ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[weathaguyry]

Thank you!!!

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 191848
AF300 0102A INVEST HDOB 29 20170619
183800 0835N 05812W 9774 00290 0104 +224 +206 170017 018 019 005 03
183830 0836N 05811W 9762 00299 0104 +223 +207 166018 019 020 004 03
183900 0838N 05811W 9773 00291 0104 +215 +212 168018 019 024 005 00
183930 0839N 05811W 9770 00292 0103 +215 +214 165019 019 024 004 00
184000 0841N 05811W 9772 00290 0102 +214 +214 164019 020 022 005 00
184030 0843N 05811W 9769 00291 0101 +215 +210 162020 020 020 005 00
184100 0844N 05810W 9770 00291 0101 +216 //// 160017 020 019 004 01
184130 0846N 05810W 9770 00288 //// +216 //// 156018 019 019 003 01
184200 0848N 05810W 9772 00286 //// +213 //// 152019 019 018 003 05
184230 0849N 05811W 9770 00286 //// +212 //// 152016 018 017 004 01
184300 0849N 05813W 9776 00285 //// +215 //// 154015 015 021 001 01
184330 0848N 05814W 9769 00291 0100 +217 +216 154016 017 017 002 05
184400 0848N 05816W 9769 00291 //// +215 //// 143015 017 021 001 01
184430 0848N 05817W 9772 00290 0101 +215 +213 127013 014 020 001 01
184500 0848N 05819W 9770 00291 //// +215 //// 127012 013 021 001 01
184530 0848N 05821W 9770 00290 0099 +219 +217 128012 014 020 002 00
184600 0848N 05822W 9770 00288 0098 +220 +216 131012 012 020 002 00
184630 0848N 05824W 9772 00287 0098 +216 +215 124011 012 021 001 05
184700 0848N 05826W 9770 00290 0100 +215 +215 121012 012 020 001 01
184730 0848N 05827W 9768 00292 //// +215 //// 119013 013 020 002 01
$$
;

[RL3AO]

I'm not sure what they'll do. Between the banding and the incredibly weak west wind they found, I'm leaning towards an upgrade. On the other hand, the warnings have been issued so maybe they can wait a bit.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 191858
AF300 0102A INVEST HDOB 30 20170619
184800 0848N 05829W 9767 00291 0099 +218 +216 123014 014 022 003 01
184830 0848N 05831W 9774 00284 0098 +220 +215 124014 014 020 001 00
184900 0848N 05832W 9772 00286 0097 +220 +215 127011 013 019 001 00
184930 0848N 05834W 9770 00286 0096 +219 +214 115010 010 020 001 00
185000 0848N 05836W 9772 00284 //// +215 //// 112010 011 019 002 01
185030 0848N 05837W 9770 00288 //// +215 //// 109010 011 019 001 01
185100 0848N 05839W 9771 00285 0095 +218 +211 113010 010 021 001 03
185130 0848N 05841W 9773 00282 0094 +220 +210 110010 011 020 001 00
185200 0848N 05842W 9769 00286 0094 +221 +209 114014 015 019 002 00
185230 0848N 05844W 9771 00285 0095 +225 +207 117013 015 020 002 00
185300 0848N 05846W 9770 00286 0095 +223 +212 122011 011 017 001 00
185330 0848N 05847W 9772 00284 0095 +225 +214 126012 012 016 002 00
185400 0848N 05849W 9770 00286 0096 +223 +219 121011 012 019 001 00
185430 0848N 05851W 9770 00285 0094 +223 +220 121011 012 019 001 05
185500 0848N 05852W 9770 00286 //// +218 //// 123012 012 022 001 05
185530 0848N 05854W 9773 00285 //// +216 //// 120010 012 022 001 05
185600 0848N 05856W 9771 00290 0098 +225 +221 115008 008 017 000 00
185630 0848N 05857W 9771 00284 0093 +225 +219 108009 010 017 000 00
185700 0848N 05859W 9770 00285 0093 +223 +215 108009 010 016 001 03
185730 0848N 05901W 9770 00284 0093 +220 +215 113010 010 016 000 00
$$
;

[msbee]

I'm not sure what they'll do. Between the banding and the incredibly weak west wind they found, I'm leaning towards an upgrade. On the other hand, the warnings have been issued so maybe they can wait a bit.

either way, the islands are getting a good blow.

[Yellow Evan]

AL, 02, 2017061918, , BEST, 0, 87N, 582W, 35, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 70, 1011, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,

[MississippiWx]

