ATL: MARIA - Models

[RL3AO]

It's good to be back to the Happy Hour GFS runs.

[gatorcane]

GFS says why not give the east coast of Florida a direct hit since Irma missed:

[AutoPenalti]

Well, look at the bright side. At least we know this won't happen.



At least I hope not...

[CrazyC83]

GFS says why not give the east coast of Florida a direct hit since Irma missed:

So Maria wants to do the work Irma couldn't completely do?

[SFLcane]

Overall steering is as worrisome as it gets.

[northjaxpro]

First of all, I will not get all uptight on this GFS run. It's too soon for that and we are still talking 9-10 days from this possibility. Lots will change hopefuly AWAY from this scenario.

HOWEVER, it is not too soon to send a prayer up to the higher being to not have any inkling of the GFS solution extending out 10 days to verify. We have had enough!! We don't need this, especially after the pounding Irma just gave everyone across Florida, and the Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

Where was Irma 10 days out??

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS, can you maybe not?

I remember some models were able to accurately place Irma in the vicinity of the Bahamas 10ish days out. So needless to say I'm not putting away my tropical bookmarks bar just yet.

[jlauderdal]

Where was Irma 10 days out??

Festering in the eastern Atlantic with great model support

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS, can you maybe not?

I remember some models were able to accurately place Irma in the vicinity of the Bahamas 10ish days out. So needless to say I'm not putting away my tropical bookmarks bar just yet.

No matter where it goes, the steering setup will most likely be as eerie as it gets once Maria gets near the CONUS. Something to keep in mind.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not taking this storm seriously, but I am taking the position the ridge shown on the GFS quite seriously.

[northjaxpro]

Building 500 mb heights along the Eastern U.S. seaboard as we are just at the peak of hurricane season always is a concern. I just pray that does not verify over the next 10 days!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Still very early but this will be interesting too watch the progression unfold. GFS always has Florida
in the cross hairs. As you guys know there has already been too c4 landfall this season which is unprecedented. Strange days indeed.

[gatorcane]

GFS ensembles like Puerto Rico:

[FLpanhandle91]

So GFS has it's deepening kind of halted around the Bahamas... I'm assuming it's the interaction with this low? Is this the remnants of Jose or a low that breaks off from Jose? The ridge is concerning yes, but the shear environment does not look good north of the islands during the time Lee is supposed to move through there.

[1900hurricane]

It's probably due to the resolution drop off after tau 240 more than anything.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's probably due to the resolution drop off after tau 240 more than anything.

Yep. That thing was a cat 4/5 at landfall for sure.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is the GFS going to do what I think it's going to do?

[cycloneye]

If GFS is right,PR would be without power for many months.

[AutoPenalti]

What in gods name is GFS doing...