ATL: IRMA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

We know why the models are turning sharp north. Its a ramdom mid to upper low that forms over the mississippi valley that lifts it north.. they are probably not
going to say nothing.. but like most its extremely unlikely

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Let's just hope the consistent W shifts end or that hard right can be a knockout punch for FL

Yea, little doubt in my mind at least that Irma will make a NW-NNW turn at some point. My fear is how far west Irma goes before making that turn; that could be a serious problem for Florida.

[Ken711]

We know why the models are turning sharp north. Its a ramdom mid to upper low that forms over the mississippi valley that lifts it north.. they are probably not
going to say nothing.. but like most its extremely unlikely

Do you see it moving WNW instead?

[psyclone]

Based on some of the models trending towards the coast or up the spine of the state,what conditions would or could the west coast of Florida Such as Sarasota,St.Petersburg, Tampa exspect?

not much...one of the biggest mistake meteorologists make is overstating impacts on west side of storm. We had nothing of note from Matthew.....it's bad if you are in eyewall...but shore of that, west side of a hurricane is the place to be..

Great point. we got absolutely nothing from Matthew and I distinctly remember FLoyd from 1999 being just a breezy day with 20mph winds from the northeast and quick passing showers. You would have had no idea what was going on just to the east. You typically don't need to be far west of the center to get into decent weather, especially with the degrading impact of land. If a hurricane is skirting the east coast...the farther west you are on the peninsula the better off you are.

[Steve]

Still a bit early with only 84 hours (Thursday 7am CDT), but NAM12km is running now. If you run it, follow the upper patterns. Trough lifts, behind it swings back through, then...

[Dean4Storms]

Seeing that those models above that make an abrupt turn to the North missing FL to the east occurs around 77W for a turn like that to occur and hit the SE Coast of Florida then Irma would have to reach 80W a full 3 degrees West Longitude more. Either that has to occur or Irma would have to make a more gradual turn from 77 to 78W. To reach 80W you will need Irma to speed up quicker than most of those models are projecting and in the other scenario the trough being weaker than forecast when it reaches 77W so that it induces a more gradual turn.

[Blinhart]

Let's just hope the consistent W shifts end or that hard right can be a knockout punch for FL

Yea, little doubt in my mind at least that Irma will make a NW-NNW turn at some point. My fear is how far west Irma goes before making that turn; that could be a serious problem for Florida.

Not only Florida, there is a growing chance for the northern Gulf Coast also, so it is gonna be everyone watching to see how far South she goes before she starts her WNW movement, and then how far West she goes before she goes NW.

[jlauderdal]

Another look at the hard right turn before reaching SE Florida. Have to say, if it ends up doing something like that, talk about a nail biter and yet another lucky escape for a South Florida (and yet another not so lucky hit on the Bahamas). You can't rule it out but seems a bit suspicious especially looking at the ensembles:

. Yep. Very odd. Another view of the brick wall run, lol.

Wonder what NHC is going to say with these models basically stopping in 5 days? I think that is pretty much what these models are saying.

I would expect them to do more of the same and nudge west and south...look at the motion tonight as pointed out by aric...we keep seeing this motion..one hard right turn in the models isnt causing nhc to react

[Blinhart]

. Yep. Very odd. Another view of the brick wall run, lol.

Wonder what NHC is going to say with these models basically stopping in 5 days? I think that is pretty much what these models are saying.

I would expect them to do more of the same and nudge west and south...look at the motion tonight as pointed out by aric...we keep seeing this motion..one hard right turn in the models isnt causing nhc to react

I wasn't saying they would move the cone or anything, just wondering what they would say in the discussion because they discuss the models.

[MetroMike]

. Yep. Very odd. Another view of the brick wall run, lol.

Wonder what NHC is going to say with these models basically stopping in 5 days? I think that is pretty much what these models are saying.

I would expect them to do more of the same and nudge west and south...look at the motion tonight as pointed out by aric...we keep seeing this motion..one hard right turn in the models isnt causing nhc to react

Looks as though several models slow it down as its heading to in the direction of FL. You can see some not yet curving before the
sharp turn ahead.

