ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

What's euro showing for Victoria rain

No joke, around five feet. I don't know if that quantity will verify, but a deluge is coming.

[Steve]

So your thinking 1hour until worse winds

I think longer based on how slow the storm is moving. There is a skinny band going to get you shortly, but the eyewall is creeping that way. Depending on the rain feeds depends on how much violent weather you get overall. But the eyewall is creeping your way. If it continues, you should see the strongest winds you've seen so far. I guess between 2.5 hours or so and sometime mid morning. If it gets you, it's not going to let up for a very long time unless you get a piece of the eye.

[jaguars_22]

Geez man that's 2 years of rain!!! 5 more hours until sun rise

[Janie2006]

Difficult to predict this sort of thing. I don't think any of us have ever seen anything exactly like *this*. That being said, one might as well be comparing oranges and eggplants when trying to draw comparisons to Katrina. Different topography, different infrastructure (as compared to NO), different storms.

However, I'm nearly positive that lots of places that never flood are going to do so this time.

[loon]

I doubt it'll be as bad as Katrina, at least not in terms of human lives. Probably a lot of damage to repair, but not that sort of devastation. I'm expecting something more like Hurricane Andrew's weaker little brother--costly, widespread, but not the nightmare that Katrina was.

We're barely 1 day it this, these sort of posts are nonsense, come on folks. Right now let's just report what we see and hear and not try to figure out the damage of a 5+ day storm on day one.

[Langinbang187]

I doubt it'll be as bad as Katrina, at least not in terms of human lives. Probably a lot of damage to repair, but not that sort of devastation. I'm expecting something more like Hurricane Andrew's weaker little brother--costly, widespread, but not the nightmare that Katrina was.

Very strange post all considering. I agree that the loss of lives won't touch Katrina, but I'm not getting the Andrew comparison at all.

[Steve]

Geez man that's 2 years of rain!!! 5 more hours until sun rise

It's probably tough but sleep whenever you can. It's going to be a very long few days. Of note on TWC, Dr Knabb told Mike Bettis things would get much worse in Galveston as the high in the SW pushes down. He didn't explain but I think maybe the boundary or pressure gradient will increase the flow off the Gulf for that area and parts of SE TX. If I'm wrong on that process, anyone is free to correct it.

[Callista]

I doubt it'll be as bad as Katrina, at least not in terms of human lives. Probably a lot of damage to repair, but not that sort of devastation. I'm expecting something more like Hurricane Andrew's weaker little brother--costly, widespread, but not the nightmare that Katrina was.

We're barely 1 day it this, these sort of posts are nonsense, come on folks. Right now let's just report what we see and hear and not try to figure out the damage of a 5+ day storm on day one.

This was in response to somebody who was already comparing it to Katrina on day 1 of a 5+ day storm, which I think is far-fetched since the area of Texas that Harvey is hitting simply doesn't have the sort of vulnerability that the New Orleans area did. At this point we can't do anything to help, and it does us no good to worry, especially to worry about something as terrible as another Katrina.

As for comparing it to Hurricane Andrew, I only meant to say that we should expect something like Andrew, but weaker--a "typical" major hurricane, if such a thing exists, with the primary damage being to our pocketbooks, not our population.

[Steve]

I doubt it'll be as bad as Katrina, at least not in terms of human lives. Probably a lot of damage to repair, but not that sort of devastation. I'm expecting something more like Hurricane Andrew's weaker little brother--costly, widespread, but not the nightmare that Katrina was.

We're barely 1 day it this, these sort of posts are nonsense, come on folks. Right now let's just report what we see and hear and not try to figure out the damage of a 5+ day storm on day one.

Someone asked the question and she answered. Nothing wrong with that. You're right, we don't know and haven't even seen daylight photos of damage. But this will be a different storm than Katrina. Very doubtful it is 1/3 of the financial damage. No idea on loss of life, but probably less. Having said that, Katrina wasn't a particularly extraordinary hurricane on the surface. They are all different, but Harvey could be one in a millennium.

[sbcc]

Geez man that's 2 years of rain!!! 5 more hours until sun rise

It's probably tough but sleep whenever you can. It's going to be a very long few days. Of note on TWC, Dr Knabb told Mike Sidell things would get much worse in Galveston as the high in the SW pushes down. He didn't explain but I think maybe the boundary or pressure gradient will increase the flow off the Gulf for that area and parts of SE TX. If I'm wrong on that process, anyone is free to correct it.

I think you hit it on the head. Short term forecasts show the area of very heavy rain fed by gulf moisture continuing in Texas throughout the period while increasing to the east into Louisiana then Mississippi while Harvey just idles around just inland of the Texas Bend. Doesn't look like there' s any steering currents developing until maybe Wednesday. All subject to change, of course.

[Steve]

I doubt it'll be as bad as Katrina, at least not in terms of human lives. Probably a lot of damage to repair, but not that sort of devastation. I'm expecting something more like Hurricane Andrew's weaker little brother--costly, widespread, but not the nightmare that Katrina was.

