ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

We can always count on the CMC to give us some excitement. It just got interesting with a new player on the board hitting South Florida in 54 hours

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=170

CMC has another system on florida at 54 hours mmmm

[sma10]

Wow very interesting that CMC wants to develop the current system over the Greater Antilles as well. Maybe a rogue system into the Keys/So Florida this weekend?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like it spawned it from all of that convection across Hispaniola right now.

[tolakram]

What gets me is not so much the lack of significant development by the GFS but it's insistence that the vorticity pretty much dissipates. Really? it did the same thing with Gert, no yellow showed up on the vorticity chart a few runs before it showed it as a hurricane.

[sma10]

Looks like it spawned it from all of that convection across Hispaniola right now.

I wouldn't necessarily put a wager on this happening, however at least the model is partially sane, considering the impressive blowup of convection that we are actually witnessing.

[SouthFLTropics]

What gets me is not so much the lack of significant development by the GFS but it's insistence that the vorticity pretty much dissipates. Really? it did the same thing with Gert, no yellow showed up on the vorticity chart a few runs before it showed it as a hurricane.

It is definitely baffling...I really don't get it. The only thing I can think is that it is seeing way more dry air out there than we realize. But with the performance on Gert I'm very skeptical. We've got a very vigorous swirl that's been surviving against a decent SAL outbreak but it is supposed to just up and die right in the Bahamas. I'm not buying it. I'll gladly eat crow if these models end up being right but something seems way off here.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like it spawned it from all of that convection across Hispaniola right now.

I wouldn't necessarily put a wager on this happening, however at least the model is partially sane, considering the impressive blowup of convection that we are actually witnessing.

Betting on anything in the Tropics this year would be like placing $10,000 down on the Dolphins to win the Super Bowl this year. You just don't do it!!!

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.4N 64.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 72 19.4N 64.4W 1010 29
0000UTC 21.08.2017 84 20.6N 67.3W 1010 31
1200UTC 21.08.2017 96 21.1N 69.8W 1010 37
0000UTC 22.08.2017 108 21.7N 72.2W 1007 39
1200UTC 22.08.2017 120 22.2N 74.1W 1002 47
0000UTC 23.08.2017 132 22.3N 75.5W 996 53
1200UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 76.5W 990 56

UKMET doubles down

[SouthFLTropics]

Round 2 headed towards South Florida on the CMC 114 Hour for 92L

[stormlover2013]

where does UKMET it have 92l?

[SouthFLTropics]

where does UKMET it have 92l?

Looks to be SE of Andros Island on a westerly heading. No sign of the hook north on the end of that run. Extrapolated would take it alongshore north Cuba and through the straights.

[WeatherEmperor]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.4N 64.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 72 19.4N 64.4W 1010 29
0000UTC 21.08.2017 84 20.6N 67.3W 1010 31
1200UTC 21.08.2017 96 21.1N 69.8W 1010 37
0000UTC 22.08.2017 108 21.7N 72.2W 1007 39
1200UTC 22.08.2017 120 22.2N 74.1W 1002 47
0000UTC 23.08.2017 132 22.3N 75.5W 996 53
1200UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 76.5W 990 56

UKMET doubles down

More like the Ukmet tripples down. One of these models is gonna bust big time. The wuestion is which one?


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[SouthFLTropics]

CMC 180 hours...after diving into the North shore of Cuba

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC 180 hours...after diving into the North shore of Cuba. Note the trough dropping through the SE US. This is going north shortly.

[PTrackerLA]

Oh boy, the UKMET consistency is quite concerning for 92L. I remember it performed very well with Matthew.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Canadian remaining consistent as well:

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC 222 Hours...Headed NW

[sma10]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.4N 64.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 72 19.4N 64.4W 1010 29
0000UTC 21.08.2017 84 20.6N 67.3W 1010 31
1200UTC 21.08.2017 96 21.1N 69.8W 1010 37
0000UTC 22.08.2017 108 21.7N 72.2W 1007 39
1200UTC 22.08.2017 120 22.2N 74.1W 1002 47
0000UTC 23.08.2017 132 22.3N 75.5W 996 53
1200UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 76.5W 990 56

UKMET doubles down

More like the Ukmet tripples down. One of these models is gonna bust big time. The wuestion is which one?


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FWIW, please note that the UK position at 144 hours is virtually identical in position and strength as the CMC. Unfortunately the UK does not go any further than 144, so we do not know if it does the Cuban dive like the CMC, but for the time being having that type of agreement at day 6, really calls the GFS ideas into question. I suppose in a couple of hours we'll see what Euro says at T144 to see which camp it's in.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is starting to look like a Katrina/Ike senario.