ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

At the same time it appears Irma has finally made it to T7.0 on Dvorak, although it's just irrelevant at this point

Wouldn't be surprised if it made a run for a T8.0 at all.

[jlauderdal]

Bailey's General Store has water on Sanibel...It was the only place I was able to find it...We're gassed-up and stocked...Still need a tarp...Lowe's sold out...Bailey's getting emergency shipment tomorrow...

Good old Bailey's coming through in the crunch

[bahamaswx]

914 seriously? Is that from a sonde or extrapolated.

Extrapolated

Wow still insanely impressive. This is the Atlantic's Patricia. Can't believe it is still bombing right now!

I'm gonna guess actual pressure 917. 2mb lower than last pass.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052255
NOAA2 1011A IRMA HDOB 14 20170905
224530 1707N 06008W 7506 01759 9141 +232 +177 133004 007 023 002 00
224600 1708N 06006W 7501 01766 9146 +229 +175 158015 018 026 001 00
224630 1709N 06004W 7530 01743 9166 +214 +175 168030 038 039 002 00
224700 1710N 06002W 7525 01774 9197 +202 +169 178061 075 059 008 00
224730 1711N 06000W 7530 01810 9251 +187 +172 177103 117 093 003 03
224800 1713N 05958W 7515 01905 9332 +175 //// 172139 147 141 011 01
224830 1714N 05956W 7512 02001 9438 +159 //// 164149 156 143 022 05
224900 1715N 05955W 7496 02101 9537 +149 //// 157148 152 130 008 01
224930 1716N 05953W 7530 02123 9600 +158 +142 153135 139 117 008 00
225000 1717N 05951W 7518 02184 9655 +159 +128 155124 128 113 006 00
225030 1718N 05950W 7528 02215 9698 +153 //// 160123 128 104 008 01
225100 1719N 05948W 7498 02284 9748 +141 //// 157128 130 098 019 01
225130 1721N 05946W 7493 02321 9785 +136 //// 151120 121 091 031 01
225200 1722N 05945W 7502 02333 9818 +135 //// 150116 118 085 029 01
225230 1723N 05943W 7499 02360 9841 +133 //// 148114 117 080 023 01
225300 1724N 05941W 7507 02373 9868 +132 //// 146111 112 075 014 01
225330 1725N 05940W 7515 02378 9889 +130 //// 146110 110 070 011 01
225400 1726N 05938W 7517 02389 9902 +132 //// 145105 106 067 012 01
225430 1727N 05937W 7524 02398 9918 +133 +129 144100 102 065 013 03
225500 1728N 05935W 7513 02421 9925 +136 +131 143099 101 058 012 00

[znel52]

At the same time it appears Irma has finally made it to T7.0 on Dvorak, although it's just irrelevant at this point

Wouldn't be surprised if it made a run for a T8.0 at all.

If this storm can pull off CDG in the Atlantic it will be the most impressive storm I have ever seen in my life as far as I'm concerned.

[Michele B]

Most of water, propane tanks and gas are all out for now in Broward County.
Batteries out too, however new shipments to come every hour for water, according to Publix employees.

Huge line for gas stations stretch more than half a mile in some locations.

I've been waiting for propane for almost 2 hours now at an Exxon off of SR-84. They say it's coming.... but if it doesn't, they will have 125 ticked-off people to deal with.

EDIT: The propane gets here literally as I type this post.

Sarasota is in a similar situation. It's nuts here.

Inland from Sarasota, different county, propane gone here, too.

[znel52]

At the same time it appears Irma has finally made it to T7.0 on Dvorak, although it's just irrelevant at this point

Wouldn't be surprised if it made a run for a T8.0 at all.

If this storm can pull off a CDG ring in the Atlantic it will be the most impressive storm I have ever seen in my life as far as I'm concerned.

[Extratropical94]

NE quad:
156 kt FL
141 kt SFMR unflagged

Irma hasn't strengthened any further which is a bit of good news.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Am I missing something, but it looks to me like the final pin ton the NHC forecast hasn't moved for the past three updates...5 am this morning, 11 am and 5 pm all look like they are in the same place.

Is this the NHC hedging and buying time or is he storm forecast slowing down that much with each forecast?

They could be waiting for Euro's track. The cone did go north and west somewhat outside W FL. I don't know if it was updated at 2 or 5 though?

[znel52]

Wouldn't be surprised if it made a run for a T8.0 at all.

