Moisture filling in and 200mb vort a bit less strong.
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chaser1 wrote:With the latest discussion laying everything out, i'm gonna go out on a limb here. Assuming that Harvey will have at least maintained its identity as a closed system, I believe that the storm will undergo some significant strengthening at its crossing 70W and within the 24-36 hr. period. I'll further guess that Belize or Yucatan will have to brace for a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. As I see it, the cut-off centered over the Florida Straits will continue to not only move westward but more importantly will gain latitude as well. I think that the shear impacting Harvey now will lesson in about 24 hours as the storm moves a little further west and that we'll see a broader upper anticyclonic flow begin to bridge south and over the Central Caribbean. Obviously no models seems to think that and NHC seems to be hinting towards possibly better upper conditions but further out than that. Hmmm, maybe I wont quite bet the farm on it LOL; better I keep it to a 6-pack of beer!
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:chaser1 wrote:With the latest discussion laying everything out, i'm gonna go out on a limb here. Assuming that Harvey will have at least maintained its identity as a closed system, I believe that the storm will undergo some significant strengthening at its crossing 70W and within the 24-36 hr. period. I'll further guess that Belize or Yucatan will have to brace for a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. As I see it, the cut-off centered over the Florida Straits will continue to not only move westward but more importantly will gain latitude as well. I think that the shear impacting Harvey now will lesson in about 24 hours as the storm moves a little further west and that we'll see a broader upper anticyclonic flow begin to bridge south and over the Central Caribbean. Obviously no models seems to think that and NHC seems to be hinting towards possibly better upper conditions but further out than that. Hmmm, maybe I wont quite bet the farm on it LOL; better I keep it to a 6-pack of beer!
Lol if that came to fruition the trough would definitely pull it due Northward !!!
chaser1 wrote:Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:chaser1 wrote:With the latest discussion laying everything out, i'm gonna go out on a limb here. Assuming that Harvey will have at least maintained its identity as a closed system, I believe that the storm will undergo some significant strengthening at its crossing 70W and within the 24-36 hr. period. I'll further guess that Belize or Yucatan will have to brace for a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. As I see it, the cut-off centered over the Florida Straits will continue to not only move westward but more importantly will gain latitude as well. I think that the shear impacting Harvey now will lesson in about 24 hours as the storm moves a little further west and that we'll see a broader upper anticyclonic flow begin to bridge south and over the Central Caribbean. Obviously no models seems to think that and NHC seems to be hinting towards possibly better upper conditions but further out than that. Hmmm, maybe I wont quite bet the farm on it LOL; better I keep it to a 6-pack of beer!
Lol if that came to fruition the trough would definitely pull it due Northward !!!
Perhaps. I dont think it would to the extent that the E. Gulf would have to worry about it; but I could see that set up aid in its gaining enough latitude to pose a potential threat to your guys in Texas.
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:chaser1 wrote:Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:Lol if that came to fruition the trough would definitely pull it due Northward !!!
Perhaps. I dont think it would to the extent that the E. Gulf would have to worry about it; but I could see that set up aid in its gaining enough latitude to pose a potential threat to your guys in Texas.
Of course that's what I meant ! Yeah the Weather Channel says it could impact the Texas coast next week so it's definitely something to watch half of the models are split .... HWRF takes Harvey due North into the Gulf now ! It's a dangerous trend
Cunxi Huang wrote:Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:chaser1 wrote:
Perhaps. I dont think it would to the extent that the E. Gulf would have to worry about it; but I could see that set up aid in its gaining enough latitude to pose a potential threat to your guys in Texas.
Of course that's what I meant ! Yeah the Weather Channel says it could impact the Texas coast next week so it's definitely something to watch half of the models are split .... HWRF takes Harvey due North into the Gulf now ! It's a dangerous trend
How about just chill down...it is just too early to talk about the long-term forecast. Well the Channel says that could happen NEXT WEEK since it's still Friday today, and HWRF's forecast does not show an impact to Texas. By the way media always exaggerate things sometimes. So just chill down and don't be some kind of aggressive.
Alyono wrote:model ping pong continues. GFS now keeps the system alive
Alyono wrote:model ping pong continues. GFS now keeps the system alive
srainhoutx wrote:Alyono wrote:model ping pong continues. GFS now keeps the system alive
Look at that upper trough dropping S interacting with the TUTT. The models are clearly struggling. Need the NOAA Global Hawk missions and additional NWS Forecast Office special balloon launches next week.
chaser1 wrote:With the latest discussion laying everything out, i'm gonna go out on a limb here. Assuming that Harvey will have at least maintained its identity as a closed system, I believe that the storm will undergo some significant strengthening at its crossing 70W and within the 24-36 hr. period. I'll further guess that Belize or Yucatan will have to brace for a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. As I see it, the cut-off centered over the Florida Straits will continue to not only move westward but more importantly will gain latitude as well. I think that the shear impacting Harvey now will lesson in about 24 hours as the storm moves a little further west and that we'll see a broader upper anticyclonic flow begin to bridge south and over the Central Caribbean. Obviously no models seems to think that and NHC seems to be hinting towards possibly better upper conditions but further out than that. Hmmm, maybe I wont quite bet the farm on it LOL; better I keep it to a 6-pack of beer!
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:Cunxi Huang wrote:Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:Of course that's what I meant ! Yeah the Weather Channel says it could impact the Texas coast next week so it's definitely something to watch half of the models are split .... HWRF takes Harvey due North into the Gulf now ! It's a dangerous trend
How about just chill down...it is just too early to talk about the long-term forecast. Well the Channel says that could happen NEXT WEEK since it's still Friday today, and HWRF's forecast does not show an impact to Texas. By the way media always exaggerate things sometimes. So just chill down and don't be some kind of aggressive.
I'm not saying it'll happen I'm just saying to stay on watch
lrak wrote:Shoot, we haven't had a real threat since 1980 with Allen. I sure hope it doesn't form up like some are saying, I like my A/C and running water. I don't want to go to SA and get a hotel, my salt tank will die. Hopefully it'll just be a sheared storm with lots of beneficial rain. After reading all the posts on Storm2K of post hurricane strikes over the years has me a bit worried now, especially all the stories from Florida and Louisiana.
Hurricane Allen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen#/media/File:Allen_1980_track.png
lrak wrote:Shoot, we haven't had a real threat since 1980 with Allen. I sure hope it doesn't form up like some are saying, I like my A/C and running water. I don't want to go to SA and get a hotel, my salt tank will die. Hopefully it'll just be a sheared storm with lots of beneficial rain. After reading all the posts on Storm2K of post hurricane strikes over the years has me a bit worried now, especially all the stories from Florida and Louisiana.
Hurricane Allen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen#/media/File:Allen_1980_track.png
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