ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

It'll be interesting to see if the EURO joins the west trend. When does the Next run come out? I don't see this getting father west than NOLA but that's just my opinion

Starts running in about 30 min

[txwatcher91]

HWRF nearing LA Coast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=788

Regardless of track, it's quite concerning the HWRF is showing a cat 3 with 957mb pressure only 78 hours out. Verbatim, this run of the HWRF looks like it would be bad indeed for the LA coast especially the right front quad.

[stormreader]

Although the HWRF is not finished running, it appears it wants to send 16 into the Yucatan, clipping it on the NE corner.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=16L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017100412&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=483

It also suggests the possibility of rapid intensification over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, should the system only clip Nicaragua and the Yucatán Peninsula. The 12Z HWRF brings the system to 83 knots as it nears the Yucatán, then shows re-intensification into a potential major hurricane over the Gulf Loop Current. The pressure dips to 963 mb by day four (12Z/07 Oct), as can be seen here. The HWRF's intensity estimate could well be accurate if it were to correctly resolve the location of the low. If the system were to interact minimally with land, then the upper-end forecast could certainly verify. Do not preclude a major hurricane at some point, especially over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf.

Agree. Not saying it will happen, but its hard to simply just rule out some kind of" significant" storm in the gulf. Early October storms, whether in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico, are very often important storms. I would tend to look for very strong reasons why it won't be at least a Cat 2-3 type of storm at this time of year, having emerged from the deep tropics, and spending that much time over the the open Gulf of Mexico.

[ronjon]

Actually biggest difference is the Euro has the Bahamas disturbance ride up the east coast of Fl while the other models deepen it and move it W-NW into the GOM. In this case, the future track of Nate really depends on that disturbance in the central Bahamas.

[bella_may]

HWRF headed towards the MS coast as a 958mb storm

[bqknight]

It's hard to go against the Euro this year. I've only paid full attention to a few storms but has the GFS outperformed the Euro at all this year?

[Alyono]

while this si exceptionally weak, the microwave imagery is showing a well formed low level structure. Could lead to future rapid intensification

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF nearing LA Coast. Looks to hit MS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=788

Maybe it's just me, but Nate looks like an unusually small storm on the hwrf

[Pearl River]

Looks like maybe a recurve by the HWRF as it hits the Mouth of the Mississippi. Looks bad for lower Plaquemines Parish if this continues.


Looks to be between Biloxi and Pascagoula.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041723
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 28 20171004
171530 1220N 08156W 9768 00282 0089 +226 +219 127020 021 023 002 03
171600 1222N 08157W 9768 00281 0088 +229 +217 126020 021 024 000 00
171630 1223N 08158W 9770 00280 0088 +231 +215 123021 021 025 000 00
171700 1224N 08200W 9772 00280 0089 +230 +216 120020 021 024 000 00
171730 1225N 08201W 9770 00279 0086 +234 +216 116022 023 024 001 03
171800 1226N 08203W 9768 00277 0082 +232 +217 120023 023 024 001 00
171830 1227N 08204W 9769 00273 0079 +231 +217 112025 025 024 002 00
171900 1227N 08206W 9774 00268 0078 +228 +217 110026 028 027 003 00
171930 1228N 08208W 9773 00268 0076 +232 +218 105028 028 029 002 03
172000 1227N 08210W 9770 00268 0074 +232 +215 101027 029 /// /// 03
172030 1226N 08211W 9773 00264 0073 +231 +216 100024 026 029 000 00
172100 1225N 08212W 9772 00264 0072 +230 +224 111021 023 028 001 00
172130 1223N 08212W 9772 00264 0071 +231 +223 117015 019 022 000 00
172200 1222N 08213W 9768 00265 0069 +230 +225 123015 015 021 001 01
172230 1221N 08214W 9770 00263 0068 +232 +227 128015 016 023 000 01
172300 1220N 08215W 9770 00262 0066 +232 +227 138016 017 023 001 00
172330 1219N 08217W 9769 00259 0064 +232 +225 149011 015 024 001 00
172400 1218N 08218W 9771 00257 //// +221 //// 176005 009 022 003 01
172430 1217N 08219W 9769 00259 //// +218 //// 289003 004 023 003 01
172500 1216N 08220W 9772 00258 //// +227 //// 341008 009 020 001 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

low levels not nearly as organized as satellite appears... good news. however RI is still quite likely..

