ATL: IRMA - Models

[Big Easy Breeze]

Interesting to note, in the latest forecast track and toward the end of the tracks, a very subtle track change from WNW, to W, for the ladt two track points just along Cuba. From a standpoint of where I live, that is no what I want to see, as far as a continued trend.

[northjaxpro]

Dont really think a storm traveling over land as portrayed in that track will have a intact
core structure.

Well let me remind you what we just saw last week with Harvey. Harvey's inner core remarkably stayed well iintact long after landfall well inland across South Texss. So I wouldn't get too comfortable thinking that.the inner core would get rapidly disrupted once inland.

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensemble tracks:

[Big Easy Breeze]

Interesting to note, in the latest forecast track and toward the end of the tracks, a very subtle track change from WNW, to a more W track for the last two track points along Cuba. From a standpoint of where I live, that is not what I want to see, as far as a continued trend.

[Tammster]

Dont really think a storm traveling over land as portrayed in that track will have a intact
core structure.

Well let me remind you what we just saw last week with Harvey. Harvey's inner core remarkably stayed well iintact long after landfall well inland across South Texss. So I wouldn't get too comfortable thinking that.the inner core would get rapidly disrupted once inland.

A lot of that "land" is also the Everglades.

[robbielyn]

Texas don't have mountains like dr Hispaniola and Haiti though. just saying.

[WAcyclone]

Almost all UKMET ensembles are taking Irma into Hispaniola and many of them move through the western Carribean south of Cuba. The SW trend continues...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Dont really think a storm traveling over land as portrayed in that track will have a intact
core structure.

Well let me remind you what we just saw last week with Harvey. Harvey's inner core remarkably stayed well iintact long after landfall well inland across South Texss. So I wouldn't get too comfortable thinking that.

Harvey had a clear track in the GOM with hundreds of miles too reform a core, ,The track on that GFS run is nothing alike to harvey.

[pcolaman]

Well we will probably see some more westward shifts with the storm riding wsw. Wouldn't rule out the possibility for somewhere around the northern gulf Coast between N.O. and the big bend area. Still alot of time left and the shifts continues. Believe me that I never want to see another storm near me here in Pensacola due to Ivan the terrible. Was the worst thing I had ever seen and have sworn to never stay with anything above a cat 2 anymore.Just have a bad feeling due to the way Ivan did. Started out at 10 n and was supposed to do the northern turn for days on end but waited till it was in between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula and made his way towards the nnw.Not a wish caster here by any means. Just see the similarities to the track ..

[chris_fit]

Almost all UKMET ensembles are taking Irma into Hispaniola and many of them move through the western Carribean south of Cuba. The SW trend continues...

I think that might be best case scenario for FL/SE US - other than OTS. Right through the shredder.

I do have to mention that on this plot, Irma is already on the extreme northern end of those ensemble members, so we might have to discount the southern ones?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Dont really think a storm traveling over land as portrayed in that track will have a intact
core structure.

Well let me remind you what we just saw last week with Harvey. Harvey's inner core remarkably stayed well iintact long after landfall well inland across South Texss. So I wouldn't get too comfortable thinking that.

Harvey had a clear track in the GOM with hundreds of miles too reform a core, ,The track on that GFS run is nothing alike to harvey.

Some cores crash very quick.

[USTropics]

Been quite a westward trend over the past 2 days, starting to remind me of another particular storm that did this:

[gatorcane]

HWRF into Cuba, I feel like I am now reliving Ike 2008 watching these models shift like this.

[ronjon]

OMG! I go to sleep and wake up to this nightmare in model guidance. 06z GFS ensemble mean now targeting Tampa. I might have to do some prepping now if Irma runs up the west coast of Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017090406&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=60

[northjaxpro]

So, if I am not mistaken, looking at the 6Z , Cuba may have two landfalls from Irma. It looks as if Irma landfall on Eastern Cuba and emerges briefly into the Caribbean, and then comes back north to crossthe central Cuba region, then moves across Key West.

[gatorcane]

Only thing is that the ECMWF and ensemble mean really didn't shift west much overnight as far as the turn north. Consensus of ECMWF and GFS points to South Florida at the moment.

[USTropics]

So, if I am not mistaken, looking at the 6Z , Cuba may have two landfalls from Irma. It looks as if Irma landfall on Eastern Cuba and emerges briefly into the Caribbean, and then comes back north to crossthe central Cuba region, then moves across Key West.

It's really close, but looks like it's just one landfall in Cuba:

[weathaguyry]

If the guidance has continued to shift SW, I don't see any reason why it wouldn't conintue to shift SW, or bounce around, because I am, for obvious reasons, somewhat doubtful that the track is going to be nailed, or almost nailed, 7 days out

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

@Hammy what do you think about this,you usually make a good call with these island traversing storms.

[HouTXmetro]

Been quite a westward trend over the past 2 days, starting to remind me of another particular storm that did this:

Very Ike-like.