ATL: HARVEY - Models

[SFLcane]

No way that makes it to 70W at that lattitude..More then likely will recurve. So many things can happen in 10 days but I bet a trof will be there.

[RL3AO]

I don't know. I think it tried but the ridge might get it. A very sensitive forecast.

[Alyono]

Canadian also shifted quite a bit north

Not seeing much of a Caribbean threat from this

[ColdMiser123]

PV streamer caused some weakening north of the islands. But 500 hPa pattern verbatim is ominous for the east coast, with a stronger WATL ridge compared to previous runs.

[Alyono]

looking at the shear, there seems to be an upper low over Puerto Rico. That is what seems to have weakened and turned this more northward

[FLpanhandle91]

00z Euro shows 91L in the Florida straits along with what looks like two other tropical storms in the basin?

[Alyono]

and to throw a new wrinkle. UKMET develops it, but it's a major SAL case

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.1N 45.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2017 72 15.5N 47.1W 1011 30
0000UTC 17.08.2017 84 15.4N 50.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 17.08.2017 96 15.7N 54.2W 1009 32
0000UTC 18.08.2017 108 15.4N 58.1W 1007 31
1200UTC 18.08.2017 120 15.1N 62.1W 1003 37
0000UTC 19.08.2017 132 15.6N 66.4W 1000 37
1200UTC 19.08.2017 144 15.9N 70.8W 1000 40

[AutoPenalti]

Trough will pick this up.

The EURO usually overdoes the ridge, right?


...or was it the other way around?

[RL3AO]

looking at the shear, there seems to be an upper low over Puerto Rico. That is what seems to have weakened and turned this more northward

Can track the PV streamer that eventually pinches off.

[Siker]

looking at the shear, there seems to be an upper low over Puerto Rico. That is what seems to have weakened and turned this more northward

Can track the PV streamer that eventually pinches off.

Euro also shows it; looks like it gets filled in over time though.

[RL3AO]

Euro also shows it; looks like it gets filled in over time though.

A complicated forecast (as usual). A lot of moving pieces to track over the next week. Short term things look better for the islands at least.

[RL3AO]

186 hrs

[Alyono]

the 12Z runs are why we should not be hyping this as a major East Coast or Gulf threat yet. Hasn't been done here, but has been done on twitter. Things can change quite a bit. This could be like the UKMET a major SAL case that struggles to maintain a closed circulation and is south of Haiti in 6 days, or it could be like the GFS and be a likely recurver

[sma10]

the 12Z runs are why we should not be hyping this as a major East Coast or Gulf threat yet. Hasn't been done here, but has been done on twitter. Things can change quite a bit. This could be like the UKMET a major SAL case that struggles to maintain a closed circulation and is south of Haiti in 6 days, or it could be like the GFS and be a likely recurver

Correct. It's like every other TW that has ever existed at 20W since the beginning of time: no one knows exactly what is going to happen, so don't buy into any "pronouncements", here and otherwise.

[tolakram]

Not seeing a quick escape route this run.

[RL3AO]

Please keep this thread about model runs. Discussions about other things should be brought to the discussion thread.

[weathaguyry]

Yeah, ridge is building on top of this thing, and it goes nearly stationary at 204 hours

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like steering collapses at 204hrs. Interesting. Ridge is building along with it.

[RL3AO]

228 hrs. Almost stationary. Now west of 70W.

[Alyono]

that PV streamer may be what keeps this from affecting land