ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5161 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:42 am

CrazyTropics wrote:This is one run folks with 7 or so days. This could change as we have seen. Talk about some panic people in FL. Keep your heads and watch those models. Seems sort of off this far west. That ridge seems over done and the trough seems too strong

We're not panicking just yet but when you see models coming into agreement on synoptics/motions that bring a storm towards your area near days 4-6 with recon data to back it up, that's when you at least start to play attention.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5162 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:42 am

Yea, I think if the GFS ends up going right again to South Carolina/North Carolina area, I think a Cat 3 or 4 is possible, but if the current GFS path is correct, probably a cat 1, MAYBE 2, but probably cat 1...Even if it don't go over the mountains of Cuba, the land itself will either disrupt it or if it's not mountainous, keep it from strengthening. I just don't think it would thread the needle perfectly and not interact with any land....Thus a much weaker storm seems likely.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5163 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:42 am

Image

I think what Aric is trying to say is the difference between 915mb and 924mb is redundant.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5164 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:43 am

Aric Dunn wrote:thats ok.. hwrf is only at 174 kts... no big deal.. lol

well I guess there was 193 kt in there too briefly..


"...... the updated forecast for Miami and Vicinity, most cloudy with tornadic conditions for most of the day. High temperatures leveling off in the mid 80's...."
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5165 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:44 am

AdamFirst wrote:
birddogsc wrote:The last several runs of the models all indicate a hard right turn. So, I guess it's a matter of timing - forward speed of Irma vs an opening in the ridge. We really need that oceanic synoptic data.


Yes, that is a fair point - pretty much all of these models have been showing the hard turn. The 18z GFS had it over the NW Bahamas, as did the 12z EURO. The 00z GFS has it over the Florida Straits (with disastrous consequences if verified).

Once again it all comes down to timing.


100% correct!! It will all have to play out perfectly with the timing with Irma getting caught by the weakness (trough) to hopefully spare all of Florida the scenario we just saw from the GFS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5166 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:46 am

Euro Initialized

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5167 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:46 am

looks like HWRF is heading towards cuba too..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5168 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:47 am

HWRF at 117 hours...Stopping off for some Cuban Cigars

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5169 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:48 am

After digesting this last GFS run, now watch the Euro come on in with Irma suddenly re curving out to sea well over 500 miles east of the S.E. Conus. That'll certainly drive many to drinking :lol: (highly doubtful however)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5170 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:49 am

This is all starting to get a little crazy...What's the odds this thing could pull a Mitch and defy all the models and just dive South over Cuba???
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5171 Postby bhj867 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:50 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Euro Initialized

Image

:sick: :sick: :sick:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5172 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:51 am

HMON finishes this way between Andros Island and the Cuban Coast. Still VERY STRONG.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5173 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:52 am

so HWRF shifts even more and pretty much makes landfall on cuba..

another big shift. emsemble members may be pushing the central gulf now..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5174 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:52 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:This is all starting to get a little crazy...What's the odds this thing could pull a Mitch and defy all the models and just dive South over Cuba???


A secondary WSW motion through Cuba following a trip through the Florida straits? Plausible, though i'd guess a bit less likely than Irma scampering west through the straits and into the S.E. GOM.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5175 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:52 am

NAVGEM jumps from 120 to 180 but appears to be hitting Georgia. By then circulation is interrupted so it may have at least brushed FL in those hours in between 120-180 you would think.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=180
Last edited by Steve on Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5176 Postby bhj867 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:52 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:HMON finishes this way between Andros Island and the Cuban Coast. Still VERY STRONG.

Image


Again, I will ask it again. Is this even scientifically possible in the Atlantic? I don't think so. What is wrong with the models?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5177 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:53 am

HWRF completed...On the Cuban Coast

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5178 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:54 am

hmm. euro continues the wsw motion for 24 more hours.. that brings it 16n or below.. no good.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5179 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:54 am

24 Hours

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5180 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:55 am

Aric Dunn wrote:so HWRF shifts even more and pretty much makes landfall on cuba..


That makes 2 out of 3.
I will be very surprised if euro doesnt go thru Cuba with tonights run - its the only thing that makes sense, given the past several days trends.
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