ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

hmm. euro continues the wsw motion for 24 more hours.. that brings it 16n or below.. no good.

Definitely not good for our friends in the islands. Luis may get a direct hit this time.

[chaser1]

Aric, I think you're right with Irma's satellite presentation right now. I'd bet money that if recon were in there anytime soon, we'd see that winds will have upped to Cat 4 level. That eye is once again beginning to look so small, you couldn't fly a kite in it lol.

[Aric Dunn]

hmm. euro continues the wsw motion for 24 more hours.. that brings it 16n or below.. no good.

Definitely not good for our friends in the islands. Luis may get a direct hit this time.

looks like from 16 to 16.4 north ...

[AdamFirst]

NAVGEM rides up the coast. Tropical Tidbits missing multiple hours of plots.

[MississippiWx]

GFS, CMC, UKMET, HWRF, and HMON all with large southwest shifts at 0z. GFS ensembles cluster into the Southeastern Gulf just off the coast of SW Florida in 7 days.

If the Euro shifts southwest from its earlier run, it will nearly be in the Caribbean.

[blp]

Another look at the UKmet which has been very good so far and was the outlier to the west on 12z is now even more extreme with landfall in eastern Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

48 Hours

[Aric Dunn]

oh boy unless that turns more wnw its going right arcoss PR..

[Bocadude85]

If these trends keep up Irma may miss Florida to the south.

[SouthFLTropics]

If these trends keep up Irma may miss Florida to the south.

I was thinking that...Could be a west coast rider or a panhandle problem. I never dreamed these SW shifts would continue like this.

[Steve]

never mind. It was late with graphics update for last frame.

[RL3AO]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days and the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

[blp]

The crazy part is we are still looking at a 7 day forecast. So who knows where this goes in the next couple of days.

[sma10]

If these trends keep up Irma may miss Florida to the south.

Indeed, becoming quite a possibility.

And even if not, unknown what shape the entity will be in given possible significant land interaction

[SouthFLTropics]

72 Hours...Watch out PR

[Alyono]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days, the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

should've caught the faster than expected WSW motion. TCs nearly always move faster than the guidance indicates in the tropical Atlantic

[blp]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days, the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

Yeah I wonder if soon we reach the end of the SW shifts and on the next run it comes back east a little. I mean it has been shifting for 2 days straight.

[MississippiWx]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days, the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

Could go way more west if the upper low that develops over the Central Gulf States were to not pan out properly. Tricky business when cut-off upper lows are in the picture.

[SouthFLTropics]

Worst part about the Euro is waiting so long between the output. Wish we could get fixes every 6 hours like GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days and the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

actually its more that random low that developed for a few runs over the the mississippi valley.. the intitial trend started with the trough lifting faster and irma slower ... then it was trough lifting and weaker, ridge stronger and irma faster at which time it didnt matter at that point .. then we saw the sharp tuen from the random low for the last 24 hours.. now thats gone and we have more west shift..