Very strange post all considering. I agree that the loss of lives won't touch Katrina, but I'm not getting the Andrew comparison at all.

I think the reference was in terms of dollars (edit confirmed). While Katrina was $108 billion, Andrew was around 30. We've got a long way to go with Harvey, but I tend to agree with Callista that Harvey probably doesn't hit that level. Allison was 9BB in '01 dollars. So if that fiasco repeated and you had 10 billion elsewhere, it would be close to Andrew but less. That's what I read into the younger brother comment. In the ballpark but not quite that much.

[chaser1]

I know the pressure just prior to landfall was 942 mb but was curious if anyone had noticed an official pressure that was lower at some point today? I had guessed that Harvey might drop to 937 mb, but as far as I know he bottomed out at 942 mb.

[ALhurricane]

I know the pressure just prior to landfall was 942 mb but was curious if anyone had noticed an official pressure that was lower at some point today? I had guessed that Harvey might drop to 937 mb, but as far as I know he bottomed out at 942 mb.

Recon measured 938 right before landfall.

[loon]

I doubt it'll be as bad as Katrina, at least not in terms of human lives. Probably a lot of damage to repair, but not that sort of devastation. I'm expecting something more like Hurricane Andrew's weaker little brother--costly, widespread, but not the nightmare that Katrina was.

We're barely 1 day it this, these sort of posts are nonsense, come on folks. Right now let's just report what we see and hear and not try to figure out the damage of a 5+ day storm on day one.

This was in response to somebody who was already comparing it to Katrina on day 1 of a 5+ day storm, which I think is far-fetched since the area of Texas that Harvey is hitting simply doesn't have the sort of vulnerability that the New Orleans area did. At this point we can't do anything to help, and it does us no good to worry, especially to worry about something as terrible as another Katrina.

As for comparing it to Hurricane Andrew, I only meant to say that we should expect something like Andrew, but weaker--a "typical" major hurricane, if such a thing exists, with the primary damage being to our pocketbooks, not our population.

Fair enough my apologies, long night, long days.

[loon]

I doubt it'll be as bad as Katrina, at least not in terms of human lives. Probably a lot of damage to repair, but not that sort of devastation. I'm expecting something more like Hurricane Andrew's weaker little brother--costly, widespread, but not the nightmare that Katrina was.

We're barely 1 day it this, these sort of posts are nonsense, come on folks. Right now let's just report what we see and hear and not try to figure out the damage of a 5+ day storm on day one.

Someone asked the question and she answered. Nothing wrong with that. You're right, we don't know and haven't even seen daylight photos of damage. But this will be a different storm than Katrina. Very doubtful it is 1/3 of the financial damage. No idea on loss of life, but probably less. Having said that, Katrina wasn't a particularly extraordinary hurricane on the surface. They are all different, but Harvey could be one in a millennium.

Y'all are right, I apologized. Been a long few days and long days ahead.

[Steve]

Jaguars,

According to TWC radar, some of the inner bands are loading up to your east and southeast and filling in. These are not the eyewall, but you may get some incrementally worse weather in succession. Good luck. I'm out for the night, but I'm sure I'll check in if I happen to wake up overnight. Y'all be safe.

[sbcc]

I've been switching between YouTube streams. Each time, I have to toggle off live chat.

Before the "Hide Chat" button is displayed so I can hit it, a version of "jeff is dead?!!11!!?" is displayed.

To repeat from earlier, YT Chat is a river of crap. This rumor seems to have spread to every channel displaying Harvey info.

Oh, well. Trolls be trollin', gullible people be gullibilin'.

We will know more in the morning. The man has over 30 years of experience doing this. I'm more worried about those who chose not to evacuate or who decided to go chase this storm with minimal experience. Prayers for all, but especially for them.

[southerngale]

Harvey is hitting now. How about we give a little respect to those being affected now and make a comparison later?
Hopefully, no comparison in loss of lives. We don't live in a bowl.

[EquusStorm]

I can't believe how well this is holding together inland. I've never seen satellite shots in the US of an eye that far onshore still being so perfect in appearance. Cloud tops are definitely coming down but the eye has remained nearly perfect up until now.

[bamajammer4eva]

According to the wording of the HLS from both NWS Houston, Tx and Corpus Christi Tx

Downtown Houston, TX expecting the exact same wind effects as Fulton Tx

Fulton, Tx wind portion(Maybe time sensitive)
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... aEkTCiGPIU

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads area. Remain well sheltered from
life-threatening wind having additional devastating impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across areas of South Texas generally west of Interstate 37. Remain well
sheltered from life-threatening wind having additional limited to
extensive impacts.

Downtown Houston wind portion of HLS after clicking on Downtown Houston
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... aEh-CiGPIU

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Matagorda Bay area. Remain well sheltered from life-threatening
wind having additional devastating impacts. If realized, these impacts
include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across the southwestern portion of Southeast Texas. Remain well
sheltered from life-threatening wind having possible limited to
extensive impacts.

Preperations and expectations are now the same for a Tropical Storm effects as from a Cat 4 Hurricane??