ATL: IRMA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days and the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

actually its more that random low that developed for a few runs over the the mississippi valley.. the intitial trend started with the trough lifting faster and irma slower ... then it was trough lifting and weaker, ridge stronger and irma faster at which time it didnt matter at that point .. then we saw the sharp tuen from the random low for the last 24 hours.. now thats gone and we have more west shift..

[AdamFirst]

EURO not all that dis-similar to the 12z run up to this point.

[RL3AO]

No significant changes in the trough this run of the Euro. Where will the turn occur and will it be as sudden as the 12z run?

[Bocadude85]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days, the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

should've caught the faster than expected WSW motion. TCs nearly always move faster than the guidance indicates in the tropical Atlantic

Realistically what is the threat level to Florida from Irma?

[RL3AO]

Realistically what is the threat level to Florida from Irma?

It's increasing by the hour.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Realistically what is the threat level to Florida from Irma?

It's increasing by the hour.

If the euro shows FL then that's bad. Yes the landfall is 6 days away but the puzzle pieces that make this happen are much closer.

[Alyono]

Worst part about the Euro is waiting so long between the output. Wish we could get fixes every 6 hours like GFS.

you can. Just have to pay

[xironman]

I only have the 24 hour intervals on TropicalTidbits, but comparing Sun 0z with Mon 0 the trough is eroding the ridge just a bit more to the east at 72

[Hurrilurker]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days, the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

should've caught the faster than expected WSW motion. TCs nearly always move faster than the guidance indicates in the tropical Atlantic

Realistically what is the threat level to Florida from Irma?

Realistically A TON OF THREAT. Doesn't mean it will get anywhere near Florida, or perhaps it will but will be weakened by certain factors, but right now Florida is close to or right in the crosshairs of most of the models, and most of those models are predicting a moderate to extremely intense hurricane at that time. Nobody can give you a very accurate probability right now because it's a little too far out, but Florida is in play to say the least.

[sma10]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days and the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

The million dollar question...

[Siker]

Uh... Euro seems to be delayed. Never even loaded past 12 hours on Weatherbell.

[WeatherEmperor]

Tropicaltidbits appears to be stuck at 72hrs for the Euro


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[SouthFLTropics]

I think TT is stuck on Hour 72

[bamajammer4eva]

The SW trend is a combination of Irma being faster than expected over the last couple days, the eastern US trough being faster/more progressive. Not sure how much more it could shift to the SW, but things are looking less safe for Hispaniola and Cuba.

should've caught the faster than expected WSW motion. TCs nearly always move faster than the guidance indicates in the tropical Atlantic

Realistically what is the threat level to Florida from Irma?

IMO the Florida threat is highest of all areas right now but this is a trend which could end up continuing on to end up with the target being LA, TX or MX. Trend could be ending and even adjust back to the right a bit or it could continue westward for a while like some other recent storms have done.

[sponger]

Tropicaltidbits appears to be stuck at 72hrs for the Euro


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Good grief!

[Steve]

HWRF-P going WNW kind of slides back West-ish toward the N Coast of Cuba. That's a first for the HWRF-P.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

Euro is last run after this I think.

[SouthFLTropics]

Uh... Euro seems to be delayed. Never even loaded past 12 hours on Weatherbell.

It's like the McGregor vs Mayweather fight. Too many people trying to view it and it crashed the PPV. Too many people trying to view one of the most important model runs of the year.

[fci]

The UKMET and GFS taking this into Cuba needs to be seriously considered. The UKMET has been the best model so far with track forecast.

Reminiscent of Ike almost exactly 9 years ago.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Uh... Euro seems to be delayed. Never even loaded past 12 hours on Weatherbell.

It's like the McGregor vs Mayweather fight. Too many people trying to view it and it crashed the PPV. Too many people trying to view one of the most important model runs of the year.

This might be one of the most important runs of all time.

[Alyono]

Once again, DO NOT USE THE HWRF-P

The HWRF is ONLY intended to be run with the nested grid. Plus, it is not really a different model, it is simply the parent domain with the high res inner nests interpolated onto the coarser resolution