ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Happy Pelican]

NHC really has a love/hate relationship with the Ukmet

[Aric Dunn]

hmm still a little tilted.. low level center sitting right on 25N and the mid leve is down arond 24.5 N.. so no northerly motion all day so far..

[img]https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc17/ATL/12L.JOSE/tc_ssmis/color/1degreeticks/20170914.1126.f18.x.colorpct_91h_91v_1deg.12LJOSE.65kts-986mb-250N-662W.67pc.jpg[/mg]

nevermind wrong one..lol

here is the latests..
not quite WNW... maybe at 15.1

[Aric Dunn]

yeah still pretty much 25.1 looks a little more aligned. weird looking proto eyewall though

[txwatcher91]

It’s looking much better now Aric. What are your thoughts on intensity and track for Jose? Do you buy into the UK west track?

[Aric Dunn]

It’s looking much better now Aric. What are your thoughts on intensity and track for Jose? Do you buy into the UK west track?

the UKMET is quite possible.. will know more once it really starts moving..

[Aric Dunn]

The latest convective burst really shows where the center likely is.. not near that blob to the NE.. still down very near 25N

also becasue the MLC has been much stronger its possible the LLC has migrated closer to it..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

[invest man]

The latest convective burst really shows where the center likely is.. not near that blob to the NE.. still down very near 25N

also becasue the MLC has been much stronger its possible the LLC has migrated closer to it..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

How do you think this will effect track down the line? IM

[Aric Dunn]

The latest convective burst really shows where the center likely is.. not near that blob to the NE.. still down very near 25N

also becasue the MLC has been much stronger its possible the LLC has migrated closer to it..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

How do you think this will effect track down the line? IM

Not much its still close enough to current forecast. we need another day or so of steady motion..

[Ken711]

I'm afraid we are going to have a landfall with Jose with another day of west trends by tomorrow.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/908481466023149568

[Ken711]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Although the shear affecting Jose for the past several days appears
to be relenting, deep convection is still limited to the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, perhaps in part due to dry air that was
observed earlier today. A blend a objective and subjective current
intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt.

No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains
near the multi-model consensus. Based on SHIPS diagnostics from the
GFS and ECMWF models, Jose should become embedded in a more humid
environment beginning in about 12 h, and this, along with warm
SSTSs, should support at least gradual strengthening. The intensity
guidance remains in fairly good agreement that Jose will become a
hurricane again tomorrow, and will have about 48-72 hours to
intensify further before the shear increases substantially. Toward
the end of the forecast, gradual weakening is forecast, but Jose is
still expected to be a hurricane at day 5.

Much like the intensity forecast, very little change has been made
to the NHC track forecast. Based on a few recent microwave images,
Jose seems to be continuing to move west-northwestward at around
7 kt. Jose is still expected to track along the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward
the north over the next 2 days. Aside from the UKMET, which
remains an outlier, the models are in fairly good agreement on the
future heading of Jose, and vary mostly in speed. The new NHC
forecast continues to generally split the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is close to HCCA, which should account for the UKMET's recent west
bias.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.

2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 25.5N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 26.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 26.9N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 27.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 29.0N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 31.4N 72.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 34.2N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 37.0N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN

[Aric Dunn]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Although the shear affecting Jose for the past several days appears
to be relenting, deep convection is still limited to the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, perhaps in part due to dry air that was
observed earlier today. A blend a objective and subjective current
intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt.

No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains
near the multi-model consensus. Based on SHIPS diagnostics from the
GFS and ECMWF models, Jose should become embedded in a more humid
environment beginning in about 12 h, and this, along with warm
SSTSs, should support at least gradual strengthening. The intensity
guidance remains in fairly good agreement that Jose will become a
hurricane again tomorrow, and will have about 48-72 hours to
intensify further before the shear increases substantially. Toward
the end of the forecast, gradual weakening is forecast, but Jose is
still expected to be a hurricane at day 5.

