ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4181 Postby WxGuy1 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:40 pm

Shuriken wrote:
CryHavoc wrote:...It is certainly terrifying, but please don't conflate tornadic winds with hurricane winds. There is a strong updraft component to tornadoes that makes their damage much more considerable to well-constructed housing, as a hurricane's winds are mostly horizontal. The "lifting" of a tornadic wind is responsible for a large portion of the damage it does.
The winds in either are mainly lateral. Extreme winds blow into the weakest part of a structure, inflate it like a balloon until the roof lifts off and is whisked away. Integrity comprised, the rest of it is then easily torn apart.

Be that as it may, the eyewalls of very intense hurricanes contain updraft vortices on par with tornadoes: The "Great Hurricane of 1780" debarked trees and lifted iron cannon into the air. It demolished stone forts. (And this occurred on the weak side of that storm!)


CryHavoc is correct. The vertical component of wind in tornadoes can be VERY strong (sometimes even exceeding that of the horizontal component). In corner flow collapse, there is modeling evidence to suggest that winds can even exceed Mach 1 on very short time and spatial scales. The radial inflow layer in most tornadoes is very shallow (perhaps only 1 meter deep), which is much different the wind profile seen in tropical cyclones. In addition, the extremely strong accelerations that structures inside a tornado can experience on account of rapid changes in wind speed and direction contribute to the damage. On the other hand, structures in a tropical cyclone experience strong winds for a longer amount of time even though the gradients (in wind speed and direction) are much less.

Although we'd like to compare tornadic wind speeds with those in tropical cyclones, the underlying pressure fields are much different, and the structure flow isn't very similar. As such, it's probably not worth comparing the two outside other than "for entertainment purposes only".

I don't have much to add other than to note that the minimum central pressure is surprisingly high for such strong max winds. However, the area of hurricane-force winds is pretty small (latest advisory notes "up to 60 miles outside the center"). Even though some islands may close to the eyewall, there's a pretty huge difference in wind speeds even in only a few miles' distance. Literally every mile matters to the folks who will affected by Irma.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4182 Postby Callista » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:41 pm

Yes, I agree; hurricane and tornado winds are qualitatively different. The only reason we have to ride out tornadoes in the shelters is that we can't get enough warning to evacuate when one is going to hit our neighborhood. Even the weakest tornado is more destructive than a hurricane with the same wind speed. With a hurricane, the wind blows pretty much in one direction at a time. Tornadoes are much smaller; you get wind blowing one way, then the other, picking things up and dropping them or blowing them into your house. It's like the difference between a steady hard push and a vigorous shaking back and forth. Of course, with tornadoes we inland folk don't get the major flooding and rain that coastal areas get with hurricanes, and they're over much more quickly. Different phenomena.
Last edited by Callista on Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4183 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:42 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
ObsessedMiami wrote:Miami Dade schools closed Thursday and Friday


Broward likely to follow suit shortly.

Monroe County schools closing tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#4184 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:51 pm

All low-level missions into Irma so far

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4185 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:51 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:Miami Dade schools closed Thursday and Friday
excellent move, they are giving plenty of time for preparation, keeping employees at school an extra day then rushing friday would be a huge mistake..plus parents get to utilize free labor with the kids at home, i already have a task list ready for mine but she doesn't know it yet :grrr:

this is an incredibly dangerous situation, good to see all the preps going on in broward, i see hurricane shutters going up slowly and people getting supplies, never seen it happen this far in advance, this is the way to mobilize..can you imagine taking the brunt of this thing in a condo say 10 stories and up, ouch
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4186 Postby fd122 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:58 pm

What's an interesting coincidence is that Hurricane Luis in '95 hit us in Antigua on September 5th as well.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4187 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:59 pm

Broward to issue press conference at 3pm to discuss evacuation orders and school closings.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4188 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:05 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Broward to issue press conference at 3pm to discuss evacuation orders and school closings.
since all is quiet up in martin county i am thankful that blown away has offered to come down and help me hoist storm panels later this week :D
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4189 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:08 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4190 Postby CryHavoc » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:09 pm



Truly frightening. There's nothing stopping it from intensifying further. That doesn't necessarily mean it will, but it's hard to fathom a 200mph hurricane in the Atlantic -- or anywhere. If Patricia had not happened 2 years ago it would be even more shocking.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4191 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:09 pm

Shuriken wrote:
CryHavoc wrote:...It is certainly terrifying, but please don't conflate tornadic winds with hurricane winds. There is a strong updraft component to tornadoes that makes their damage much more considerable to well-constructed housing, as a hurricane's winds are mostly horizontal. The "lifting" of a tornadic wind is responsible for a large portion of the damage it does.
The winds in either are mainly lateral. Extreme winds blow into the weakest part of a structure, inflate it like a balloon until the roof lifts off and is whisked away. Integrity comprised, the rest of it is then easily torn apart.

