ATL: TEN - Models

[TheStormExpert]

12Z UKMET starts to develop this east of Bahamas and turns it west. Wasn't the UKMET the first to show Gert's redevelopment east of the Bahamas?

The Ukmet tracks for all 3 look very reasonable per climatology, the real question is intensity...

To me it seems the UKMET hasn't been bad when comparing it to several years ago. In fact it seems to be up there with the Euro in performance in my opinion.

[stormreader]

:uarrow: If there is anything left. I know wind shear is constantly changing but that is one GINORMOUS wall of shear currently located north of the Eastern Caribbean.

Feel pretty certain there will be something left. There almost always is. Redevelopment along the north coast of Cuba might be the solution.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS deeper so far through 72 hours or 18z Friday night. About to hit the TUTT...Let's see how 92L holds up.

Corrected for 72 Hours

[SouthFLTropics]

Slightly better defined at 90 hours versus the 12z position from today.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z



18z

[hd44]

Thinking this 92l could develop and then stay weak until it comes closer to Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Better defined than 12z at @108hrs... Still TW/TD

[SouthFLTropics]

12z



18z



She's fighting hard against King TUTT!!!

[hd44]

If 92l maintains enough outflow , it could split the Upper level low and become a bigger threat down the road then the Gfs/Ecmwf show.

Here is the cmc which eventually starts to intensify it down the road. Watch for short term trends in amount of convection this wave produces.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Better defined than 12z at @126hrs... Still TW... Future 93L looks like it's going to catch 92L...

[SFLcane]

Not much here through 126hrs that shear zone is nasty...Really don't know were all these named storms are going to come from NOAA.

[SouthFLTropics]

Orientation of both 92L and future 93L are different this run. Future 93L is more SW while 92L is more NE. Could be some Fujiwara taking place here if they get any closer.

[Blown Away]

Orientation of both 92L and future 93L are different this run. Future 93L is more SW while 92L is more NE. Could be some Fujiwara taking place here if they get any closer.

HP doesn't seem as strong on 18z?

[floridasun78]

who will first to be td 91l or 92l?

[SouthFLTropics]

Not much here through 126hrs that shear zone is nasty...Really don't know were all these named storms are going to come from NOAA.

Wait for it...If it's going to cook it will be as it approaches the Bahamas. It just needs to sustain a vort through the TUTT.

[Blown Away]

132 hrs should start go time, if it's going to go!!

[Blown Away]

18z GFS vorticity is improvement from 12z... Not much, but there is improvement...

[hd44]

132 hrs should start go time, if it's going to go!!

Gfs maintains westerly flow aloft for 92l, which will not allow any development verbatim on the 18z run.

[SFLcane]

Poof at 138hrs

[SouthFLTropics]

12z



18z



More North and better defined than at 12z...but still nothing to get excited about. We may see this gradually increase with each run. Depends on how strong it is when it starts going through the TUTT.