ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Looks 1006mb/30kt is about right. Not far from advisory intensity.

[Airboy]

low levels not nearly as organized as satellite appears... good news. however RI is still quite likely..

Good news? RI isn't "good news" for anyone that will be in this things path. I concur that it's an enjoyable hobby to follow these things--but I never root for them to get dangerous to life and limb, especially when they're in an enclosed area like the GOM. Out to sea... they can become a Cat 7 for all I care-- as long as they eventually go extratropical and diminish out there. JMHO. (And yes I know about Cat 7 being a fiction--that was deliberate sarcasm)

The good news was that it was not so well organized?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Has there been recon data posted yet? Just curious.

[GCANE]

[Audrey2Katrina]

low levels not nearly as organized as satellite appears... good news. however RI is still quite likely..

Good news? RI isn't "good news" for anyone that will be in this things path. I concur that it's an enjoyable hobby to follow these things--but I never root for them to get dangerous to life and limb, especially when they're in an enclosed area like the GOM. Out to sea... they can become a Cat 7 for all I care-- as long as they eventually go extratropical and diminish out there. JMHO. (And yes I know about Cat 7 being a fiction--that was deliberate sarcasm)

The good news was that it was not so well organized?

Touche! I stand corrected! Thanks

[rockyman]

12z Euro just initialized. Follow it here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00412&fh=0

[BZSTORM]

GFS has another (even larger) Western Caribbean system in the long-range 12-14 days from now. See global models thread. Buckle up everybody.

well lets hope that's a model hallucinogen but that's for the heads up 16 days is very long way out but Oct is the historical month for cyclone hits to Belize

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041744
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 30 20171004
173530 1153N 08243W 9770 00270 0077 +231 +217 312013 014 022 002 00
173600 1151N 08245W 9772 00270 0077 +235 +214 310014 015 022 001 00
173630 1150N 08246W 9772 00270 0077 +233 +217 315015 015 021 001 00
173700 1149N 08247W 9770 00273 0078 +230 +222 316015 016 021 000 00
173730 1148N 08248W 9770 00271 0078 +230 +226 321015 015 020 001 00
173800 1147N 08249W 9773 00269 0078 +235 +224 318014 015 020 000 00
173830 1146N 08250W 9771 00273 0079 +235 +223 316014 015 020 001 00
173900 1145N 08251W 9770 00274 0080 +235 +220 314014 015 019 000 00
173930 1144N 08252W 9772 00271 0080 +235 +222 309015 015 019 000 00
174000 1143N 08254W 9774 00270 0080 +234 +224 311014 015 018 000 00
174030 1142N 08255W 9768 00276 0081 +231 +223 307014 015 019 000 00
174100 1141N 08256W 9770 00276 0082 +230 +219 303011 014 018 000 00
174130 1140N 08257W 9770 00276 0083 +231 +219 303010 012 017 001 00
174200 1139N 08258W 9772 00275 0083 +230 +218 310016 017 019 001 00
174230 1138N 08300W 9769 00277 0083 +228 +223 300015 015 021 001 03
174300 1137N 08301W 9770 00276 0082 +228 +223 298017 018 022 002 01
174330 1135N 08301W 9769 00276 0083 +225 +223 299018 019 025 003 00
174400 1134N 08302W 9772 00275 0084 +223 //// 297018 019 025 004 01
174430 1133N 08303W 9765 00281 0084 +229 //// 299017 018 024 005 01
174500 1132N 08304W 9772 00275 0084 +232 +228 302016 017 022 003 01
$$
;

[SootyTern]

Good day to everybody! I am so happy that this site exists, it has helped me and my family to be ahead of the curve during hurricane season over the years!! Wanted to ask to all of the well informed and smart members here if we are safe to say that we do not need to worry about this one here in Miami?
Will greatly appreciate your inpits.

I wouldn't worry about it at this time, but keep an eye on it at least until it is north of our latitude to see how things progress.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro looks like landfall Nicaragua.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041754
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 31 20171004
174530 1131N 08305W 9771 00277 0085 +235 +225 302016 016 021 001 00
174600 1130N 08306W 9769 00279 0085 +235 +226 302016 017 022 001 00
174630 1129N 08307W 9771 00279 0087 +235 +225 303017 017 022 000 00
174700 1128N 08308W 9770 00279 0087 +235 +225 301017 018 019 001 00
174730 1127N 08310W 9770 00280 0088 +235 +226 299018 019 019 002 03
174800 1125N 08310W 9765 00285 0087 +235 +227 294020 021 020 002 03
174830 1124N 08309W 9753 00297 0088 +235 +220 291019 021 023 000 03
174900 1123N 08307W 9768 00282 0090 +237 +217 282018 020 022 001 00
174930 1123N 08305W 9767 00286 0091 +235 +221 280018 018 021 002 00
175000 1123N 08303W 9765 00288 0091 +235 +221 280019 019 023 001 00
175030 1123N 08301W 9765 00288 0092 +235 +219 280018 019 023 002 00
175100 1123N 08259W 9765 00288 0092 +234 +220 281018 019 025 002 00
175130 1123N 08257W 9765 00288 0092 +231 +223 281018 019 026 001 00
175200 1123N 08255W 9765 00288 0092 +229 +224 281019 020 023 005 00
175230 1123N 08255W 9765 00288 0092 +230 +224 277019 019 025 004 00
175300 1123N 08250W 9764 00288 0093 +230 +223 272018 019 024 004 00
175330 1122N 08248W 9765 00290 0092 +230 +227 272019 019 025 004 00
175400 1122N 08246W 9766 00287 0092 +231 +229 269018 019 024 005 00
175430 1122N 08244W 9766 00288 0091 +231 +227 266018 019 026 004 00
175500 1122N 08242W 9766 00287 0092 +229 +229 266017 018 025 005 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Good news? RI isn't "good news" for anyone that will be in this things path. I concur that it's an enjoyable hobby to follow these things--but I never root for them to get dangerous to life and limb, especially when they're in an enclosed area like the GOM. Out to sea... they can become a Cat 7 for all I care-- as long as they eventually go extratropical and diminish out there. JMHO. (And yes I know about Cat 7 being a fiction--that was deliberate sarcasm)

The good news was that it was not so well organized?

Touche! I stand corrected! Thanks

yes.. apologies.. I write funny sometimes. My brain is weird.

[PSUHiker31]

I'm very perturbed that the 12Z GFS ensembles were on the TX/LA border... Even further west than the operational.

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro looks like landfall Nicaragua.

That's quite a large 'left' shift @ 24 hours

[Pearl River]

EURO has a big jump north at 48 hours.

[bqknight]

EURO has a big jump north at 48 hours.

It's nearly identical to the last run. If you click "Previous Run" you can see it hits Nicaragua and then bounces North. This run is a hair further south out at 48 hours.

[ColdMiser123]

Euro a tick south of 12z yesterday and a touch weaker. A touch stronger than 0z through 48.

[stormlover2013]

high pressue looks stronger though lets see if it stays stronger

[ColdMiser123]

991 just NE of the Yucatan Peninsula at hour 66.

[Blown Away]

Euro appears to be faster than previous runs which might push W???