ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041804
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 32 20171004
175530 1122N 08240W 9765 00288 0093 +228 //// 266018 018 025 006 01
175600 1122N 08238W 9769 00285 0093 +223 //// 275018 019 028 006 01
175630 1123N 08236W 9765 00288 0093 +222 //// 267019 019 026 005 01
175700 1123N 08233W 9764 00290 0093 +222 +222 268020 021 026 007 00
175730 1123N 08231W 9768 00286 0094 +220 +220 267021 021 027 009 00
175800 1124N 08229W 9766 00287 0094 +221 //// 263020 021 025 005 01
175830 1124N 08227W 9765 00288 0094 +217 //// 262021 021 025 006 01
175900 1124N 08225W 9766 00288 0096 +217 //// 263019 020 028 006 01
175930 1124N 08223W 9768 00286 0095 +216 //// 254021 024 027 006 01
180000 1125N 08221W 9765 00290 0097 +215 //// 259024 025 029 005 01
180030 1125N 08218W 9769 00288 0096 +222 //// 258022 023 025 004 05
180100 1124N 08216W 9763 00292 0095 +226 //// 258023 024 027 002 01
180130 1123N 08215W 9767 00288 0095 +229 +229 262021 023 027 002 01
180200 1122N 08213W 9766 00293 //// +230 //// 260021 022 026 003 05
180230 1121N 08211W 9764 00298 0100 +234 +228 226020 021 /// /// 03
180300 1122N 08209W 9764 00298 0100 +233 +226 212019 020 022 002 00
180330 1123N 08207W 9765 00297 0101 +231 +224 211018 018 022 001 00
180400 1124N 08205W 9767 00296 0102 +230 +225 209017 018 023 001 00
180430 1125N 08203W 9765 00298 0102 +230 +222 211017 018 023 002 00
180500 1125N 08201W 9771 00293 0103 +230 +217 218017 018 023 001 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 041732
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 04/17:24:30Z
B. 12 deg 17 min N
082 deg 19 min W
C. NA
D. 29 kt
E. 042 deg 12 nm
F. 101 deg 29 kt
G. 041 deg 14 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 24 C / 305 m
J. 23 C / 305 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 01DDA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 29 KT 041 / 14 NM 17:20:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[stormlover2013]

high pressure is stronger also

[ColdMiser123]

Almost lock in step with the 12z run yesterday with intensity at hour 72, but a touch south.

Mid level ridge is definitely stronger to the northeast compared to 12z yesterday, so I think this bumps west a bit.

[Steve]

I'm very perturbed that the 12Z GFS ensembles were on the TX/LA border... Even further west than the operational.

Mad? NAVGEM looks to hit MSCoast

[ColdMiser123]

Still no GFS though. Mid-level ridge eroding, so this has a path NNE now into the eastern Gulf coast. Steady intensification, with a closed 573 dm height now showing up at 500 hPa at hour 90.

[bella_may]

Still no GFS though. Mid-level ridge eroding, so this has a path NNE now into the eastern Gulf coast. Steady intensification, with a closed 573 dm height now showing up at 500 hPa at hour 90.

Still a decent shift west

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041804
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 32 20171004
175530 1122N 08240W 9765 00288 0093 +228 //// 266018 018 025 006 01
175600 1122N 08238W 9769 00285 0093 +223 //// 275018 019 028 006 01
175630 1123N 08236W 9765 00288 0093 +222 //// 267019 019 026 005 01
175700 1123N 08233W 9764 00290 0093 +222 +222 268020 021 026 007 00
175730 1123N 08231W 9768 00286 0094 +220 +220 267021 021 027 009 00
175800 1124N 08229W 9766 00287 0094 +221 //// 263020 021 025 005 01
175830 1124N 08227W 9765 00288 0094 +217 //// 262021 021 025 006 01
175900 1124N 08225W 9766 00288 0096 +217 //// 263019 020 028 006 01
175930 1124N 08223W 9768 00286 0095 +216 //// 254021 024 027 006 01
180000 1125N 08221W 9765 00290 0097 +215 //// 259024 025 029 005 01
180030 1125N 08218W 9769 00288 0096 +222 //// 258022 023 025 004 05
180100 1124N 08216W 9763 00292 0095 +226 //// 258023 024 027 002 01
180130 1123N 08215W 9767 00288 0095 +229 +229 262021 023 027 002 01
180200 1122N 08213W 9766 00293 //// +230 //// 260021 022 026 003 05
180230 1121N 08211W 9764 00298 0100 +234 +228 226020 021 /// /// 03
180300 1122N 08209W 9764 00298 0100 +233 +226 212019 020 022 002 00
180330 1123N 08207W 9765 00297 0101 +231 +224 211018 018 022 001 00
180400 1124N 08205W 9767 00296 0102 +230 +225 209017 018 023 001 00
180430 1125N 08203W 9765 00298 0102 +230 +222 211017 018 023 002 00
180500 1125N 08201W 9771 00293 0103 +230 +217 218017 018 023 001 03
$$
;

