ATL: IRMA - Models

#5121 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:06 am

HWRF in the same spot at 60 hours for the 4th straight run.

#5122 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:06 am

northjaxpro wrote:Did the GFS break Storm2K after revealing that Miami.landfall? Lol.. Wow! That run is no laughing matter though folks obviously with all 100% seriousness!!

GFS did a mic drop. I'm in shock. And I'm in South Florida. Even if this run doesn't remotely verify the hordes at Sams Club tomorrow will be trouble all the same.

#5123 Postby **USTropics** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:10 am

In general, models perform terribly with intensity forecasts. Below are how the models have performed thus far with Irma (I haven't included the last 2 model suites):

bamajammer4eva · #5124 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:12 am

AdamFirst wrote:Full 00z GFS run - for the record

[img]https://i.imgur.com/LnNtW3C.gif

Verbatim that brings tropical storm force winds to the Fort Walton Beach area which is of course on the weak side of the storm.

#5125 Postby **toad strangler** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:12 am

GeneratorPower wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Did the GFS break Storm2K after revealing that Miami.landfall? Lol.. Wow! That run is no laughing matter though folks obviously with all 100% seriousness!!

GFS did a mic drop. I'm in shock. And I'm in South Florida. Even if this run doesn't remotely verify the hordes at Sams Club tomorrow will be trouble all the same.

Sam's Club @ Tradition Port Saint Lucie was already out of water later today...

#5126 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:13 am

HWRF shows close calls with Barbuda and Anguilla...comfortably close from Puerto Rico on a WNW heading at ~72hr

#5127 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:13 am

HWRF and HMON are both significantly weaker...

#5128 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:13 am

Well, they say the safest place to be this far out is dead center of the models, because they're never this good this far out. Hopefully that bodes true for Florida, because that is as 'Worst Case Scenario' as it gets.

I'm staying up tonight for the ECMWF, first time in a while. Have a feeling it's that kind of week ahead. I'm curious to see how far this south and westward trend continues. Like others have said, early shades of Ike. Theoretically, what is the farthest west that could be in play for Irma before it turns north?

#5129 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:14 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:Full 00z GFS run - for the record

[img]https://i.imgur.com/LnNtW3C.gif

Verbatim that brings tropical storm force winds to the Fort Walton Beach area which is of course on the weak side of the storm.

Would bring very strong winds to a whole lot of people - still a pretty decent looking storm way inland over Tennessee, albeit rapidly weakening.

AxaltaRacing24 · #5130 Postby **AxaltaRacing24** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:15 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:HWRF and HMON are both significantly weaker...

922mb compared to 911mb ain't that much of a difference. The HMON should not be showing 860s in the first place either. With recon data in it I think that fixed it.

#5131 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:16 am

Yes, Irma rides I-95 right up through the entire East Coast, all the way through Jacksonville and up into Georgia on that latest GFS run.

This would be the most devastating worst case scenario ever imaginable for the state. Wow!!

This is beyond a nightmarish scenario I can assure you all of that if this comes any where close to coming to fruition!

bamajammer4eva · #5132 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:17 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:HWRF and HMON are both significantly weaker...

922mb compared to 911mb ain't that much of a difference. The HMON should not be showing 860s in the first place either. With recon data in it I think that fixed it.

Yeah HMON had 857mb earlier would be epic

#5133 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:18 am

toad strangler wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Did the GFS break Storm2K after revealing that Miami.landfall? Lol.. Wow! That run is no laughing matter though folks obviously with all 100% seriousness!!

GFS did a mic drop. I'm in shock. And I'm in South Florida. Even if this run doesn't remotely verify the hordes at Sams Club tomorrow will be trouble all the same.

Sam's Club @ Tradition Port Saint Lucie was already out of water later today...

Hehe. I've got storm supplies up the wahzoo. I need fish sticks and chicken nuggets. Might have to push down some old ladies but ima gonna get em.

AxaltaRacing24 · #5134 Postby **AxaltaRacing24** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:18 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:HWRF and HMON are both significantly weaker...

922mb compared to 911mb ain't that much of a difference. The HMON should not be showing 860s in the first place either. With recon data in it I think that fixed it.

HMON had 857mb earlier

Yeah. With recon data in the models now there's literally no reason for the model to show that.

birddogsc · #5135 Postby **birddogsc** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:19 am

The last several runs of the models all indicate a hard right turn. So, I guess it's a matter of timing - forward speed of Irma vs an opening in the ridge. We really need that oceanic synoptic data.

#5136 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:20 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:HWRF and HMON are both significantly weaker...

Reality settling in?

#5137 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:20 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:HWRF and HMON are both significantly weaker...

If you run the last 4 and only count the last reading. Up to 81 hours:

HWRF
00Z - 918
18Z - 912
12Z - 925
06Z - 931

AxaltaRacing24 · #5138 Postby **AxaltaRacing24** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:21 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:HWRF and HMON are both significantly weaker...

Reality settling in?

For the HMON yes. The HWRF is only a 6mb difference at this point.

sma10 · #5139 Postby **sma10** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:21 am

Blinhart wrote:
sma10 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Ok guys...I have been a member of S2K since 2003, just over 14 years now. Before that I was a member on the GoPBI board. I HAVE NEVER seen a model run hit South Florida the likes of what we just watched. If this plays out with that intensity and track, it will be a disaster of epic proportions. Entire South East and Central Florida will be wrecked. 300 Billion might not come close to this estimate.

You're absolutely correct. Just thank God there is no chance of it happening.

You can never say there is no chance of it happening, just 2 weeks ago we said there is no way a storm can dump 50 inches of rain in one spot, and look what Harvey did.

Sorry, didn't really explain myself adequately there. Yes i agree that there is a chance that someday that scenario could happen.

But until the Euro and UK come back with showing a sub-900 cat 5 going directly up florida's spine, i am not buying it for a second.

#5140 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:21 am

With that 00z GFS run and assuming the trend West continues, we can't even rule out the GOM anymore.

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