ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

Has she been at 185mph the entire night as per NHC or has there been fluctuations in speed ?

NHC has had it at 185 mph since yesterday afternoon.

[KBBOCA]

St. Martin News - facebook photo album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnew ... 9566108784

[Extratropical94]

NHC didn't have data from the RFQ when the advisory went up, may lower slightly with the intermediate advisory.

still pretty much supports 180 to 185. they would wait for more passes before doing anything and especially a eyewall drop..

"Only" 100 knots at the lowest levels in the NE eyewall, but plenty of 160s and 170s on the way down, even below 900mb

[Hurricane Andrew]

So what is going on with this shear; is it supposed to let up around the Straight? Because ALL models show significant re-strengthening there.

My updated forecast will be out today...

[meriland29]

Does she look any weaker or stronger? Or does recon have updates? On my phone so limited on what I can see

[dukeblue219]

Has she been at 185mph the entire night as per NHC or has there been fluctuations in speed ?

There's really no way to know. There was a recon gap during the early morning hours, particularly while Irma was making landfalls on the various islands. There's been no clear cut proof it weakened overnight, although it does look like a slow reduction in wind is possible today.

[meriland29]

So what is going on with this shear; is it supposed to let up around the Straight? Because ALL models show significant re-strengthening there.

My updated forecast will be out today...

Except for the nhc, who thinks she will gradually weaken

[Extratropical94]

Does she look any weaker or stronger? Or does recon have updates? On my phone so limited on what I can see

She is looking a tad weaker, and her pressure has gone up a few mbars over the course of the day. FL winds have pretty much remained the same, SFMRs have gone down a bit. I'd say 150-155 knots right now.

[KBBOCA]

Quite a few phony videos going around on facebook... be careful what you share

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905451177160175616

[galaxy401]

So is the Facebook Live video at the previous page also a phony or legit?

[hurricaneCW]

Quite a few phony videos going around on facebook... be careful what you share

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905451177160175616

Phony Facebook videos...Shocker!!!

This is why people need to pay attention to officials instead of chewing everything up on social media.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061527
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 18 20170906
151730 1927N 06238W 6969 03159 0054 +096 +075 133063 063 046 000 03
151800 1928N 06237W 6968 03161 0058 +094 +076 133062 063 046 000 03
151830 1930N 06237W 6966 03166 0064 +090 +086 131060 061 /// /// 03
151900 1932N 06238W 6962 03169 0062 +091 +082 130059 061 /// /// 03
151930 1932N 06241W 6967 03161 0058 +095 +073 129059 061 045 001 00
152000 1932N 06243W 6968 03158 0057 +094 +076 128059 060 047 000 00
152030 1931N 06245W 6965 03161 0057 +091 +076 129058 060 049 000 00
152100 1931N 06247W 6967 03157 0055 +092 +083 132058 059 049 001 00
152130 1931N 06249W 6964 03159 0054 +091 +085 128058 060 049 000 00
152200 1931N 06252W 6966 03155 0054 +088 +084 128060 061 050 001 00
152230 1931N 06254W 6967 03152 0048 +091 +087 130062 063 051 000 01
152300 1931N 06256W 6969 03147 0041 +094 +093 130061 062 051 001 01
152330 1931N 06258W 6966 03148 0038 +095 +086 125059 061 052 001 00
152400 1931N 06301W 6966 03147 0034 +099 +075 123056 058 051 000 00
152430 1930N 06303W 6966 03144 0029 +100 +076 124056 058 049 001 03
152500 1930N 06305W 6967 03141 0029 +099 +084 122059 060 051 000 00
152530 1930N 06307W 6967 03142 0034 +092 +086 120059 059 051 001 00
152600 1930N 06310W 6963 03144 0031 +094 +087 121062 064 053 000 00
152630 1930N 06312W 6965 03141 0029 +094 +090 121065 066 053 000 00
152700 1929N 06314W 6968 03137 0027 +096 +088 120064 065 053 000 00

[supercane4867]

Irma has been encountering near 10kts of SW to southerly shear since last night as shown in the CIMSS shear map, which currently keeps any strengthening in check. The significant deepening in the Bahamas predicted by global models is mainly due to strong poleward outflow channel opening up once she feels the trough to the north

[NDG]

Updated radar loop. NW quadrant eyewall now affecting the British Virgin Islands.

[WeatherOrKnot]

I want to add, too, that with so many lives at stake, I cannot for the life of me, figure out what one gains by telling so many reading here that it's OK to sound the all clear at this point.

You could, literally, be dooming thousands to a very bad fate.

What does one hope to gain in doing this? Is it just the sense of "being right" about something? IDK

That's exactly what it is. Go COMPLETELY against the grain "on a hunch" just so that JUST IN CASE they somehow are right, they get a huge pat on the back. Either that or they have Pollyanna syndrome.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Irma has been encountering near 10kts of SW to southerly shear since last night as shown in the CIMSS shear map, which currently keeps any strengthening in check. The significant deepening in the Bahamas predicted by global models is mainly due to strong poleward outflow channel opening up once she feels the trough to the north

Thank you! Is that shear supposed to decrease as well?

[ScottNAtlanta]

JB has shifted his forecast east with a LF around dade/broward back out to sea with second landfall in area of GA/SC border

[meriland29]

Do you know how long she is expected to ve effected by that shear?

[NDG]

Irma has been encountering near 10kts of SW to southerly shear since last night as shown in the CIMSS shear map, which currently keeps any strengthening in check. The significant deepening in the Bahamas predicted by global models is mainly due to strong poleward outflow channel opening up once she feels the trough to the north

I would be taking those CIMSS shear maps as a grain of salt, it was showing 15 knots of shear over Harvey right when it was intensifying into a Major Hurricane.

[Blown Away]

Could argue a little S of the forecast track, may wobble back...