[ColdMiser123]

Still no GFS though. Mid-level ridge eroding, so this has a path NNE now into the eastern Gulf coast. Steady intensification, with a closed 573 dm height now showing up at 500 hPa at hour 90.

Still a decent shift west

Looks west of 0z, SSE of 12z yesterday.

Strongest run to date, with a pressure of 978 at hour 96.

[chaser1]

Good day to everybody! I am so happy that this site exists, it has helped me and my family to be ahead of the curve during hurricane season over the years!! Wanted to ask to all of the well informed and smart members here if we are safe to say that we do not need to worry about this one here in Miami?
Will greatly appreciate your inpits.

I wouldn't worry about it at this time, but keep an eye on it at least until it is north of our latitude to see how things progress.

Sage advice; simply because you just never quite know for sure what Mother Nature has up her sleeve. Now....... in all likelihood, i'd say that the odds of this system making a run at S. Florida are probably between 3%-5%. Actually, I think there's another solution that has not been brought up thus far and may well not be out of the question. I think that there's a very real possibility that this system could simply slowly move on a WNW track right back into Central America..... period. That's not to say that some broad gyre doesn't remain anchored over Central America for the next week with perhaps another area of vorticity to spin off and possibly develop in the W. Caribbean (or Bay of Campecce..??). But if this Depression is actually the entirety of a much broader low or gyre, then I think its worth considering that such a large tropical cyclone might be less likely to be pulled pole-ward without a more significant break in the ridge to its north. Right now it seems that NHC as well as discrepancies between the GFS and EURO, are hinging on a strong Tropical Wave in the E. Gulf and potential formation of a weak low (or T.D.) in the Florida Straits.... eventually the S.E. Gulf will be the catalyst for T.D. 16 to move Northwest or NNW and eventually into the S. Gulf itself. I'm starting to question this because the present upper level shear presently in the E. Gulf just doesn't at all seem conducive for the area of disturbed weather over and east of S. Florida to possibly deepen enough to help break down the stout high pressure ridge. So sure, we'll probably see an attempt for the area of disturbed weather to deepen a tad but more than likely most of the energy will ride up the Florida coast as the surface reflection become essentially decapitated and a weak 1008mb low just progresses westward into the Gulf. If all that were to play out, than I just don't see how a very very shallow 1008 mb low will impact the steering flow enough to cause much of a break for a very large broad and gyre-like tropical cyclone. Based on this thinking, I would think that its not unreasonable for T.D. 16 to more or less move on a more West trajectory. Now, if in fact T.D. 16 were actually quite a small tropical cyclone, then I think it would be easier to make a case for smaller scale synoptic nuances to greater influence the slight tug to the NNW or Northwest, in response to a transient and minor weakness to its north.

[chris_fit]

EURO sticking to it's guns @96hrs - and then some.

S and E of the 00Z run.

Trend...

[fox13weather]

Bet ya the point of landfall will be east of the 00Z run.

[ColdMiser123]

965 at hour 108.

[chris_fit]

EURO sticking to it's guns @96hrs - and then some.

S and E of the 02Z run yesterday.

Trend...

[ColdMiser123]

Bet ya the point of landfall will be east of the 00Z run.

West of 0z.

