ATL: IRMA - Models

[MetroMike]

If that scenario played out I would be driving up to Atlanta.

[MississippiWx]

The upper low that steers this into Florida doesn't even develop on the GFS until a week from now. Many more changes coming...

[GeneratorPower]

Good reminder.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904561659573919745

Now you tell me.

[eastcoastFL]

REally i cant see it plows through Cuba and still strengthens ? ya ok lol this is a definition of model mayhem

It doesn't plow through Cuba, it stays on the coast or just off the coast so yes.

That's all it would take for Cuba to weaken the storm pretty significantly.

That's false. It would weaken the storm minimally at best. We had Wilma roll across Florida from SW to NE and she didn't skip a beat. A storm that the eye stays partially over water especially of this magnitude would not be severely diminished at all.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

On the CMC run what would the winds be with a 971 mb.

[GeneratorPower]

If that scenario played out I would be driving up to Atlanta.

With 23 million of your closest friends.

[Blinhart]

0z GFS vs Florida

I think from I-10 north in Florida would be safe and not be completely washed off the map

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah this goes in Give Florida Storm (GFS)Hall of Fame. First Ballot. Exposes almost every major city to Hurricane conditions.

Do you have the UKMET?

Text and image

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.09.2017



HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 50.2W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 04.09.2017 17.2N 50.2W STRONG

12UTC 04.09.2017 16.5N 52.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2017 16.3N 54.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2017 16.4N 56.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.09.2017 16.7N 58.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2017 17.7N 60.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2017 18.6N 62.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2017 19.4N 65.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2017 19.8N 67.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2017 20.0N 70.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2017 20.0N 72.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2017 20.2N 73.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2017 20.6N 75.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE





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[blp]

Wow just realized CMC almost the same track but weaker. If Euro shows this then this is a problem.

[pcolaman]

As huge as she looks on those panels, I'm not even sure I would stay here in pensacola.

In Pensacola myself and my nerves just shot way, way up.

A big thank you to everyone who contributes their opinion. I highly appreciate being able to come here and get an insight that offers more than local weather stations.

I know right? Chanel 3 is the worst

[Blinhart]

HOLY f#%^

Even if you add 50mb to that it's still a disaster and I don't see anywhere for me and my family to run to.

State EOC cannot even begin to evacuate for this. Contraflow on the Turnpike has never been implemented but there are plans for it. Even with it, you can't move that many people out of South Florida. Your best bet is to take refuge at an approved Red Cross Hurricane Shelter. I've already discussed this with my wife. If this looks like it is going to play out this way, then that is the option we are leaning at if the intensity is indeed this bad. The only way you make it out of the state for Evac would probably be to leave by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest.

I think they would have to get with airlines and have free flights to evacuation areas with buses to transport them to where they are needed.

[drezee]

GFS says 1935 on steroids...and a worse path up the spine...now freaking way...but I am saving this model run...horrible outcome if it verifies

4 the wx geeks...what if Donna and the 1935 labor hurricane had a baby...yes the 0z GFS...i pray not

[Langinbang187]

It doesn't plow through Cuba, it stays on the coast or just off the coast so yes.

That's all it would take for Cuba to weaken the storm pretty significantly.

That's false. It would weaken the storm minimally at best. We had Wilma roll across Florida from SW to NE and she didn't skip a beat. A storm that the eye stays partially over water especially of this magnitude would not be severely diminished at all.

The storm literally scrapes the coast of Cuba for 24 hours. If you don't think that's going to cause the storm to weaken a decent amount I'm not really sure what to tell you.

[Aric Dunn]

wow UKMET also kills that random mid to upper low over the mississippi valley.. makes sense.. euro is going to come way west.. or its ensembles.

[BucMan2]

Earlier this evening I asked Aric what would happen in the Tampa Saint Pete Sarasota area if the storm went up the East Coast of Florida. He explained being on the west side not to bad. I guess if the most recent GFS verifies and goes up the spine of the state that answer may change a bit.

[Steve]

Lol at Maue trying to downplay hype. They are the kings of hype though i still support their pattern experience. HWRF right on the same spot as the last 2 runs at 27 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=246

[ConvergenceZone]

Where is the rest of the GFS run??? Seemed like posting them after next Sunday, or are they just delayed?

[RL3AO]

The UKMET and GFS taking this into Cuba needs to be seriously considered. The UKMET has been the best model so far with track forecast.

[ObsessedMiami]

0z GFS

[MWatkins]

Not waiting up for the Euro or GFS related hurricane guidance.

Exact track will continue to shift around - but not liking the general idea. No magical trough dropping down this time...but...still 6-7 days out is still model fantasy land.

Environmental flights will start feeding additional data into the global models starting Monday night. That should help...

MW