ATL: IRMA - Models

[SFLcane]

Ah there ya go 00z GFS was just beginning with it's trend out to sea now 06z GFS is way north rest of models should follow. CMC also big shift north over night. Expect euro will come around later today. Folks this is in an highly unlikely location to impact the US.

[SFLcane]

Won't even make it past 70w recurving already near Bermuda.

[pavelbure224]

Living in South Florida I have seen my fair share of storms. I think we should all be vigilant because it's only Wednesday. We are a least a week and a half away from it. We all know how these models change. I would think by this time next week we would have a better idea on what the future holds.

[jlauderdal]

Won't even make it past 70w recurving already near Bermuda.

dont be suckered into each model run of the gfs, seen this many times, next one could be into barbados

[SFLcane]

Won't even make it past 70w recurving already near Bermuda.

dont be suckered into each model run of the gfs, seen this many times, next one could be into barbados

oh iam not trust me it could easily drop development. just stating its highly unlikely at its currently latitude being named it manages to make it that further west. Sooner rather then later it will feel a tug from a trof.

[GeneratorPower]

This storm may surprise you. It's bigger than many and getting strong. It could feel the effects of the ridge to the north faster and begin the projected SW motion sooner. Might have a shot at losing lattitude and getting in a better position.

[RL3AO]

Won't even make it past 70w recurving already near Bermuda.

dont be suckered into each model run of the gfs, seen this many times, next one could be into barbados

oh iam not trust me it could easily drop development. just stating its highly unlikely at its currently latitude being named it manages to make it that further west. Sooner rather then later will feel a tug from a trof.

I don't get this logic. Both models have it losing 5 degrees of latitude in the coming days. You wouldn't say the same thing about a storm at 15N 55W where the Euro has it in 5 days.

[USTropics]

At that range, I would follow the ensemble trends over an operational run of a model. The 00z ECMWF ensembles seem to suggest that interests in the Caribbean are more at threat than Bermuda:

[WAcyclone]

Bermuda is likely under the pump and maybe a major C 3/4.

Based on the 00z EPS, the threat appears to be greater for the Yucatan peninsula (about 12 % of the ensembles) than for Bermuda (I found no direct landfall and almost all members are well west of the island). All tracks between Central America and east of Bermuda are still possible

[SFLcane]

hmmm tha'ts some signal near Florida from the GEFS ensembles..

[USTropics]

Also does anyone have the website that shows the individual member runs for the ECMWF ensembles? Someone posted it a week or two ago but lost the link.

[Nimbus]

Took 24 pages before the models started recurving this away from the ConUS.
I remember the years when the models started out all tracking way too far north near the Cape Verde islands. Guess this year its strong ridging with a far west TUTT probability.

[WAcyclone]

Also does anyone have the website that shows the individual member runs for the ECMWF ensembles? Someone posted it a week or two ago but lost the link.

This is the only one I know of where you can check all 51 ensemble members: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sea-level-pressure/20170908-1800z.html

[RL3AO]

0z EPS

[SFLcane]

Also does anyone have the website that shows the individual member runs for the ECMWF ensembles? Someone posted it a week or two ago but lost the link.

Quite the concentration also near Florida..

[canefan]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://weather.us/model-charts/can/usa ... 0000z.html
GFS EC CMC.

[hurricaneCW]

Won't even make it past 70w recurving already near Bermuda.

That's quite an assumption for a 10+ day forecast. I'm sure no one expected Harvey to be a Cat 4 and dump over 50" several days before landfall.

I'll give you this, based on it's current latitude, the time of year, and its quick development then it probably has a 75% chance of recurving before 70W but not all storms are alike.

[perk]

Won't even make it past 70w recurving already near Bermuda.

The GFS and the Euro buried Harvey in Mexico and many on this forum agreed.We see how that turned out.

[jlauderdal]

Won't even make it past 70w recurving already near Bermuda.

That's quite an assumption for a 10+ day forecast. I'm sure no one expected Harvey to be a Cat 4 and dump over 50" several days before landfall.

I'll give you this, based on it's current latitude, the time of year, and its quick development then it probably has a 75% chance of recurving before 70W but not all storms are alike.

soflcane has been optimistic all morning about a recurve, lets see what happens