Will be hard to believe if this doesn't get upgraded soon. Satellite imagery improves by the frame. The guts of the system (the winds) will improve soon imo.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 191908
AF300 0102A INVEST HDOB 31 20170619
185800 0848N 05902W 9772 00286 0095 +220 +212 118011 011 016 002 03
185830 0848N 05904W 9770 00285 0093 +220 +213 126011 011 017 001 03
185900 0848N 05906W 9770 00282 0092 +221 +211 130009 011 015 001 00
185930 0848N 05907W 9770 00282 0091 +223 +205 128008 009 016 001 03
190000 0848N 05909W 9771 00281 0091 +220 +214 142008 009 016 000 01
190030 0848N 05910W 9771 00279 0087 +222 +214 158006 008 018 000 01
190100 0848N 05912W 9769 00279 0086 +226 +210 146006 007 018 000 00
190130 0848N 05914W 9770 00280 0090 +224 +214 146007 007 017 002 03
190200 0848N 05915W 9772 00280 0091 +221 +217 143005 007 018 001 01
190230 0848N 05917W 9772 00281 0090 +222 +205 136005 005 017 001 03
190300 0848N 05919W 9756 00294 0091 +221 +216 129003 005 020 002 01
190330 0848N 05920W 9775 00281 //// +221 //// 075003 003 018 002 01
190400 0848N 05922W 9770 00286 //// +220 //// 029001 003 022 000 01
190430 0848N 05924W 9771 00284 0094 +220 //// 328001 002 020 000 01
190500 0848N 05926W 9770 00285 //// +220 //// 272001 002 020 000 01
190530 0848N 05928W 9770 00285 //// +220 //// 278002 003 022 001 01
190600 0848N 05929W 9772 00285 //// +220 //// 290002 003 022 001 01
190630 0848N 05931W 9769 00287 //// +220 //// 290001 002 023 001 01
190700 0848N 05933W 9772 00286 0098 +218 //// 276002 003 026 000 01
190730 0848N 05935W 9770 00287 0098 +218 //// 281004 005 026 001 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

they should go a little farther north..

[RL3AO]

Hey they found a series of 2 to 4 kt west winds. That might do it lol.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey they found a series of 2 to 4 kt west winds. That might do it lol.

Is there a minimum wind speed requirement for W winds to officially close off tropical systems?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[MississippiWx]

Hey they found a series of 2 to 4 kt west winds. That might do it lol.

So hard to get significant west winds when the system is moving 20kts+. Lol. If it slows down any or if the current organization trend continues, it will be able to tighten up the west winds (southern semicircle).

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 191918
AF300 0102A INVEST HDOB 32 20170619
190800 0848N 05937W 9771 00285 0096 +219 //// 295006 006 027 004 01
190830 0848N 05938W 9770 00285 0096 +221 //// 295007 007 027 008 01
190900 0848N 05940W 9772 00282 0092 +222 +222 304008 009 028 009 00
190930 0848N 05940W 9772 00282 0094 +222 //// 312008 009 029 005 01
191000 0848N 05944W 9771 00284 0093 +223 //// 321008 009 031 003 01
191030 0848N 05945W 9769 00285 0093 +222 //// 326009 010 030 003 01
191100 0848N 05947W 9770 00282 0094 +223 //// 322010 010 027 005 01
191130 0848N 05949W 9776 00281 0096 +222 //// 327010 010 028 003 01
191200 0848N 05951W 9770 00286 0096 +223 //// 328010 011 026 003 01
191230 0848N 05953W 9772 00286 //// +220 //// 334010 011 025 001 05
191300 0848N 05955W 9772 00287 0097 +222 +221 339011 011 022 002 01
191330 0848N 05957W 9769 00287 0096 +225 +217 348012 012 022 000 00
191400 0848N 05958W 9770 00286 0096 +221 +217 348012 013 021 002 01
191430 0848N 06000W 9768 00287 0096 +220 +218 358012 013 020 001 05
191500 0848N 06002W 9770 00285 //// +220 //// 005013 014 021 000 01
191530 0848N 06004W 9769 00288 //// +220 //// 016013 015 022 000 05
191600 0848N 06006W 9770 00288 //// +221 //// 015012 013 023 000 05
191630 0848N 06008W 9772 00288 0098 +225 +217 018011 012 024 000 00
191700 0848N 06010W 9774 00286 0099 +221 +217 027011 011 023 002 03
191730 0850N 06011W 9758 00299 0098 +224 +218 037007 010 023 001 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

Hey they found a series of 2 to 4 kt west winds. That might do it lol.

Is there a minimum wind speed requirement for W winds to officially close off tropical systems?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Not a written down criteria. They've generally upgraded systems with weak west winds like this when embedded within strong easterly flow. Combine the west winds with a very impressive satellite picture and I think they'll make it Bret.

[Aric Dunn]

That recent pass is pretty decent ... might upgrade..

[Kazmit]

It has "that look" now with the comma shape and the banding. I'll be surprised if they don't upgrade at 6pm.

[Hammy]

I will say this is turning out to be terrible policy from a scientific standpoint--we're going to have storms that are actual tropical cyclones end up not going in the records now, rather than just following prior policy and declaring them sooner, and this is going to be the first. Just adds yet another inconsistency to the standards.

[Aric Dunn]

this pass should be interesting.. farther north finally and wind field looks ok so far.. pressure is lower however than south..

[RL3AO]

I will say this is turning out to be terrible policy from a scientific standpoint--we're going to have storms that are actual tropical cyclones end up not going in the records now, rather than just following prior policy and declaring them sooner, and this is going to be the first.

No it's not. Warnings have been issued in a timely manner for locations that will be impacted by TS conditions tomorrow. In the only system, there would currently be no warnings until now at the earliest. I know you like to play the game where everything is wrong, but you are wrong about this.

[WeatherEmperor]

I will say this is turning out to be terrible policy from a scientific standpoint--we're going to have storms that are actual tropical cyclones end up not going in the records now, rather than just following prior policy and declaring them sooner, and this is going to be the first. Just adds yet another inconsistency to the standards.

The plane is still investigating. Lets give them a little more time to get the classification to TS.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk