ATL: IRMA - Models

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

0z storm.
Going off the eye track looks too me the storm moves n..then nnw






Was just 1 run.

[Cat5Danny]

Every Hurricane season I come here for all the updates and helpful comments. I have learn a lot for all of you.
Wow wow is all I can say after that GFS run.I lived through Hurricane David in1979 in Sto Dgo and Andrew here in Miami in 92. I just cannot see myself going through this again, specially with my wife and my 6 years old. Total nightmare scenario!

[AdamFirst]

The last several runs of the models all indicate a hard right turn. So, I guess it's a matter of timing - forward speed of Irma vs an opening in the ridge. We really need that oceanic synoptic data.

Yes, that is a fair point - pretty much all of these models have been showing the hard turn. The 18z GFS had it over the NW Bahamas, as did the 12z EURO. The 00z GFS has it over the Florida Straits (with disastrous consequences if verified).

Once again it all comes down to timing.

[toad strangler]

GFS did a mic drop. I'm in shock. And I'm in South Florida. Even if this run doesn't remotely verify the hordes at Sams Club tomorrow will be trouble all the same.

Sam's Club @ Tradition Port Saint Lucie was already out of water later today...

Hehe. I've got storm supplies up the wahzoo. I need fish sticks and chicken nuggets. Might have to push down some old ladies but ima gonna get em.

Same here. All essentials always stocked up mainly because I camp a lot. I did sneak away with 6 cases of water today as the very last of the pallets they had disappeared. That doubled my inventory. It was weird. It was the pre mayhem excursion but there were many there who had a clue.

[bhj867]

HWRF and HMON are both significantly weaker...

922mb compared to 911mb ain't that much of a difference. The HMON should not be showing 860s in the first place either. With recon data in it I think that fixed it.

Yeah HMON had 857mb earlier would be epic

Is it even scientifically possible to get a storm with mb that low in the atlantic?? This all seems like hype to me.

[ConvergenceZone]

I always trust the EURO, much more than I trust the GFS, and if you look back at previous storms, and based upon the comments here, it has a much better track record when it comes to the tropics.......So I"m anxious to see what it says......When the EURO speaks, I listen

[AdamFirst]

GEFS (ensembles) focused over FL peninsula.

[sma10]

0Z Gfs ensemble mean (fwiw) actually tracks right up the Florida coast. The west coast.

[AxaltaRacing24]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherXwf/status/904577192029388800

[bamajammer4eva]

The last several runs of the models all indicate a hard right turn. So, I guess it's a matter of timing - forward speed of Irma vs an opening in the ridge. We really need that oceanic synoptic data.

Yes, that is a fair point - pretty much all of these models have been showing the hard turn. The 18z GFS had it over the NW Bahamas, as did the 12z EURO. The 00z GFS has it over the Florida Straits (with disastrous consequences if verified).

Once again it all comes down to timing.

But wouldnt at some point the models just give up on the right turn and continue west under influence of another ridge to the west??

[Steve]

NAVGEM filling in the blanks, but at 120 it's 10mb weaker than 18 because it's farther south along the north coast of Cuba.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=211

[AxaltaRacing24]

The last several runs of the models all indicate a hard right turn. So, I guess it's a matter of timing - forward speed of Irma vs an opening in the ridge. We really need that oceanic synoptic data.

Yes, that is a fair point - pretty much all of these models have been showing the hard turn. The 18z GFS had it over the NW Bahamas, as did the 12z EURO. The 00z GFS has it over the Florida Straits (with disastrous consequences if verified).

Once again it all comes down to timing.

But wouldnt at some point the models just give up on the right turn and continue west under influence of another ridge to the west??

There is STRONG agreement on a turn and there has been since day 1. But it is going to happen MUCH later than thought.

[CrazyC83]

CMC has same track as GFS, but with a more realistic intensity (although probably too low pre-Florida landfall).

[sma10]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherXwf/status/904577192029388800

Ok, lets see then.

The trends we have seen the last several nights of model watching: Euro always follows Uk; GFS always to the right. Maybe the Euro will surprise shortly

[Bocadude85]

Wow seems like all hell broke loose while I was gone..remember these runs are still 6-7 days away...they will change that's a guarantee

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS Ensemble 18z to 00z Trend

[CrazyTropics]

This is one run folks with 7 or so days. This could change as we have seen. Talk about some panic people in FL. Keep your heads and watch those models. Seems sort of off this far west. That ridge seems over done and the trough seems too strong

[Aric Dunn]

thats ok.. hwrf is only at 174 kts... no big deal.. lol

well I guess there was 193 kt in there too briefly..

[Aric Dunn]

This is one run folks with 7 or so days. This could change as we have seen. Talk about some panic people in FL. Keep your heads and watch those models. Seems sort of off this far west. That ridge seems over done and the trough seems too strong

one run ?

[SouthFLTropics]

thats ok.. hwrf is only at 174 kts... no big deal.. lol

well I guess there was 193 kt in there too briefly..

Aric, are you sure you're not looking at the 850mb level??? I haven't seen anything above 134...Not that 134 is anything to laugh at.