[bella_may]

About 50 miles farther west but more importantly, much stronger. Which seems to be a scary trend today with all the models

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041814
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 33 20171004
180530 1125N 08159W 9762 00302 0104 +226 +224 215019 019 023 002 01
180600 1125N 08157W 9767 00297 0103 +229 +222 217019 019 024 000 00
180630 1125N 08155W 9768 00297 0104 +229 +222 217018 018 019 001 00
180700 1125N 08153W 9765 00301 0105 +229 +221 213018 018 021 000 00
180730 1126N 08151W 9764 00299 0104 +230 +218 211019 020 020 000 00
180800 1126N 08149W 9765 00299 0105 +229 +218 203019 020 019 000 03
180830 1126N 08147W 9767 00297 0104 +227 +216 202018 019 022 001 00
180900 1126N 08145W 9767 00298 0105 +226 +217 197019 020 021 001 00
180930 1126N 08143W 9767 00298 0105 +227 +216 195019 020 020 001 00
181000 1126N 08141W 9765 00299 0105 +228 +209 197019 020 021 001 00
181030 1126N 08139W 9766 00298 0105 +226 +209 195020 021 022 001 00
181100 1126N 08137W 9766 00298 0106 +225 +215 194022 022 024 000 00
181130 1126N 08135W 9765 00299 0105 +223 +219 195021 022 023 001 01
181200 1126N 08133W 9781 00284 0104 +224 +222 197021 022 023 002 03
181230 1127N 08131W 9769 00290 0100 +222 +221 192021 022 /// /// 05
181300 1128N 08131W 9769 00292 0101 +221 +221 185015 021 020 001 01
181330 1130N 08132W 9785 00276 0100 +225 +220 181014 015 022 001 00
181400 1131N 08134W 9765 00295 0098 +228 +215 181014 016 021 000 00
181430 1132N 08135W 9770 00288 0098 +229 +210 180017 018 024 001 00
181500 1133N 08136W 9773 00285 0098 +218 //// 182018 018 024 002 01
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 041824
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 34 20171004
181530 1134N 08137W 9768 00290 0097 +225 +217 180017 018 025 001 00
181600 1135N 08138W 9772 00285 0096 +226 +222 178016 017 022 002 01
181630 1137N 08140W 9771 00286 0095 +228 +219 180017 018 021 001 00
181700 1138N 08141W 9770 00286 0095 +229 +213 186017 017 022 001 00
181730 1139N 08142W 9770 00286 0095 +226 +218 187016 017 022 002 00
181800 1140N 08143W 9767 00286 0096 +222 +220 189014 016 026 007 03
181830 1141N 08144W 9776 00277 0095 +212 //// 207013 014 030 011 01
181900 1142N 08145W 9765 00287 0093 +218 +218 199014 015 026 014 00
181930 1143N 08146W 9773 00277 0089 +227 +223 200013 014 025 007 00
182000 1145N 08148W 9769 00282 0088 +229 +226 203013 015 019 002 00
182030 1146N 08149W 9769 00281 0087 +229 +227 192013 014 020 001 00
182100 1147N 08150W 9763 00284 0086 +227 //// 186013 015 019 002 01
182130 1148N 08151W 9765 00281 0090 +222 //// 183011 015 024 007 01
182200 1149N 08152W 9768 00280 0087 +222 //// 200013 016 023 008 01
182230 1150N 08153W 9780 00274 //// +218 //// 201018 020 027 003 01
182300 1151N 08154W 9767 00279 0086 +218 //// 180019 020 031 008 01
182330 1153N 08155W 9766 00284 0089 +221 //// 195016 019 031 008 05
182400 1154N 08156W 9769 00279 //// +221 //// 190012 013 023 009 05
182430 1155N 08157W 9773 00274 0083 +229 +228 195011 012 018 001 01
182500 1156N 08159W 9772 00275 0082 +234 +224 198011 013 018 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

About 50 miles farther west but more importantly, much stronger. Which seems to be a scary trend today with all the models

Track looks almost identical to Kate in 1985 when in the Gulf.

[stormlover2013]

this is going to be interesting next few days, JMA high pressue is stronger also....that's going to be the key player, high pressure and how strong the cold front it.

[bqknight]

Looking at visible imagery - it looks to be organizing quite well these past few hours.