ATL: IRMA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

884 MB after crossing the mountains of Cuba. GFS intensity forecasts are comical.

then center never fully makes it inland.. rides the coast.

[weathaguyry]

Keeps shifting South, but realistically how much farther south can it shift??

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok guys...I have been a member of S2K since 2003, just over 14 years now. Before that I was a member on the GoPBI board. I HAVE NEVER seen a model run hit South Florida the likes of what we just watched. If this plays out with that intensity and track, it will be a disaster of epic proportions. Entire South East and Central Florida will be wrecked. 300 Billion might not come close to this estimate.

[AdamFirst]

Seriously doubt it'll be an 880 MB storm if that materialized, but I wouldn't doubt it would be very, very strong.

Looks like we're all staying up for the EURO once again.

[CrazyC83]

One outside possibility I am sensing: could the ridges completely hold, the trough not get far enough, and Irma stay south of everything into the Yucatan or Central America?

[Blinhart]

884 MB after crossing the mountains of Cuba. GFS intensity forecasts are comical.

It doesn't go over the mountains of Cuba.

[marciacubed]

It passes through my friend's place and relatives over West Palm Beach, Vero Beach and Port St Lucie!!

That goes right over my house in Boynton Beach and over my mom's near Palatka. This is a bad model run for me

[Steve]

GFS has my #2 worry after the Bahamas from Tuesday/Wednesday - S FL from the S, SSE or SE. I'm not sure I buy it. At least 8 of the last 9 GFS runs have a left component 2-300 miles inland. I wonder with it being this far south if that dynamic doesn't come into play and instead it moves NNE with the coast.

Edit it moves NE through Georgia. Need another plot or two to see if it hooks.

[tgenius]

If that pans out would make Andrew looks tame :/ the costs for a storm of that path would have to be over 100 billion.

[Langinbang187]

REally i cant see it plows through Cuba and still strengthens ? ya ok lol this is a definition of model mayhem

It doesn't plow through Cuba, it stays on the coast or just off the coast so yes.

That's all it would take for Cuba to weaken the storm pretty significantly.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How many times have I mentioned Donna for the past two days? I've now actually lost count!!

[eastcoastFL]

As huge as she looks on those panels, I'm not even sure I would stay here in pensacola.

With a storm that size is Floridians would have to head for the Midwest and likely stay there and start growing corn.

[sma10]

UKMET with a massive SW shift. Scrapes Hispanola and ends with landfall in the very mountainous Eastern Cuba.




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The GFS was great comic relief. Now back to whats going to be the real story this week. We have seen this movie before:
I believe that Irma is going to be a Greater Antilles storm.

[bamajammer4eva]

The way this trend is going could this end up moving SW enough to be a Caribbean cruiser??

[WeatherEmperor]

Canadian hits south florida at 144hrs




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[La Sirena]

As huge as she looks on those panels, I'm not even sure I would stay here in pensacola.

I'm not sure I'd stay here in southeast Alabama with those runs lol.

[ronyan]

REally i cant see it plows through Cuba and still strengthens ? ya ok lol this is a definition of model mayhem

It doesn't plow through Cuba, it stays on the coast or just off the coast so yes.

That's all it would take for Cuba to weaken the storm pretty significantly.

It would, but at least in this run it does not go over significant mountains in Cuba. There are no mountains in that part.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well y'all have been saying the best time to be in the bullseye would be in the longer range 6-7 days out. Y'all got your wish. At least you know it will change many more times in the coming days.

[TheStormExpert]

Good reminder.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904561659573919745

[CrazyC83]

If that pans out would make Andrew looks tame :/ the costs for a storm of that path would have to be over 100 billion.

If it was really 880mb at landfall, that would be over a trillion dollars.