ATL: JOSE - Models

[aperson]

ECMWF ends with imminent landfall. Another steering collapse due to ridge interaction and then gets pushed W as the ridge exits east.

[tiger_deF]

This seems like the season of steering collapses... The past 3 storms (Harvey, Irma, Jose) have all been affected by at least 1 collapse of steering currents and models show that Jose may have another one.

[weathaguyry]

Yep, I gotta watch this one now, it seems to do what Hermine's track was supposed to do (stall off the east coast)

[weathaguyry]

For what it's worth, here's the NAVGEM

[GCANE]

Not a comforting wobble to the west at the end with 00Z Euro

[tolakram]

0Z Euro run

[funster]

Wow, wild Euro track. Many days away though. It would be weird for NC to have a hurricane approaching from the northeast.

[Alyono]

Jose is already about a half degree south of where the UK said it would be now

[weathaguyry]

I'm not liking these trends, a Landfall in the NE would be FAR more destructive than any sort of NC Landfall, because NC is prepared well for hurricanes, but the NE is not at all. With most of the houses in my village still in the process of being raised from Sandy, I am definitely keeping an eye out with this one.

[drezee]

Jose is already about a half degree south of where the UK said it would be now

Deep pulsing storms can follow upper level winds. If it keeps pulling the LLC with the MLC convection

[weathaguyry]

I still think that the models are a little too bullish with the storm getting stopped and pushed due West

[Fountainguy97]

I still think that the models are a little too bullish with the storm getting stopped and pushed due West

Any thought process behind this?

[CrazyC83]

I still think that the models are a little too bullish with the storm getting stopped and pushed due West

Any thought process behind this?

That would be the ridge rebuilding over the north Atlantic blocking a path east? Then it just waits for a trough...or for the ridge to reopen...

[PTPatrick]

Seems like any track with significant time north of OBX that close to the coast would be a weak or subtropical kind of threat. Which isn't to say that has to be insignificant, sandy was subtropical, but she also didn't just sit off the coast of the mid Atlantic for a few days.

[weathaguyry]

I still think that the models are a little too bullish with the storm getting stopped and pushed due West

Any thought process behind this?

That would be the ridge rebuilding over the north Atlantic blocking a path east? Then it just waits for a trough...or for the ridge to reopen...

Just an opinion based on its current SE movement, it doesn't look to be stopping any time soon, again, just an amateur opinion not to be taken as fact

[Fountainguy97]

Any thought process behind this?

That would be the ridge rebuilding over the north Atlantic blocking a path east? Then it just waits for a trough...or for the ridge to reopen...

Just an opinion based on its current SE movement, it doesn't look to be stopping any time soon, again, just an amateur opinion not to be taken as fact

Ok just curious. Seems to have stalled last few frames. may be a few ticks southeast of most model plots though. Next few hours will tell us the story.

12z gfs running anytime

[Alyono]

GFS MUCH weaker and has shifted well to the east as a result

[txwatcher91]

GFS MUCH weaker and has shifted well to the east as a result

The track of Jose seems to be mostly dependent on how strong he is over the next 24-48 hours. The GFS seems to indicate this would become a naked swirl or close to one by tomorrow afternoon before shear lets up.

[txwatcher91]

CMC and GFS are both north/east by a good amount on the 12z runs. It seems a weaker, sheared Jose will travel under the ridge and cut north with a possible threat to Nova Scotia or the NE states.

[Alyono]

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2017 0 25.6N 65.7W 975 68
0000UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 65.6W 968 72
1200UTC 14.09.2017 24 24.8N 66.6W 969 74
0000UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.3N 68.2W 969 76
1200UTC 15.09.2017 48 26.0N 70.3W 969 77
0000UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.0N 72.0W 967 73
1200UTC 16.09.2017 72 27.9N 73.3W 959 82
0000UTC 17.09.2017 84 28.6N 73.8W 955 81
1200UTC 17.09.2017 96 29.6N 73.9W 947 82
0000UTC 18.09.2017 108 31.1N 73.8W 940 80
1200UTC 18.09.2017 120 32.2N 74.1W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 132 33.2N 74.1W 943 68
1200UTC 19.09.2017 144 34.7N 74.0W 948 68