[CrazyC83]

Looks like maybe a recurve by the HWRF as it hits the Mouth of the Mississippi. Looks bad for lower Plaquemines Parish if this continues.


Looks to be between Biloxi and Pascagoula.

That's a right shift from earlier runs, which had it west of NOLA.

[slamdaddy]

Looks like HWRF would take it right over top of my house.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro...

12z GFS...

12z GFS is @480 miles W of the 00z Euro... The GFS moves 16L significantly faster than the Euro... I think the forward speed will tell the story with regards to a CONUS landfall, it seems a slower moving 16L will be more E... One model going to be significantly wrong...

[Cat5Danny]

Good day to everybody! I am so happy that this site exists, it has helped me and my family to be ahead of the curve during hurricane season over the years!! Wanted to ask to all of the well informed and smart members here if we are safe to say that we do not need to worry about this one here in Miami?
Will greatly appreciate your inpits.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041734
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 29 20171004
172530 1214N 08221W 9769 00263 0066 +229 +226 356010 011 019 002 00
172600 1213N 08222W 9770 00262 0067 +228 +224 340009 010 024 004 00
172630 1212N 08224W 9772 00260 0068 +228 +224 319010 013 025 003 00
172700 1211N 08225W 9769 00264 0068 +231 //// 308013 014 026 007 01
172730 1210N 08226W 9772 00262 0068 +230 +229 308012 013 026 002 01
172800 1209N 08227W 9768 00267 0069 +231 +225 309012 013 022 002 00
172830 1208N 08228W 9772 00264 0071 +228 +223 307012 013 022 000 01
172900 1207N 08229W 9771 00265 //// +227 //// 302014 015 021 001 01
172930 1206N 08230W 9771 00265 0072 +225 +224 300015 015 020 000 01
173000 1205N 08231W 9771 00265 0072 +225 +223 301015 016 020 000 03
173030 1203N 08232W 9769 00267 0072 +224 +223 302016 016 021 001 01
173100 1202N 08233W 9770 00265 //// +220 //// 308015 016 022 002 01
173130 1201N 08234W 9773 00265 0074 +224 +223 311015 016 023 003 01
173200 1200N 08236W 9768 00270 0074 +226 +221 313015 016 025 002 00
173230 1159N 08237W 9771 00267 0074 +225 +220 316015 016 022 002 00
173300 1158N 08238W 9771 00268 0074 +226 +217 316015 016 022 002 00
173330 1157N 08239W 9770 00269 0075 +225 +215 313014 015 023 001 00
173400 1156N 08240W 9771 00269 0075 +227 +213 310014 015 021 002 00
173430 1155N 08241W 9768 00271 0076 +225 +223 314012 012 022 001 00
173500 1154N 08242W 9770 00269 0076 +227 +221 312013 013 022 001 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

Good day to everybody! I am so happy that this site exists, it has helped me and my family to be ahead of the curve during hurricane season over the years!! Wanted to ask to all of the well informed and smart members here if we are safe to say that we do not need to worry about this one here in Miami?
Will greatly appreciate your inpits.

NHC says Florida to Louisiana needs to monitor... Never turn your back on an October storm in the Caribbean, crazy tracks happen late in season...

[Audrey2Katrina]

low levels not nearly as organized as satellite appears... good news. however RI is still quite likely..

Good news? RI isn't "good news" for anyone that will be in this things path. I concur that it's an enjoyable hobby to follow these things--but I never root for them to get dangerous to life and limb, especially when they're in an enclosed area like the GOM. Out to sea... they can become a Cat 7 for all I care-- as long as they eventually go extratropical and diminish out there. JMHO. (And yes I know about Cat 7 being a fiction--that was deliberate sarcasm)

[Steve]

HMON SCLA Coast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 17:32Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 17:24:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°17'N 82°19'W (12.2833N 82.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 297 statute miles (477 km) to the NW (320°) from Panama City, Panama.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 29kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 33.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 305m (1,001ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 305m (1,001ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (41°) from the flight level center at 17:20:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet