ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Looks like Barbuda will incur the wrath of Irma in a few hours. Small island with about 1600+ souls living on it. Highest elevation is 125 feet. Hope they are hunkered down in a concrete steel reinforced buildings. Winds with gusts could be over 200mph. Not much will be left if the eyewall passes overhead. Praying for them....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

This north south pass shold be high as well.

[Nimbus]

Do we have wind field data for Puerto Rico?
How far south do the Category 2 winds reach from the eye center/forecast position.

[ozonepete]

What's the likelihood at this point of Irma missing Florida to the east?

You have hope. 18Z GFS has shifted east and forecasts eye of Irma to stay appreciably east of Florida east coast compared to previous runs. Will be interesting to see if this trend holds for the 00Z runs of GFS and Euro.

[supercane4867]

That is the strongest drop I can remember since Wilma. Wilma had one that was about the same. I will find it.

Here is the drop for Rita of similar wind speeds, that dropsonde stopped reporting earlier before reaching surface though



**This not Irma**

[Cyclenall]

This will be another historic hurricane season no doubt. Between Harvey, now Irma, and possibly any effects from the soon to be intense Jose, this season is a banger.

I didn't have many words when I woke up to the 8 am special advisory, but 4 words do come to mind boldly: THE ATLANTIC IS BACK.

For the recon data, why is none of it being posted in the recon data thread? Its only very historic precious data...

Something I don't read at all is how the SHIPS guidance was 100% useless for this tropical cyclone...what's going on? Not even showing RI before this thing pulled a Katrina. Said it would peak at 113 knots .

[KBBOCA]

Looks like Barbuda will incur the wrath of Irma in a few hours. Small island with about 1600+ souls living on it. Highest elevation is 125 feet. Hope they are hunkered down in a concrete steel reinforced buildings. Winds with gusts could be over 200mph. Not much will be left if the eyewall passes overhead. Praying for them....MGC

Ditto in terms of hopes that they have safe shelters, and my prayers.

Just used the Storm Carib my satellite feature to get a zoomed in look at the current satellite view for Guadeloupe, Antigua & Barbuda. Terrifying.

[utweather]

We're about to officially have the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic folks.

I told one of my co-workers today she is giving a run for it but all I remember is Camille since I lived through it in Biloxi and hearing reports of 200MPH gust that night but this is crazy.

My mother when she was a child with my grandmother lived through Camille in Louisiana. The house and people next door did not. People with little money should get out of the way and don't worry about money. (If you have to: think the gov't will always print more[i've see this with finances] and yolo-you only live once[thats what the kids say these days]) Help yourself and neighbors get out of the winds way now.

[romeoblade]

I thought this was interesting.

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905092034863693825

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 23:54Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 23:18:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°10'N 60°17'W (17.1667N 60.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 103 statute miles (166 km) to the E (88°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,368m (7,769ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 156kts (~ 179.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNW (340°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56° at 161kts (From between the NE and ENE at ~ 185.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NNW (338°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 917mb (27.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 161kts (~ 185.3mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NNW (338°) from the flight level center at 23:13:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 9kts (From the NE at 10mph)

[NDG]

Zoomed in radar loop.

[Michele B]

I thought this was interesting.

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905092034863693825

.

I heard this on another forum. I thought it was a joke.

This cannot be for real. This storm is beyond my ability to comprehend or respond....

[KBBOCA]

Latest Guadeloupe radar:



Live look:
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

[jasons2k]

Just an observation, the GOES-16 imagery is technically "non-operational," but they seem to be using it in an official capacity.

[Exalt]

Zoomed in radar loop.

It looks like instead of an EWRC it's just merging with the larger eyewall. This eye doesn't look like it's collapsing any time soon.

[Ivanhater]

She is not lifting up.

[romeoblade]

Just an observation, the GOES-16 imagery is technically "non-operational," but they seem to be using it in an official capacity.

Storm like this, I reckon you use every tool available to you.

[RL3AO]

Just an observation, the GOES-16 imagery is technically "non-operational," but they seem to be using it in an official capacity.

But as long as they include the phrase "non-operational" and a winking emoji, it's all good.

[gatorcane]

Whoa