Be that as it may, the eyewalls of very intense hurricanes contain updraft vortices on par with tornadoes: The "Great Hurricane of 1780" debarked trees and lifted iron cannon into the air. It demolished stone forts. (And this occurred on the weak side of that storm!)


Pressure gradients responsible, too, for "blowing a house up" when the inside of the house is trying to equalize the pressure to the outside (which is VERY LOW in either a tornado OR hurricane - both "cyclones," btw).

This will start a debate, I know, but I subscribe to the old theory of leaving a window open on the opposite side of the storm in order to equalize pressure in a house during the height of a hurricane in order to help a home NOT "blow apart" from the inside.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4192 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:11 pm


Not all that surprising, we thought 48 hours ago GFS and Euro were overblowing the intensities.

Terrible, Terrible news for the islands. I pray for all them.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4193 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:12 pm


That is insane. I wonder how long it'll continue until the next EWRC.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4194 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:12 pm

CryHavoc wrote:


Truly frightening. There's nothing stopping it from intensifying further. That doesn't necessarily mean it will, but it's hard to fathom a 200mph hurricane in the Atlantic -- or anywhere. If Patricia had not happened 2 years ago it would be even more shocking.


Earlier today there was a debate about Pac storms vs Atlantic storms and their ability to go higher than 200 mph. I've always wondered about that! Did we ever see the devastation in Pacific theater after a 200 mph storm had blown through? How do those buildings survive?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4195 Postby CryHavoc » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:13 pm

Michele B wrote:
Pressure gradients responsible, too, for "blowing a house up" when the inside of the house is trying to equalize the pressure to the outside (which is VERY LOW in either a tornado OR hurricane - both "cyclones," btw).

This will start a debate, I know, but I subscribe to the old theory of leaving a window open on the opposite side of the storm in order to equalize pressure in a house during the height of a hurricane in order to help a home NOT "blow apart" from the inside.


This is a bit off-topic, but tornadoes "blowing up" houses is a long-debunked myth. Opening a window is one of the worst things you can possibly do in a tornado or any cyclone, as it gives the wind a much more powerful grip on the house or structure. Anytime you increase aerodynamic drag on an object you stress it more, and allow the force to more readily compromise the structure as the force gains more surface area to directly influence said structure.

No one should ever open a window to prevent damage to their house in a cyclonic storm. Doing so only allows debris to enter the home and allows the wind to gain a foothold on tearing the structure apart.
Last edited by CryHavoc on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4196 Postby HurricaneA » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:15 pm



That tweet gives me complete discomfort, quite like how I felt with Patricia. I'm praying for those in the path of this monster.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4197 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:16 pm

It's starting to look like a west pacific typhoon - say Tip.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip
Last edited by ronjon on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4198 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:16 pm

The Ocean-Heat Content that spun Irma up to Cat 5 is basically going to be the same all the way to Florida.
Approach shows a saturated air column.
Given that and the perfect upper-level conditions depicted by 355K PV, pretty much keeps Irma very likely a Cat 5 all the way to the coast.
Prayers for everyone in the path of this monster.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4199 Postby KBBOCA » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:16 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image


I'm concerned Irma seems to keep hugging that 17 latitude line. Can someone tell me how this compares to forecast points? Really hoping she'll pull north so as to miss Barbuda & Anguilla which right now look to be in line for direct hits.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4200 Postby KBBOCA » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:19 pm

Kazmit wrote:Anguilla webcam. Some pretty large swells already pushing water all the way up the beach.

https://www.earthcam.com/world/anguilla/meadsbay/?cam=barnesbay


Thank you for sharing this. My heart is just breaking for folks on Anguilla right in the cross hairs of this storm... I hope others will share links that can help us follow what's happening in the Islands.
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