If this storm can pull off a CDG ring in the Atlantic it will be the most impressive storm I have ever seen in my life as far as I'm concerned.

[Aric Dunn]

well luckily it seems it has weakened a little bit from this ERC hopefully even more for the islands sake..

seems like this erc is progressing faster that I thought it would..

[eastcoastFL]

Am I missing something, but it looks to me like the final pin ton the NHC forecast hasn't moved for the past three updates...5 am this morning, 11 am and 5 pm all look like they are in the same place.

Is this the NHC hedging and buying time or is he storm forecast slowing down that much with each forecast?

I think they are a little bit. Once they place the dot over Miami...well. South Florida becomes like storm2k

Lol. That's exactly what i was thinking. It barely moved since last night and 5pm was nudged a hair SW of 2pm. They're gonna have to pull the trigger at some point. It's kinda what I'm waiting for to hit the road.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052257
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 09 20170905
224830 1808N 06121W 6967 03140 0027 +100 +057 065062 063 039 001 00
224900 1807N 06119W 6967 03140 0020 +105 +058 064062 063 042 002 00
224930 1806N 06118W 6970 03136 0018 +106 +055 063065 068 045 001 00
225000 1805N 06117W 6964 03141 0013 +109 +053 064064 067 045 003 00
225030 1804N 06116W 6967 03136 0008 +110 +052 062062 063 045 002 00
225100 1803N 06114W 6967 03132 0007 +110 +051 060062 064 045 002 00
225130 1802N 06113W 6967 03129 0004 +110 +053 058062 064 045 002 00
225200 1801N 06112W 6966 03128 0000 +112 +054 059064 065 046 001 00
225230 1800N 06110W 6967 03127 9994 +113 +057 058064 064 048 001 00
225300 1759N 06109W 6967 03122 9992 +113 +059 060065 066 047 002 00
225330 1758N 06108W 6966 03121 9993 +111 +059 062069 070 047 002 00
225400 1757N 06107W 6969 03115 9991 +109 +065 062068 070 046 003 00
225430 1756N 06106W 6967 03115 9992 +106 +068 061067 068 044 002 00
225500 1755N 06104W 6967 03113 9991 +104 +073 061068 068 045 002 00
225530 1754N 06103W 6969 03110 9986 +105 +067 060067 067 044 002 00
225600 1753N 06102W 6967 03105 9983 +109 +065 056066 066 047 002 03
225630 1753N 06101W 6969 03106 9979 +110 +064 055067 067 048 001 00
225700 1752N 06059W 6966 03107 9976 +110 +065 054069 069 050 001 00
225730 1751N 06058W 6967 03103 9974 +109 +064 054069 069 050 001 00
225800 1750N 06057W 6967 03100 9970 +110 +068 054069 069 051 002 00
$$
;

[Hammy]

What's the likelihood at this point of Irma missing Florida to the east?

[BZSTORM]

Am I missing something, but it looks to me like the final pin ton the NHC forecast hasn't moved for the past three updates...5 am this morning, 11 am and 5 pm all look like they are in the same place.

Is this the NHC hedging and buying time or is he storm forecast slowing down that much with each forecast?

I think they are a little bit. Once they place the dot over Miami...well. South Florida becomes like storm2k

I had come to same conclusion I think they are waiting for the atmosphere sampling data to be entered into models but not knowing how long they take to run, I'm guessing it wont be till the 00z or even 06z runs ??
but when you consider the storm is wider than Florida its a mute point which side Irma runs up, they will get TS winds pretty much everywhere. I have friends in Keys, Homestead, Miami North and Palm Bay all are equally freaked out at this time and yes all are ready to evacuate if needed.

[BYG Jacob]

What's the likelihood at this point of Irma missing Florida to the east?

Very low at this point.

[KBBOCA]

This tweet is 11 hours old, but I don't think I've seen it posted

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/905041931931176960




On a related note, because of this surge, I read on a BVI news site that the authorities were urging evacuation of Anegada residents to Virgin Gorda.

[Javlin]

"CDG ring in the Atlantic" What is a CDG ring ?nothing pops up on google.

[RL3AO]

What's the likelihood at this point of Irma missing Florida to the east?

Not an easy estimate to make. If you're talking about avoiding major hurricane impacts, I'd put the number around 25%. I haven't looked that closely at the ensembles today though.

[supercane4867]

Clearly it's a sign of EWRC in progress as the wind decreases while pressure still dropping and wind field size starts to increase.

The secondary peak can make a run to sub 900mb with the larger size.