 mb
Dvorak Winds: 25 kt (29 mph)

[1900hurricane]

Wow, the GEFS members are going nuts!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NORU)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NORU),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 996 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE AND MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT ALSO STARTING TO FLARE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRONG TRANSVERSE BANDING
IN THE CIRRUS CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC, INDICATING STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON INTERAGENCY SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND ANALYSIS
OF A 202351Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
LLCC, DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON BOTH
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES T2.0 (30
KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONFIRMED BY A 202351Z ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT TD NORU REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD, THOUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ELONGATED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS OVER THE SYSTEM. TD NORU CONTINUES TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TD 07W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR
MENTIONED IN PARAGRAPH 2A. TD NORU IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
MENTIONED IN PARAGRAPH 2A WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
LLCC, PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST AND CONTINUED LOW VWS, ALLOWING
FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. SSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 29-30 DEG
CELSIUS RANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TD NORU WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
ITS FORWARD ADVANCE AFTER TAU 48 AND BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY
BY TAU 72 DUE TO THE SIMULTANEOUS WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE
AND THE APPROACH OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM (INVEST 97W) FROM THE EAST.
BY TAU 72, TD 07W AND INVEST 97W WILL COME WITHIN RANGE FOR POSSIBLE
BINARY INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT TAU 48, BUT THEREAFTER SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY,
SPECIFICALLY IN REGARDS TO TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED, DUE TO THE
VARIOUS BINARY INTERACTION SCENARIOS.
C. BY TAU 72, TD 07W IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS
THE SYSTEM ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE
APPROACH OF INVEST 97W TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 72, TD NORU IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CAPTURED BY INVEST 97W AND THE TRACK SHARPLY
TRANSITIONS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATES. AFTER TAU 96 TD
07W IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH AS AN EXTENSION OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE NOSES IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TD
07W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 96, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS,
AS A UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 96 A FINGER OF THE JET STREAM WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER TOP OF TD 07W LEADING TO INCREASED MASS TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE, WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THREE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72, WITH COAMPS-
TC SHOWING THE SYSTEM CONTINUING STRAIGHT NORTHWEST, AND ECMWF, GFS
AND HWRF ALL SHOWING A SOUTHWARD TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATING A NORTHWARD TURN. ALL MODELS EXCEPT GFS
AND UKMET ARE SHOWING A TRACK NORTHWEST, THEN A LOOP BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOOP BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND TAU
120, THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING WHICH DIRECTION (NORTH OR SOUTH) THE
SYSTEM TURNS TOWARDS. THE JTWC TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, BUT FAVORS THE SOUTHERN GROUP OF MODEL TRACKERS. THERE
REMAINS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO, WHERE 97W IS NOT AS INTENSE AS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED, TRACKS FURTHER TO THE NORTH OR AT A SLOWER
SPEED AND DOES NOT CAPTURE TD 07W IN A BINARY INTERACTION. IN THE
EVENT THIS SCENARIO COMES ABOUT, TD 07W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY RECURVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EAST OF JAPAN. AT THIS TIME, THIS ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS TRENDING LESS LIKELY, AS ALMOST ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME SORT OF BINARY INTERACTION. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY RELATED
TO THE BINARY INTERACTION DISTINCT MODEL DIVERGENCE PAST TAU 72,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

00z running. 893 mb moving southwest. CNMI threat?

[euro6208]

877 mb!

[euro6208]

872 mb peak.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

872 mb peak.

That would challenge Patricia and Tip in the top position as the most intense cyclones based on pressure! It would made me claim like, "NORU İS STRONK!!!". That's amazing and OP.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS does this in the WPAC and overdoes the intensity. Anytime it shows lower than 900, take it with a great of salt.

[dexterlabio]

^Another thing is the track. I've seen models showing this classic binary interaction of 2 storms rotating around a common center, but such scenario never played out. More often the other vorticity dies down and the other becomes more dominant, sucking the weaker circulation into its own and assuming a track less erratic than what the models were depicting. Its possible that the track lines will bend somehow, but I really don't see the "dancing storms" scenario becoming a reality.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NORU)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION. A
210404Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE EAST QUADRANT, HOWEVER, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPS TIGHTLY INTO
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES RANGING FROM 29 TO 30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35
KNOTS). TD 07W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 THEN THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU
72 DUE TO A COMBINATION OF TWO PRIMARY FACTORS. THE FIRST FACTOR IS
THAT THE STR WILL WEAKEN EAST OF JAPAN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SECOND FACTOR IS RELATED TO THE
APPROACH AND TRACK OF TS 09W (KULAP), WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE
WITHIN 600 NM BY TAU 72 RESULTING IN BINARY INTERACTION. TD 07W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, INCLUDING BINARY
INTERACTION AFTER TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 09W WILL APPROACH WITHIN
360 NM BY TAU 96 AND 250 NM BY TAU 120. CONSEQUENTLY, TD 07W SHOULD
BEGIN BINARY INTERACTION WITH A CYCLONIC TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF TS 09W. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MARKED WEAKENING PHASE
WHERE 07W WEAKENS QUICKLY TO 45 KNOTS OR LOWER BY TAU 120. IN
GENERAL, DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF TS 09W AND THE EXPECTED DISRUPTION OF UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW.//
NNNN

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

By this time on 06z 21 July runs almost all models have Noru absorbing Kulap. GFS, Euro, HWRF, CMC, NAVGEM, JMA (probably except for GEPS and EPS) shows it already. Well, "Noru absorbing Kulap" train is now in here... I'll give you an Euro example...


As a consequence, Noru might be well on it's way to be most intense storm of whole 2017 (only if it's GFS). And Noru might even say... MWAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[1900hurricane]

I'm still skeptical of the hyper-intense solutions, especially those being thrown out by the GFS. I'm not even sure pressures that far below 900 mb are even possible in the subtropics.

[euro6208]

872 mb peak.

That would challenge Patricia and Tip in the top position as the most intense cyclones based on pressure! It would made me claim like, "NORU İS STRONK!!!". That's amazing and OP.

Remember Tip was reconed back in 1979 and recon stopped in 1987. Patricia was lucky she had recon in 2015.

No way Tip is still the strongest had recon not stopped as there are a dozen typhoons vying for that position. Worldwide there are some but it's mostly in the WPAC.

[euro6208]

Latest 06Z GFS is 1 mb weaker than the 00Z run. 873 mb at peak.

[NotoSans]

Basically 0% chance that the GFS solution will materialize.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 211520

A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU)

B. 21/1500Z

C. 28.23N

D. 154.62E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

[RL3AO]

2.0 from SSD at 15z.

SSD Dvorak Fix
System ID: 07W (NORU)
1430 UTC Jul 21, 2017
Location: 28.6 °N 154.7 °E
Final T#: 2.0 24 hrs ago: 1.0
Dvorak Pressure: 1000 mb
Dvorak Winds: 30 kt (34 mph)

[RL3AO]

As Ryan Maue pointed out, the GFS isn't a coupled model so it may over-intensify a slow moving system due to it not decreasing SSTs over time.

[Sciencerocks]

WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 28.5N 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 28.7N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.7N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.5N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 28.0N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.4N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 28.0N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 30.7N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 153.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND
222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN