ATL: TEN - Models

[stormlover2013]

Rita type track

https://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive ... 200517.gif

[Nimbus]

All the models still have that huge ridge out there, no trough digging far enough south.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC 234 hours...headed North...Hello Pensacola. I believe that almost identical to the 00z run last night. IvanHater is not a fan of the CMC right now!!!

[cajungal]

Rita type track

https://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive ... 200517.gif

Do you really think it will get that far west? I remember in 2012, Isaac was supposed to hit the panhandle but it passed over SE Louisiana instead.

[Blown Away]

GFS/Euro basically say nada for 92L, hard to go against that...

[SFLcane]

Ukmet you got my attention!

[stormlover2013]

All the models still have that huge ridge out there, no trough digging far enough south.

[Javlin]

Will be interesting to see if anything comes of the mess N of Hispaniola(per/CMC) if so 92L's track will be of most important to those in the GOM region.Just looking for verification.



edit:need to remember my landmasses

[stormlover2013]

Gfs has been really bad though blown away

[Javlin]

All the models still have that huge ridge out there, no trough digging far enough south.

But we had a couple of fronts in the last 3-4 weeks make it all the way to the coast.

[Rockin4NOLA]

CMC 234 hours...headed North...Hello Pensacola. I believe that almost identical to the 00z run last night. IvanHater is not a fan of the CMC right now!!!

Um.....*gulp*. We are having major issues with our drainage system here in New Orleans....

[gatorcane]

All the models still have that huge ridge out there, no trough digging far enough south.

The ridge looks to collapse due to a strong Upper-Level Low over SE Canada by days 6 and 7. That could suggest if something develops it will try to turn north at some point assuming the models are correct on this trough. GFS 12Z 500MB pattern showing trough:

[blp]

GFS/Euro basically say nada for 92L, hard to go against that...

Not sure I follow you on the Euro nada comment. The Euro had last night a Tropical Storm over Florida.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS/Euro basically say nada for 92L, hard to go against that...

This ain't the same GFS though. It's a hot mess with a pretty name. If these same model physics ran with the name NAV or BAM then we wouldn't even look.

[Javlin]

GFS/Euro basically say nada for 92L, hard to go against that...

Not hard but easy this year those two poor performance thus far 92L may be a sleeper much like Andrew was ....

[Blown Away]

GFS/Euro basically say nada for 92L, hard to go against that...

Not sure I follow you on the Euro nada comment. The Euro had last night a Tropical Storm over Florida.

Euro was questionable TS intensity over SFL, maybe TD, but most likely a strong TW/Low...

[gatorcane]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.4N 64.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 72 19.4N 64.4W 1010 29
0000UTC 21.08.2017 84 20.6N 67.3W 1010 31
1200UTC 21.08.2017 96 21.1N 69.8W 1010 37
0000UTC 22.08.2017 108 21.7N 72.2W 1007 39
1200UTC 22.08.2017 120 22.2N 74.1W 1002 47
0000UTC 23.08.2017 132 22.3N 75.5W 996 53
1200UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 76.5W 990 56

UKMET doubles down

12Z UKMET image out through 144 hours. It has a trough as well with Upper-Low over SE Canada. You would think if the UKMET went beyond 144 hours that it would try to start recurving this system as it feels the weakness, possibly over Florida or in the vicinity of.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.4N 64.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 72 19.4N 64.4W 1010 29
0000UTC 21.08.2017 84 20.6N 67.3W 1010 31
1200UTC 21.08.2017 96 21.1N 69.8W 1010 37
0000UTC 22.08.2017 108 21.7N 72.2W 1007 39
1200UTC 22.08.2017 120 22.2N 74.1W 1002 47
0000UTC 23.08.2017 132 22.3N 75.5W 996 53
1200UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 76.5W 990 56

UKMET doubles down

12Z UKMET image out through 144 hours. It has a trough as well with Upper-Low over SE Canada. You would think if the UKMET went beyond 144 hours that it would try to start recurving this system as it feels the weakness, possibly over Florida or in the vicinity of.

There is 3 scenarios at play in this situation
1. The trough moves through and this curves OTS after impacting the Bahamas
2. The trough gets stuck over the Eastern US causing this system to stall out and meander until a ridge builds back in and sends this west
3. The trough doesn't dive deep enough and the strong Bermuda high forces this into Cuba then towards Mexico!!!!
Scenario 1 is most likely IMO as of now

[Alyono]

based upon that UK, it would recurve in the middle of the Gulf when it feels the trough that is over BC in that panel

[stormlover2013]

And we are still 10 days out