ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

18z... Shear on the increase late in the forecast...

Yes but if you have a hurricane where the model has an open wave, that shear forecast is beyond useless.

[tolakram]

IR loop

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband14&lat=14&lon=-55&width=1400&height=900&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=15&quality=90&palette=ir2.pal

[Sanibel]

Could be fighting for inflow with 92L...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Could be fighting for inflow with 92L...

Yeah but in that scenario it would likely win the battle

[Sanibel]

Good situation to come back in 24 hours and see.


Should get land-based wind readings from Barbados...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Good situation to come back in 24 hours and see.


Should get land-based wind readings from Barbados...

Will be interesting if it can sustain all the way to the NW Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

alas, yet another model fail.. I do hope this reliance on models for Genesis stops. until we can not only solve but utilize "Navier–Stokes equations" without truncating among many other fluid/thermo dynamical issues its only prudent to use logic vs. faith in models flawed from the get go. we were better off using models as a guide but it has turned into reliance that has failed more times than has succeeded. I guess it will take a major failure and huge impact to change the recent mentality from the past 10 years of mild seasons..

[Alyono]

latest recon seems to hint at a temporary decrease in organization. The easterly shear should persist for another 12 to 24 hours. Thu, I do not expect any significant intensification until this at least moves into the Caribbean when the easterly shear decreases

[txwatcher91]

latest recon seems to hint at a temporary decrease in organization. The easterly shear should persist for another 12 to 24 hours. Thu, I do not expect any significant intensification until this at least moves into the Caribbean when the easterly shear decreases

HWRF seems to show this too, doesn’t seem to start intensifying it until about 36-48 hours.

[StormTracker]

alas, yet another model fail.. I do hope this reliance on models for Genesis stops. until we can not only solve but utilize "Navier–Stokes equations" without truncating among many other fluid/thermo dynamical issues its only prudent to use logic vs. faith in models flawed from the get go. we were better off using models as a guide but it has turned into reliance that has failed more times than has succeeded. I guess it will take a major failure and huge impact to change the recent mentality from the past 10 years of mild seasons..

I totally agree with you Aric! It's like the cell phone test I perform, when I ask someone what their significant other's phone number is. The usual answer is: "I don't know" (preceeded by upward rolling eyes & "ummm")! We've become too dependent on technology! Sure, models are a great assistant (when proper data is entered & they are programmed correctly), but we have to use our brains again like we used to (logic and common sense)! The GFS vs. Euro war is no longer. I remember when that used to be such a big deal back in the day, when moderators were constantly warning members about some of their posts. Now both models agree with each other, but they're both completely wrong! So, now, what we all should be doing is staying ready & prepared, in wait and see mode until some model is able to "assist" us with what a storm may or may not do, with a least a positive 3 days out scenario...ST

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
800 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...HARVEY HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 56.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[MGC]

That ULL over Cuba looks to be slowing down a bit. That could pose problems for Harvey with shear in the central Caribbean. Not thinking Harvey reaches hurricane intensity at this time.....MGC

[ROCK]

Westward for now.. and a nice anticyclone over head..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Gustywind]

TS HARVEY

17/2345 UTC 13.3N 56.6W T2.0/2.0 HARVEY

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That ULL over Cuba looks to be slowing down a bit. That could pose problems for Harvey with shear in the central Caribbean. Not thinking Harvey reaches hurricane intensity at this time.....MGC

Not saying it will, if the ull does stall it may also provide one hell of a outflow point source
up-stream. But atm the ull you point to does appear to be moving in tandem with the easterly wave to its east.

[NDG]

Squalls already affecting Barbados.

[bg1]

The GFS vs. Euro war is no longer. I remember when that used to be such a big deal back in the day, when moderators were constantly warning members about some of their posts.

I, too, remember 2016.

[Dougiefresh]

Squalls already affecting Barbados.

Yea we had light to moderate sustained rainfall from that squall line and more looks to be on the way from the NE. If only our own radar was working...

[BZSTORM]

Squalls already affecting Barbados.

Yea we had light to moderate sustained rainfall from that squall line and more looks to be on the way from the NE. If only our own radar was working...

I saw Barbados radar is down until Sept 2017 earliest, so what radar are you viewing TS Harvey with NDG?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...HARVEY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

Since an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft departed the storm a
few hours ago, the cloud pattern of Harvey hasn't changed much.
Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 30 kt,
and based on the earlier aircraft measurements the current
intensity is held at 35 kt. The storm is in a moderate easterly
shear environment, which should allow only slow strengthening for
the next couple of days. After that, the dynamical models indicate
that a decrease in shear should occur. As noted earlier, however,
the GFS and ECMWF global models do not show strengthening of Harvey
and in fact practically dissipate it during the forecast period.
This suggests something unfavorable in the environment besides shear
ahead of the system, perhaps some drier air or subsidence. The
official intensity forecast shows modest strengthening and is
generally close to the model consensus which includes the
statistical/dynamical guidance and the regional hurricane models
(that do show some strengthening).

The motion continues westward or 270/16. There is no change to the
track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory package.
Harvey should remain embedded in the flow on the south side of a
strong mid-level ridge throughout most of the forecast period,
which should steer the system on a continued westward track. Near
the end of period, the guidance suggests a slightly more northward
motion with some deceleration. The official forecast track is near
the dynamical model consensus and very close to the previous NHC
track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.0N 57.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 13.2N 59.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 13.6N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 13.9N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 14.1N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 16.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 17.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch