ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

A couple of local meats said Maria should miss Fl. As always, things can change. Who agrees at this point?

I agree they are meats.

[LarryWx]

A couple of local meats said Maria should miss Fl. As always, things can change. Who agrees at this point?

Based on the consensus of latest models including the best ones like the Euro/EPS and UKMET, the odds surely favor a FL miss to the east. Examples: only 7 of 50 12Z EPS members hit FL. But it is still very early and things can change. 7 of 50 is about 1 in 7, which is enough to still take Maria seriously. We need to watch model trends as we go forward due to model biases and extra uncertainties associated with Jose.

[Evenstar]

A couple of local meats said Maria should miss Fl. As always, things can change. Who agrees at this point?

I agree they are meats.

Or meatheads (for saying something that could lull people into a false sense of security).

[Aric Dunn]

Wow can we say a slight improvement .. from an hour ago just after recon left.. it could be starting the RI phase as we speak..

[EquusStorm]

If it holds and there isn't a big die-down in convection, that's one of the quickest CDO developments I've seen

[supercane4867]

Maria is likely bombing out tonight. At this rate we could see a major by tomorrow that's probably even CAT4+.

[psyclone]

A couple of local meats said Maria should miss Fl. As always, things can change. Who agrees at this point?

The real question to ask is what were these same mets saying when Irma resided near a similar longitude? Were they sounding the all clear as many did? I confess to having had a false sense of security myself. Some mets overhype but some undershoot to the downside. Both are inaccurate. It's too soon to know what, if any, impact Maria will have on the CONUS. Jose may indeed save the day but the jury is locked away in deliberations and we have no fly on the wall.

[EquusStorm]

Can I just say how thrilled I am at the timing of GOES-16? This has been a jaw-dropping month or so in the Atlantic and it has produced so many historic images...

[TJRE]

talk about cloud seeding....

[Gustywind]

Wow can we say a slight improvement .. from an hour ago just after recon left.. it could be starting the RI phase as we speak..

Hope no no oh boy this thing continues to improve each hour as you mentionned Aric. We do not like that in the Leewards.

[rickybobby]

Let me see if I get this right. If Jose is still around next week that means Maria will curve away from the US right?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Eye on radar:
http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

[TJRE]

Let me see if I get this right. If Jose is still around next week that means Maria will curve away from the US right?

Not if you follow the Euro

click thru the run from here
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... p_us_8.png

[Ken711]

Let me see if I get this right. If Jose is still around next week that means Maria will curve away from the US right?

That's about right, but it seems farfetched to me. I'm thinking NC/VA is in the crosshairs for landfall unfortunately.

[moupli]

MARIA...OMG...THAT thing seems very hard to the island

[cycloneye]

This thread is made for all the local information about preparations or observations as Maria moves thru the NE Caribbean islands.Web Cams ate also welcomed as well local weather ststements.

WTCA82 TJSJ 172245 CCA
HLSSJU
VIZ001-002-180545-

Hurricane Maria Local Statement Advisory Number 6...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR AL152017
645 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

This product covers THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS

**MARIA BECOMES A HURRICANE**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Watch has been issued for St Croix and
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for St Croix and St.Thomas...St.
John...and Adjacent Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 590 miles east-southeast of Saint Thomas VI or about 550
miles east-southeast of Saint Croix VI
- 13.8N 57.5W
- Storm Intensity 75 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 5 PM AST Maria was upgraded to a hurricane and a hurricane watch
was declared for the U.S. Virgin Islands, the outer Atlantic waters,
the outer Caribbean waters and the waters surrounding the northern U.S.
Virgin Islands. This means that hurricane condtions are expected in
the southeasternmost portion of these areas within 48 hours. Winds of
64 knots or more with higher gusts may be expected as early as this
time Tuesday afternoon. Maria is expected to cross near Saint Croix and
across Puerto Rico during the next 48 to 72 hours.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts
across U.S. Virgin Islands. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.
Potential impacts include:
- Guts may overwhelmingly overflow their banks in many places with
deep moving water. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become raging rivers. In mountain areas, deadly
runoff may rage down valleys while increasing susceptibility to
rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.

* SURGE:
Surge of 4 to 6 feet is expected--mainly on the southern coasts.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
For those under evacuation orders, leave as soon as practical with a
destination in mind. Gas up your vehicle well ahead of time. Be sure
that you take all essential materials from your emergency supplies kit.
Let others know where you are going and when you intend to arrive.

If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. Look
for additional traffic information on roadway smart signs and listen to
select radio channels for further travel instructions. Drivers should
not use cell phones while operating vehicles.

For those not under evacuation orders, understand that there are
inherent risks to evacuation (such as traffic congestion, accidents,
and driving in bad weather), so evacuate only if necessary. Help keep
roadways open for those that are under evacuation orders.

If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from
tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being
officially recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe
destination.

If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties
which must be taken into account.

If you live in a place that is particularly vulnerable to high wind,
such as a mobile home, an upper floor of a high rise building, or on
a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. Take enough supplies for you
and your family for several days.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley or canyon, or near an already swollen
river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in San Juan PR around 8:30 PM AST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$


Snell/Mitchell

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like an eye maybe starting to show on IR warming spot in the middle. sure looks like it.. CDO has become very symmetric quickly..

IR enhancement 4

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 57.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[SouthDadeFish]

That 22Z SSMIS pass is not a good look for the islands. I was hoping the intermediate SW shear would at least slow down the building of an inner-core, but from recon reports and microwave imagery, it looks like the core is basically finished. Unless the shear is stronger than analyzed, I fear RI is a strong possibility at this moment. The 18Z SHIPS RII gave a 45% chance for a 30 kt intensity increase in the next 24 hours. Basically a 50/50 shot for RI. I should add, a 30 kt increase from the initial 65 kt, puts Maria right at the threshold for major hurricane status.

[Gustywind]

Looks like an eye maybe starting to show on IR warming spot in the middle. sure looks like it.. CDO has become very symmetric quickly..

IR enhancement 4

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

Aric your eyes are deceiving you? or not