ATL: JOSE - Models

[OntarioEggplant]

The 06Z GFS is crazy... If that were to happen, José would probably break the longevity record set by Hurricane Ginger

Party like its 1899

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_ ... _hurricane

Meh I don't like to count if they extratropically transitioned in the middle of it.

[SouthDadeFish]

Has the noaa gulfstream data been in there yet to sample the upper air data, if it has that I did not know it had been in there already.

No and it doesn't appear to have any scheduled. I'm just saying I don't think it makes much of a difference.

So your saying with such a complex setup and the models are all over the place that extra data offshore ( where we have little to nothing) to help with the strength of the ridge and exiting trough would not help ?

I don't want to put words in RL3AO's mouth, but I believe the point he is trying to make is that the models do a pretty decent job without special synoptic soundings or G-IV flights. The amount of satellite and aircraft observations that are being ingested are substantial. Clearly extra observations will help with forecast accuracy, but I think it would be silly to discredit model runs without these observations. With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some special obs planned soon, as the threat from Jose to the US continues to increase with each westward shift in the models.

[txwatcher91]

Can't ignore the west trend now. NHC will need to jump west just to stay near the eastern edge of the cone.

Agreed. They have been way too slow to address these changes and completely ignoring the UK output was a bad idea. I never thought this was going to Florida... but I did think a significant shift west was likely if it took a path similar to what the UK showed. Now with the UK showing a storm right off the coast of NC and many other models including the Euro on board, chances for coastal impacts are quickly increasing. The 06z GEFS shifted significantly west again btw.

[CrazyC83]

We definitely need better sampling. No missions for any aircraft are planned? This is too close for comfort...

Additional balloon launches would also be helpful IMO.

[drezee]

Just send a global hawk please....people have hurricane fatigue

[txwatcher91]

We definitely need better sampling. No missions for any aircraft are planned? This is too close for comfort...

Additional balloon launches would also be helpful IMO.

Agreed, whether or not is was coincidence, when they started doing them with Irma we saw the track really lock on with all the globals shifting west as they picked up on the stronger ridging. The NHC has been really slow to react on this one and I imagine at 11am they'll be forced to put some coastal areas in their cone now that we've seen a continued west shift. A recon flight would be useful to get better center fixes as well.

[RL3AO]

We definitely need better sampling. No missions for any aircraft are planned? This is too close for comfort...

Additional balloon launches would also be helpful IMO.

Agreed, whether or not is was coincidence, when they started doing them with Irma we saw the track really lock on with all the globals shifting west as they picked up on the stronger ridging.

I didn't notice that. I very much remember seeing no significant model changes after the first surveillance flights and making a comment on it.

[txwatcher91]

We definitely need better sampling. No missions for any aircraft are planned? This is too close for comfort...

Additional balloon launches would also be helpful IMO.

Agreed, whether or not is was coincidence, when they started doing them with Irma we saw the track really lock on with all the globals shifting west as they picked up on the stronger ridging.

I didn't notice that. I very much remember seeing no significant model changes after the first surveillance flights and making a comment on it.

There wasn't a huge change after the first one, a small shift west, but subsequent flights saw additional adjustments west as it became clear the ridge was stronger than modeled. It could have been coincidence... or it could have been the extra data helping. I also think the center is a bit south of where the NHC has Jose (based on microwave data) which would have impacts on the future track. With the possibility of this becoming a large system right off the NE coast with a huge swath of TS force winds... it would certainly be worthwhile to do a recon fix and/or a G-IV flight in the next day or so.

[weathaguyry]

Hmm, large transitioning storm with some models hooking it back into the Mid-Atlantic, why does this sound familiar?

[Happy Pelican]

While I have no scientific data to back this up, we still have some time and just have to hope the escape hatch opens up. Not overly concerned just yet.

[Aric Dunn]

I really do love the 6Z gfs though .. brings harvey to the north atlantic then all the back south .. lol

[txwatcher91]

I really do love the 6Z gfs though .. brings harvey to the north atlantic then all the back south .. lol

I think you meant Jose there It would be fitting for this storm, and season, that something that crazy could happen.

[CrazyC83]

I really do love the 6Z gfs though .. brings harvey to the north atlantic then all the back south .. lol

I think you meant Jose there It would be fitting for this storm, and season, that something that crazy could happen.

A lengthy north to south track would be unprecedented in the record from what I could tell.

[Aric Dunn]

I really do love the 6Z gfs though .. brings harvey to the north atlantic then all the back south .. lol

I think you meant Jose there It would be fitting for this storm, and season, that something that crazy could happen.

haha .. yes JOSE.. sheesh lol

[gtalum]

I really do love the 6Z gfs though .. brings harvey to the north atlantic then all the back south .. lol

I think you meant Jose there It would be fitting for this storm, and season, that something that crazy could happen.

A lengthy north to south track would be unprecedented in the record from what I could tell.

Is such a thing even really possible? It seems that with a storm's desire to go north it would be extremely difficult for a solution to occur that drives the storm south for any significant length of time.

[OuterBanker]

Although the Euro is making me a little nervous I still think we are out of it. But, it could be an ideal situation for us here if it stays safely offshore.
We have a surfing competition that begins this Sunday for a week. Could provide some of the best waves ever.

http://www.surfesa.org/competition/easterns/

[OuterBanker]

Oops wrong place should be in discussion.

[Alyono]

TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2017 0 24.7N 66.2W 981 64
0000UTC 15.09.2017 12 25.2N 67.9W 984 63
1200UTC 15.09.2017 24 25.8N 70.0W 980 64
0000UTC 16.09.2017 36 26.7N 72.0W 975 69
1200UTC 16.09.2017 48 27.8N 73.5W 971 73
0000UTC 17.09.2017 60 28.6N 74.1W 966 70
1200UTC 17.09.2017 72 29.5N 74.3W 953 78
0000UTC 18.09.2017 84 30.6N 74.1W 944 83
1200UTC 18.09.2017 96 31.7N 74.6W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 108 32.7N 74.8W 947 73
1200UTC 19.09.2017 120 34.4N 74.8W 941 76
0000UTC 20.09.2017 132 36.6N 74.5W 942 74
1200UTC 20.09.2017 144 38.6N 73.9W 955 60

[GCANE]

Run-to-run, keeps building the high off the Maritimes.
Now up to 1034

[txwatcher91]

TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2017 0 24.7N 66.2W 981 64
0000UTC 15.09.2017 12 25.2N 67.9W 984 63
1200UTC 15.09.2017 24 25.8N 70.0W 980 64
0000UTC 16.09.2017 36 26.7N 72.0W 975 69
1200UTC 16.09.2017 48 27.8N 73.5W 971 73
0000UTC 17.09.2017 60 28.6N 74.1W 966 70
1200UTC 17.09.2017 72 29.5N 74.3W 953 78
0000UTC 18.09.2017 84 30.6N 74.1W 944 83
1200UTC 18.09.2017 96 31.7N 74.6W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 108 32.7N 74.8W 947 73
1200UTC 19.09.2017 120 34.4N 74.8W 941 76
0000UTC 20.09.2017 132 36.6N 74.5W 942 74
1200UTC 20.09.2017 144 38.6N 73.9W 955 60

Hmmm looks like a shift west and passing within maybe 30 miles of the OBX?