Much like the intensity forecast, very little change has been made
to the NHC track forecast. Based on a few recent microwave images,
Jose seems to be continuing to move west-northwestward at around
7 kt. Jose is still expected to track along the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward
the north over the next 2 days. Aside from the UKMET, which
remains an outlier, the models are in fairly good agreement on the
future heading of Jose, and vary mostly in speed. The new NHC
forecast continues to generally split the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is close to HCCA, which should account for the UKMET's recent west
bias.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.

2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 25.5N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 26.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 26.9N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 27.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 29.0N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 31.4N 72.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 34.2N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 37.0N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN

lol Im sorry ( only respect) but is Zelinsky selling auto parts ? ( maybe spelled different) but you better believe that Callahan auto parts is sending Tommy Boy !

[Fountainguy97]

Jose has had extremely healthy cloud tops in its CDO for almost 4 hours now. At this rate we can expect to see some very impressive strengthening soon. Shear almost gone, outflow looking impressive around entire circulation (south side of outflow is retreating some but still healthy) SST's plenty warm for very quick deepening... Jose may surprise some folks tomorrow morning.

NHC better be extremely careful. That's a rather conservative intensity and cone forecast given trends and current storm synopsis.

[CrazyC83]

Is there another Recon mission planned?

[Bizzles]

Is there another Recon mission planned?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141643
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT THU 14 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-104

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM JOSE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 15/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0512A JOSE
C. 15/1330Z
D. 26.1N 69.9W
E. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A 16/1730Z FIX OF JOSE
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK:
A. A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 17/18Z NEAR 13.ON 55.OW.
B. A POSSIBLE G-IV FLIGHT AT 17/1730Z FOR JOSE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA
AT 16/2000Z NEAR 19.2N 109.5W.
$$
JWP

[Bizzles]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150858
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

Jose is showing signs of becoming better organized. The low-level
center is embedded well within a growing central dense overcast
(CDO). Despite the improved appearance of Jose, the Dvorak
classifications are largely unchanged since 6 hours ago, so the
intensity has been held at 60 kt. There has been no change in any
of the intensity guidance, so I see no reason to substantially
change the intensity forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is
very close to the multi-model consensus, and continues to show Jose
regaining hurricane status later today. Beginning around 72 h, an
increase in shear should bring an end to intensification, and will
probably cause Jose to weaken. Once again, some of the global
models suggest that Jose will remain a tropical cyclone through day
5, but that extratropical transition could begin around that time.
If that happens, baroclinic forcing could help maintain the
intensity of Jose, even as the shear increases.

Because the low-level circulation center of Jose is hidden beneath
the CDO, the initial position and heading are fairly uncertain. My
best estimate of the current motion is 290/7 kt. Despite the
initial motion uncertainty, the global models are coming into better
agreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with
the other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S.
That said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west
track, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi
in that direction. My new forecast is near the HFIP corrected
consensus, and now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.

2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 25.9N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 26.4N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 27.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 28.3N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 29.4N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 32.2N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 35.0N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 38.0N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[WeatherGuesser]

The back and forth on these threads always kills me. So, will it, or won't it?


I know, I know, stay tuned ..... Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel .....

[xironman]

The latest burst of overshooting tops looks to be right over the 5am position

[txwatcher91]

Jose has a MUCH improved structure this morning. Nice spiral banding, outflow spreading out, and a much broader envelope of convection too.

['CaneFreak]

Looking at water vapor this AM, it looks to me like the flow in the upper levels in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly more south to north oriented which is why this storm is going to come very close to the coast. Just how close it comes to the coast is going to be interesting. Your eyebrows have to be raised when you see the global models shifting west and this lines up with what you are seeing in real time. Buckle up. Going to be a very interesting next few days.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Looking at water vapor this AM, it looks to me like the flow in the upper levels in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly more south to north oriented which is why this storm is going to come very close to the coast. Just how close it comes to the coast is going to be interesting. Your eyebrows have to be raised when you see the global models shifting west and this lines up with what you are seeing in real time. Buckle up. Going to be a very interesting next few days.

The NJ landfall could happen from this, reminiscent of Sandy (but might be as a Cat. 2)... My "IMO" track of Jose hitting NYC directly might be wrong after all, but still disastrous (look at Sandy). I don't know why.