ATL: JOSE - Models

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'CaneFreak
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#461 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:09 pm

950 MB off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. WOW.

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Alyono wrote:0Z GFS much stronger and west
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#462 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:23 pm

uk shifts east. Initialized far weaker than the previous runs

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2017 0 25.3N 65.8W 995 41
1200UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 66.6W 997 41
0000UTC 15.09.2017 24 25.2N 67.9W 995 49
1200UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.9N 70.1W 993 51
0000UTC 16.09.2017 48 26.7N 71.7W 985 61
1200UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.7N 72.9W 973 70
0000UTC 17.09.2017 72 28.6N 73.6W 961 73
1200UTC 17.09.2017 84 29.7N 73.8W 950 77
0000UTC 18.09.2017 96 31.2N 73.6W 936 83
1200UTC 18.09.2017 108 32.6N 73.5W 940 76
0000UTC 19.09.2017 120 34.2N 73.1W 946 76
1200UTC 19.09.2017 132 36.1N 72.4W 942 75
0000UTC 20.09.2017 144 38.1N 71.3W 940 75
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#463 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:32 pm

Yep. Initialized 10 MB too weak with winds that were 30 knots too weak. That is interesting that it still drops the pressure as low as the GFS even though it initialized too weak. Wow. It definitely sees the favorable environment ahead as does the GFS now. That's good. Maybe this will get the NHC's attention.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#464 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:32 pm

Alyono wrote:uk shifts east. Initialized far weaker than the previous runs

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2017 0 25.3N 65.8W 995 41
1200UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 66.6W 997 41
0000UTC 15.09.2017 24 25.2N 67.9W 995 49
1200UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.9N 70.1W 993 51
0000UTC 16.09.2017 48 26.7N 71.7W 985 61
1200UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.7N 72.9W 973 70
0000UTC 17.09.2017 72 28.6N 73.6W 961 73
1200UTC 17.09.2017 84 29.7N 73.8W 950 77
0000UTC 18.09.2017 96 31.2N 73.6W 936 83
1200UTC 18.09.2017 108 32.6N 73.5W 940 76
0000UTC 19.09.2017 120 34.2N 73.1W 946 76
1200UTC 19.09.2017 132 36.1N 72.4W 942 75
0000UTC 20.09.2017 144 38.1N 71.3W 940 75



Initialization definitely seems suspect since this is probably around 980 to 985 right now. The GFS and CMC both came in a bit slower and much further west.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#465 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:33 pm

Happy Pelican wrote:Wasn't King Euro the first to sniff out Sandy's path and all the other models pointed fingers and laughed at the king, thinking he was nuts. So yeah.


It was, when the rest of the guidance was saying it'd go out to sea. But still, the Euro can be wrong too and it could just be a weird run. Curious to see the run tonight.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#466 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:35 pm

Lowest pressure on this run: 942 mb at 138 hours. WOW.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#467 Postby Bizzles » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:53 pm

Happy Pelican wrote:Wasn't King Euro the first to sniff out Sandy's path and all the other models pointed fingers and laughed at the king, thinking he was nuts. So yeah.

IIRC it was actually the CMC that first picked up on the left "hook". But yes the Euro was always the western trend for that storm.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#468 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:56 pm

that is very bizzare the UKMET would initialize so weak..?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#469 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:59 am

0z Euro at 144 hours. Then goes Northeast near Maine and a possible landfall in Canada.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#470 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:18 am

Image
Looking more a ots system as the outliers with the land interaction are dropping away.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#471 Postby Bizzles » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:34 am

Another shift west for the 06Z GFS
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#472 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:41 am

These shifts West aren't making me feel very comfortable. It wouldn't take that far of a shift to affect land
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#473 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:06 am

new GFS keeps Jose for 16 days
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#474 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:08 am

Also... 06Z GFS makes Jose drift south (WHAT?! :eek: ) once near Newfoundland. How is that even possible?! If it manages to get to, well Jose... pack out to make yourself a very long-lived storm.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#475 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:38 am

SuperMarioBros99thx wrote:Also... 06Z GFS makes Jose drift south (WHAT?! :eek: ) once near Newfoundland. How is that even possible?! If it manages to get to, well Jose... pack out to make yourself a very long-lived storm.


I saw that, all the way to down by 31N (Georiga lat) that would be crazy long lived.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#476 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:49 am

12Z Euro also way west, but does not make landfall in the US.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#477 Postby OntarioEggplant » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:55 am

The 06Z GFS is crazy... If that were to happen, José would probably break the longevity record set by Hurricane Ginger
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#478 Postby xironman » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:01 am

OntarioEggplant wrote:The 06Z GFS is crazy... If that were to happen, José would probably break the longevity record set by Hurricane Ginger


Party like its 1899

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_ ... _hurricane
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#479 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:04 am

GCANE wrote:12Z GFS
108 hrs out
500mb Heights

Going to be watching next few runs if the blue circled area closes off.

Image


Yup, looks like it closed off.
Increasing chances for a CONUS landfall.
Now, watching if it builds in next runs.


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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#480 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:11 am

Can't ignore the west trend now. NHC will need to jump west just to stay near the eastern edge of the cone.
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