[AutoPenalti]

Wonder what NHC is going to say with these models basically stopping in 5 days? I think that is pretty much what these models are saying.

I would expect them to do more of the same and nudge west and south...look at the motion tonight as pointed out by aric...we keep seeing this motion..one hard right turn in the models isnt causing nhc to react

Looks as though several models slow it down as its heading to in the direction of FL. You can see some not yet curving before the
sharp turn ahead.

I have a feeling that the turns happens farther inland.

[Meteorcane]

Looks like they are trying to get a handle on the developing trough by requesting extra RAOB launches at midwestern/great-lakes offices. Also looks like a few of the plane measurements will make it into the 00z suite.

http://w1.weather.gov/data/WNO/ADMNFD

[invest man]

We know why the models are turning sharp north. Its a ramdom mid to upper low that forms over the mississippi valley that lifts it north.. they are probably not
going to say nothing.. but like most its extremely unlikely

So then basically you're buying into the Euro or Gfs solutions? Or should we just throw out this model cycle until we get some kind of trend since this primarily started?

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like they are trying to get a handle on the developing trough by requesting extra RAOB launches at midwestern/great-lakes offices. Also looks like a few of the plane measurements will make it into the 00z suite.

http://w1.weather.gov/data/WNO/ADMNFD

Is it the trough that is lifting or the one that proceeds it?

[Steve]

We know why the models are turning sharp north. Its a ramdom mid to upper low that forms over the mississippi valley that lifts it north.. they are probably not
going to say nothing.. but like most its extremely unlikely

So then basically you're buying into the Euro or Gfs solutions? Or should we just throw out this model cycle until we get some kind of trend since this primarily started?

Levi says the low drops down from Montana while the Canadian ridge builds across to the N and NE. It's not on the map yet but may pop up toward the end of the NAM runs at 500mb

[adam0983]

What is making the models keep trending west. Looking more likely it will hit somewhere in the us. What can make it miss the us. All models see in good agreement for Bahamas.

[Ken711]

We know why the models are turning sharp north. Its a ramdom mid to upper low that forms over the mississippi valley that lifts it north.. they are probably not
going to say nothing.. but like most its extremely unlikely

So then basically you're buying into the Euro or Gfs solutions? Or should we just throw out this model cycle until we get some kind of trend since this primarily started?

Levi says the low drops down from Montana while the Canadian ridge builds across to the N and NE. It's not on the map yet but may pop up toward the end of the NAM runs at 500mb

Levi said depending on its strength and timing of course, it could also provide a possible OTS steering option.

[crimi481]

Models depict strong ridge. May send it through the keys or everglades ala Katrina

Not a pro

[gatorcane]

We know why the models are turning sharp north. Its a ramdom mid to upper low that forms over the mississippi valley that lifts it north.. they are probably not
going to say nothing.. but like most its extremely unlikely

Actually it doesn't look random. Levi pointed this out in his video on tropicaltidbits.com. Looks like all global models show some kind of trough or piece of energy that moves SE from the Montana area on the west side of the big trough over the Eastern CONUS. That could cause the cyclone to make a hard turn nearing Florida. No doubt cyclones can turn on a dime no matter how strong. We saw this with Matthew in the Caribbean. It is a very complex forecast looking out beyond 5 days that is for sure.

[AxaltaRacing24]

We know why the models are turning sharp north. Its a ramdom mid to upper low that forms over the mississippi valley that lifts it north.. they are probably not
going to say nothing.. but like most its extremely unlikely

Actually it doesn't look random. Levi pointed this out in his video on tropicaltidbits.com. Looks like all global models show some kind of trough or piece of energy that moves SE from the Montana area on the west side of the big trough over the Eastern CONUS. That could cause the cyclone to make a hard turn nearing Florida. No doubt cyclones can turn on a dime no matter how strong. We saw this with Matthew in the Caribbean. It is a very complex forecast looking out beyond 5 days that is for sure.

It didn't turn nearly as quick as expected. It stalled out,did a cyclonic loop before resuming west for a bit. It then did another loop and then went NNE. Many people blamed the sudden W track shifts on the delayed turning due to it allowing the ridge to build. But I agree, it can happen. Joaquin stalled then headed away.