ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

92L is looking better then Harvey this morning imo.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2017081812, , BEST, 0, 168N, 503W, 25, 1010, LO

[p1nheadlarry]

Probably no need to worry about this one anymore. MDR sure ain't what it used to be.

That's a silly statement considering what we just saw with Gert. It's the peak season, every wave has to be monitored. It doesn't take much for one to explode if it can find the right conditions.

While I agree there's still time, I wouldn't call Gert a MDR storm

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[SFLcane]

This is the most convection its had thats for sure..

[tropicwatch]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

That is a little too far east and south to be 92L isn't it?

[SouthFLTropics]

I would guess that it is very likely that the shear from the PV streamer is helping enhance the convection. This wave has been very vigorous from the start which is what has had me concerned. These are the ones to watch out for because they tend to do an admirable job fighting off the bad conditions until the right conditions come along.

[SouthFLTropics]

The water vapor image this morning is very telling. First, you can see the convection being blown off to the NE from the PV streamer. With that said, the vorticity continues to build new convection which is allowing it to survive the shear. Secondly, and possibly more important, you can see the new ULL forming well north up around 30N and 60W and starting to drop to the south. According to the GFS this is what really shreds 92L when it gets north of the islands. Right now it's a foot race. If 92L can get ahead of that ULL dropping down then there may be a chance for survival. If the ULL drops right on top of 92L then it may be game over.

[sma10]

Shear should be on the increase starting soon, not as high as predicted over past few days... 92L should have tough road for next 2-3 days...

Can these shear values be trusted? If these are correct there is no reason why 92L couldn't survive the next 48-72 hours before the values lower to more favorable conditions. Does anyone know where the 12Z data is for this?

[Aric Dunn]

This should be a TS at 11 easy..

[SFLcane]

This should be a TS at 11 easy..

Woah eric thats a bullish call from you. I agree anytime you have a wave or whatever it is moving into the SW Atlantic this time of the year it must be watched.

[Blown Away]

If upgraded, it will be one of those short TS/TD through 72 hours and remnant low late... Check off another name!!!

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

It look open but who knows

[SouthFLTropics]

This should be a TS at 11 easy..

No threat to land at this time...My guess is that they will wait for recon to confirm tomorrow morning. I would guess that they are expecting the convection to get blown off by the shear.

[Blown Away]

Shear should be on the increase starting soon, not as high as predicted over past few days... 92L should have tough road for next 2-3 days...

Can these shear values be trusted? If these are correct there is no reason why 92L couldn't survive the next 48-72 hours before the values lower to more favorable conditions. Does anyone know where the 12Z data is for this?

Here is 12z, look at the difference from 06z... 12z says no chance 92L survives...

[SFLcane]

Just about game over based on those shear values but you never know.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Probably no need to worry about this one anymore. MDR sure ain't what it used to be.

The waves that preceded Andrew and Katrina met a similar early fate over the MDR. I'm not saying this will be as strong as Andrew or Katrina, but you never take your eyes off a wave moving into the Bahamas this time of year. Could conditions still be unfavorable and 92L never develop? Absolutely. In fact, there is a fair chance that 92L will never develop. However, there is a chance the shear will be less over the Bahamas. So it needs to be watched IMHO. My unprofessional forecast is for shear to keep 92L from getting too intense, so I would go with a TS into SFL or the straits. However, it's track towards SFL and NHC's bullish 70% outlook means we cannot take our eyes off of it. If this hits favorable conditions earlier than expected, we could be dealing with something much more dangerous.

[ronjon]

Just about game over based on those shear values but you never know.

No not really - i only see one value greater than 20 kts - and this is one model run. Don't forget these values are difficult to forecast. In addition, the upper level divergence caused by shear will maintain heavy convection so when it relaxes you have conditions favorable for low pressure to develop (or redevelop). Will it struggle the next few days - no doubt. Will probably save FL from a major cane impact.

[gatorcane]

This has been a TD since yesterday evening in my opinion. Convection is sustaining over the center as well. This should be upgraded soon.

One thing is for sure shear is enhancing the convection as we thought it would.

[jlauderdal]

This has been a TD since yesterday evening in my opinion. Convection is sustaining over the center as well. This should be upgraded soon.

One thing is for sure shear is enhancing the convection as we thought it would.

i believe they want to give it the rest of the day, shear going up, why designate only to declassify...lets see..so far its proven to be one of these systems thats a fighter...each one of these entities is different in the way it responds