ATL: IRMA - Models

[shaneomac]

REally i cant see it plows through Cuba and still strengthens ? ya ok lol this is a definition of model mayhem

[Miami Storm Tracker]

i hate that run, hopefully this will change, I would have crazy damage in key Largo and Miami. I know that last two days the GFS has trended much further South and west. Hoping these runs change.

[tailgater]

Aussie model has been showing Irma crossing Cuba and hitting Tallahassee area.

Aussie model is the ukmet unified rebadged for Australia.

It goes out to ten days

[drezee]

GFS says 1935 on steroids...and a worse path up the spine...now freaking way...bjt I am saving this model run...horrible outcome if it verifies

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET with a massive SW shift. Scrapes Hispanola and ends with landfall in the very mountainous Eastern Cuba.




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[JPmia]

I think the GFS just broke Storm2k, but in all seriousness that's probably THE worst model run crushing South Florida that I have ever seen so we need to save these graphics for posterity. Call me a skeptic that this trend further west and south or even in the other direction is not over yet.

[Langinbang187]

884 MB after crossing the mountains of Cuba. GFS intensity forecasts are comical.

[SunnyThoughts]

As huge as she looks on those panels, I'm not even sure I would stay here in pensacola.

[crimi481]

I feel very dizzy

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It passes through my friend's place and relatives over West Palm Beach, Vero Beach and Port St Lucie!!

[sma10]

Imagine if that actually happened. FL would be wiped off the map.

Earlier runs I though the GFS was trolling Florida. I was wrong. It's actually trolling Storm2k

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the two lows are now interacting.. irma heading north will eventually swing nw ..

this is a very dynamic situation.. if that low does not develop then it would just continue drfiting into the gulf..

florida I dont think is getting out of a impact.. unless the trough start trending deeper..

[Blinhart]

Next plots likely move N....then NNW...landfall again se coast line.

Highly doubt it.

OK tell us where goes before all the run is dun.

I knew the SE Coast Line was out of the question.

[ObsessedMiami]

Serious question: Wasn't everyone complaining about the GFS being overhyped in its intensity forecasts earlier today? So why do you take this intensity seriously?

I'm not being a smart aleck just curious

[Kingslayer1254]

Ridge getting stronger each frame

I'm new here... Could explain to me what that means. Thanks.

[TheStormExpert]

UKMET with a massive SW shift. Scrapes Hispanola and ends with landfall in the very mountainous Eastern Cuba.




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Also notice how the 00z GFS OP has followed the cluster of 18z GEFS Ensembles that goes into Cuba and up the spine of Florida.

[jhpigott]

Yep, just about the worst possible solution for Florida

No kidding. This run would put the whole Miami, Ft Lauderdale and West Palm Beach metro in the right front quad of a cat 5. Pretty much an unmitigated disaster

[storm4u]

Canadian exactly like the gfs... Just weaker

[Blinhart]

REally i cant see it plows through Cuba and still strengthens ? ya ok lol this is a definition of model mayhem

It doesn't plow through Cuba, it stays on the coast or just off the coast so yes.

[Hurrilurker]

These models are all over the place on the intensity at/near landfall. Everywhere from 880s (!) to 960s, it's really hard to know what to make of it.