ATL: IRMA - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

Irma reemerges north of Daytona Beach, makes a second landfall along the Georgia Coast:

Thanks

[ConvergenceZone]

Just because nobody finished posting the run, doesn't mean it didn't finis running.

Guess I'm just used to it but, I just realized a couple of our main model posters aren't on tonight.....My bad....

[Aric Dunn]

wow UKMET also kills that random mid to upper low over the mississippi valley.. makes sense.. euro is going to come way west.. or its ensembles.

Upper low is there. Just develops in the 6-7 day time frame.

not the same mechanism.. a low forms but not like the 12z runs.

[toad strangler]

Ok guys...I have been a member of S2K since 2003, just over 14 years now. Before that I was a member on the GoPBI board. I HAVE NEVER seen a model run hit South Florida the likes of what we just watched. If this plays out with that intensity and track, it will be a disaster of epic proportions. Entire South East and Central Florida will be wrecked. 300 Billion might not come close to this estimate.

The unrelenting trend to the S & W has me in a OK spot. I'm in the same town as you! Have been here since late 2009 so Matthew was the closest I have been.

PSL is not a OK spot if this thing goes anywhere from the Northern coast of Cuba to Daytona, you will be walloped, so don't let your guard down.

Never let my guard down. I was saying that it leaves me in a OK MENTAL SPOT lol .....

[SouthFLTropics]

Just the fact that the GFS model run ends at 174 hours tell me alone not to trust it.........Not gonna happen........

Mine ran all the way through to 384... Didn't post any after the Florida destruction though...was too in shock to continue.

[USTropics]

Honestly past 120 hours (in this case, even 72 hours for the Leewards and PR has been subject to pretty significant changes for them) the possibilities are just so numerous you can't rule anything out. This is going to be another storm where nowcasting will have significant implications further down the road. I mean, look at the ensembles over just the past 24 hours. MASSIVE swings to the west have occurred. Only thing this GFS run has really done is open up the possibility of GOM residents also needing to pay attention now (the spread in solutions is that massive still).

[Raebie]

Just the fact that the GFS model run ends at 174 hours tell me alone not to trust it.........Not gonna happen........

I see it out way farther than that on tt

Hmm... I just scanned all the posts on the form and the last I can see is GFS at 174 hours.... I don't see anything after that.......

Here. They just weren't posted here after 174. Bookmark.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[Aric Dunn]

00z HWRF currently running...manages to stop the WSW dive at approximately 16.7-16.8 (hour 15) before heading due west for awhile then west-northwest.

that effectivley means the same thing.. its all about the wnw turn..

[bob rulz]

When does the Euro come out? I used to know these things but it's been a long time since I've followed storm models.

[Blinhart]

Ok guys...I have been a member of S2K since 2003, just over 14 years now. Before that I was a member on the GoPBI board. I HAVE NEVER seen a model run hit South Florida the likes of what we just watched. If this plays out with that intensity and track, it will be a disaster of epic proportions. Entire South East and Central Florida will be wrecked. 300 Billion might not come close to this estimate.

You're absolutely correct. Just thank God there is no chance of it happening.

You can never say there is no chance of it happening, just 2 weeks ago we said there is no way a storm can dump 50 inches of rain in one spot, and look what Harvey did.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm in complete SHOCK.

I honestly hope this doesn't verify, Jesus Christ.

[USTropics]

When does the Euro come out? I used to know these things but it's been a long time since I've followed storm models.

About 1:50AM ET time the ECMWF will start rolling in.

[psyclone]

That's all it would take for Cuba to weaken the storm pretty significantly.

That's false. It would weaken the storm minimally at best. We had Wilma roll across Florida from SW to NE and she didn't skip a beat. A storm that the eye stays partially over water especially of this magnitude would not be severely diminished at all.

The storm literally scrapes the coast of Cuba for 24 hours. If you don't think that's going to cause the storm to weaken a decent amount I'm not really sure what to tell you.

Georges ran the length of all the greater Antilles in 1998 as a hurricane. More recently Dennis did just fine in 05 as did Ike in 08. the storm will have access to plenty of rich tropical air from both coasts.. Middle Cuba is not mountainous and is fairly narrow. And storms go nuts in the straits. having said that, the GFS pressures are absurd. but a cat 1 can easily sustain on the Cuban coast and it could rapidly intensify on exit. there are plenty of examples.

[northjaxpro]

Did the GFS break Storm2K after revealing that Miami.landfall? Lol.. Wow! That run is no laughing matter though folks obviously with all 100% seriousness!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I was just listening to an online tropical report and they said, don't let this model run scare you, GFS has pulled this stuff time and time again........I guess they are the drama queen of the models.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is faster than 18z

[bob rulz]

When does the Euro come out? I used to know these things but it's been a long time since I've followed storm models.

About 1:50AM ET time the ECMWF will start rolling in.

Thanks!

[northjaxpro]

When does the Euro come out? I used to know these things but it's been a long time since I've followed storm models.

About 1 hour from now around 2 a.m. or just before.

[Dean4Storms]

I would caution against totally ignoring the GFS intensity on that run or at least thinking there is just no way Irma could reach sub 900mb. We all know the Labor Day Storm of 1935 was sub 900mb so the possibility is there.

[AdamFirst]

Full 00z GFS run - for the record