ATL: JOSE - Models

[stormreader]

with the GFS west shift, HWRF AND HMON shift east

Given how badly GFS verified with Irma, perhaps it should be considered as one of the unreliable models

It is, what it is!

[RL3AO]

Given how badly GFS verified with Irma, perhaps it should be considered as one of the unreliable models

I've been playing around with calculating the forecast error for the entire season. So far it's just the mean for the Atlantic with the GFS and NHC forecast. I'll work on adding the UKMET and Euro followed by some plots and/or variance analysis.

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Error (Through 12z 9/14) (all in nautical miles)
12 hr
GFS: 23.9
NHC: 22.5

24 hr
GFS: 34.3
NHC: 32.6

36 hr
GFS: 45.0
NHC: 41.9

48 hr
GFS: 60.3
NHC: 53.4

72 hr
GFS: 95.1
NHC: 86.1

96 hr
GFS: 135.8
NHC: 110.6

120 hr
GFS: 177.2
NHC: 134.5

[Alyono]

Given how badly GFS verified with Irma, perhaps it should be considered as one of the unreliable models

I've been playing around with calculating the forecast error for the entire season. So far it's just the mean for the Atlantic with the GFS and NHC forecast. I'll work on adding the UKMET and Euro followed by some plots and/or variance analysis.

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Error (Through 12z 9/14) (all in nautical miles)
12 hr
GFS: 23.9
NHC: 22.5

24 hr
GFS: 34.3
NHC: 32.6

36 hr
GFS: 45.0
NHC: 41.9

48 hr
GFS: 60.3
NHC: 53.4

72 hr
GFS: 95.1
NHC: 86.1

96 hr
GFS: 135.8
NHC: 110.6

120 hr
GFS: 177.2
NHC: 134.5

out of curiosity, can you do the 6 and 7 day verification?

[RL3AO]

out of curiosity, can you do the 6 and 7 day verification?

Here's graphical. And yes I did check the 7 day Jose verification with the Euro. The runs on the 5th lost tracking after 156 hrs or so (they had the worst 144 verification). The four runs that have verified were calculated correctly.

[aperson]

Looks like GFS 00z operational brings Jose far enough west to be in line with the west group of GEFS ensemble members from 18z/12z



Stronger ridge to the NE makes this seem like much more of a landfall threat.

[CrazyC83]

At 120 hours, 00Z GFS is right off the NJ coast.

[Alyono]

very near Long Island this run. Looks like Hurricane Belle

[txwatcher91]

very near Long Island this run. Looks like Hurricane Belle

Do you have the UKMET text output? Also, just curious if you have a link for it? Thanks!

[Alyono]

massive east shift for the ukmet

TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 67.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2017 0 25.1N 67.6W 987 61
1200UTC 15.09.2017 12 25.8N 69.4W 985 61
0000UTC 16.09.2017 24 26.7N 71.2W 983 63
1200UTC 16.09.2017 36 27.8N 72.7W 974 68
0000UTC 17.09.2017 48 28.6N 73.3W 971 68
1200UTC 17.09.2017 60 29.3N 73.4W 960 76
0000UTC 18.09.2017 72 30.4N 73.1W 947 81
1200UTC 18.09.2017 84 31.7N 73.3W 942 80
0000UTC 19.09.2017 96 32.8N 73.1W 944 77
1200UTC 19.09.2017 108 34.5N 72.7W 943 77
0000UTC 20.09.2017 120 36.7N 71.9W 944 72
1200UTC 20.09.2017 132 38.5N 70.4W 950 69
0000UTC 21.09.2017 144 40.0N 67.0W 957 65

[TheDreamTraveler]

So the 0Z Euro shows it approaching the northeast and then heading east but then does a loop and comes back into New Jersey making landfall...This isn't the first time its showed a solution like this either. 12z Euro from Wednesday also showed a track almost identical.

[TheDreamTraveler]

[bob rulz]

This storm has got to be a major headache for the NHC to forecast.

[Ken711]

[YoshiMike]

Whoa

Getting way too close for comfort here in southern Connecticut

[HurricaneBelle]

very near Long Island this run. Looks like Hurricane Belle

I just had to like this post.

[YoshiMike]

very near Long Island this run. Looks like Hurricane Belle

I just had to like this post.

LOLOL nice XD

[xironman]

Martha's Vineyard

[OuterBanker]

The big difference from Sandy is that we are much earlier in the season and we have much weaker troughs. It won't take nearly as much for Jose to feel the ridge a lot more and break away. A landfalling scenario would be most like 1903.

1903 Hurricane:

Not to make it to light, but they actually named a hurricane Vagabond.

Too funny.

[CrazyC83]

I do think we should start to know more today as Recon flies back in, although there isn't a G-IV flight until Sunday.

[clipper35]

WOW, very quiet in this thread considering we have small threat to the midatlantic and north east states.