ATL: IRMA - Models

[FireBird]

With the more westerly trend, I have a big decision to make so need advice from my fellow S2Kers. We leave Trinidad for Fort Lauderdale on Friday, to head up to Orlando for vacation. even if this moves more west, it would mean that the strong NE quadrant would be over significant portions of FL state, depending on final size of storm.
We have to decide tomorrow what we will do since my mom is currently in Boynton Beach, and we were due to meet her. Does it make sense to hope that we could still get a vacation or should our focus be just to get mom back home? Grateful for advice from those who have experienced hurricanes in FL...

[caneman]

This has probably become the top analog in my mind, and that's not good, would cause widespread damage up and down the east coast

The west coast as well since the eye would traverse there

you mean the sw coast in particular customer not so affected in the nw coast north of tampa.

Wed be on the back side like with Charley. Of course Charley was much smaller so I'd think we'd still have effects

[HURRICANELONNY]

Can't remember the cone on me this far out and ever getting effected by the hurricane. That said. The trend might not be my friend or maybe it will.

[Blown Away]

12z... I believe the TVCN shifted slightly to the E and I believe that is the first E shift of TVCN in a few days...

[robbielyn]

The west coast as well since the eye would traverse there

you mean the sw coast in particular nw coast not so affected in the nw coast north of tampa.

Wed be on the back side like with Charley. Of course Charley was much smaller so I'd think we'd still have effects

[caneman]

With the more westerly trend, I have a big decision to make so need advice from my fellow S2Kers. We leave Trinidad for Fort Lauderdale on Friday, to head up to Orlando for vacation. even if this moves more west, it would mean that the strong NE quadrant would be over significant portions of FL state, depending on final size of storm.
We have to decide tomorrow what we will do since my mom is currently in Boynton Beach, and we were due to meet her. Does it make sense to hope that we could still get a vacation or should our focus be just to get mom back home? Grateful for advice from those who have experienced hurricanes in FL...

I can share what happened to me with Charley. I evacuated since Charley was forecast to hit just about where I live near indian rocks beach. The problem is that it turned at the last minute to where i had evacuated to in Kissimmee so I was right into where the eye went. We had 105 mile per hour winds. I wouldnt make any decisions yet until wed. Inside of 120 hours is most accurate.

[CrazyTropics]

Euro has this a 932 turning north aftercuba up FL east coast and hitting central NC 9/12 as 924? I trust Euro

Consensus track of the ECMWF and GFS is right through South Florida. But I agree the ECMWF is pretty darn good so would have to lean more towards that model. Go back and look at Euro runs from last week. It will shock you how close it might get to the track we may end up see
ing.

So we have two tracks folks, one I laid out and the other straight up the middle of FL

[robbielyn]

you mean the sw coast in particular nw coast not so affected in the nw coast north of tampa.

Wed be on the back side like with Charley. Of course Charley was much smaller so I'd think we'd still have effects

you R right. I go to evacuate to Orlando, then as I get there I had to return to spring hill to be safe lol. Charley only storm to scare me. thank goodness it turned when it did. we don't get the affects u guys do in Clearwater and tampa. u get way more action than we do up here.

[ronjon]

The west coast as well since the eye would traverse there

you mean the sw coast in particular customer not so affected in the nw coast north of tampa.

Wed be on the back side like with Charley. Of course Charley was much smaller so I'd think we'd still have effects

Think impacts like Donna. Much larger more massive storm which might maintain hurricane force winds up into central Florida. The only "good" thing from this trajectory would be that winds blow offshore so we wouldn't experience a large storm surge at the coast. Our course, our worst nightmare is that the storm rides north just offshore the west coast. Still a possibility according to 06z GFS ensemble mean.

[robbielyn]

With the more westerly trend, I have a big decision to make so need advice from my fellow S2Kers. We leave Trinidad for Fort Lauderdale on Friday, to head up to Orlando for vacation. even if this moves more west, it would mean that the strong NE quadrant would be over significant portions of FL state, depending on final size of storm.
We have to decide tomorrow what we will do since my mom is currently in Boynton Beach, and we were due to meet her. Does it make sense to hope that we could still get a vacation or should our focus be just to get mom back home? Grateful for advice from those who have experienced hurricanes in FL...

I can share what happened to me with Charley. I evacuated since Charley was forecast to hit just about where I live near indian rocks beach. The problem is that it turned at the minute to where i had evacuated to in Kissimmee so i was right into where the eye went. We had 105 mile per hour winds. I wouldnt make any decisions yet until wed. Inside of 120 hours is most accurate.

wow u stayed in Kissimmee huh? I'm not doing anything til Wednesday. feeling safe for now.wait and see mode.

[gatorcane]

12Z guidance hot of the press. Consensus track (TVCN) just off SE Florida:

[gatorcane]

South Florida Water Management plot 12Z:

[SouthFloridawx]

I think at this point, if you live in Florida, today is a good day to check your supplies, maybe go out and get some extra gas. The media is going to hype this up. Plan exit routes carefully. I don't think it would be a bad idea to take back roads out. Planning, thinking clearly and taking action you can is the best thing you can do. Worst thing is you have extra food, gas and water... all things you can use if the storm doesn't come.

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

[caneman]

With the more westerly trend, I have a big decision to make so need advice from my fellow S2Kers. We leave Trinidad for Fort Lauderdale on Friday, to head up to Orlando for vacation. even if this moves more west, it would mean that the strong NE quadrant would be over significant portions of FL state, depending on final size of storm.
We have to decide tomorrow what we will do since my mom is currently in Boynton Beach, and we were due to meet her. Does it make sense to hope that we could still get a vacation or should our focus be just to get mom back home? Grateful for advice from those who have experienced hurricanes in FL...

I can share what happened to me with Charley. I evacuated since Charley was forecast to hit just about where I live near indian rocks beach. The problem is that it turned at the last minute to where i had evacuated to in Kissimmee so i was right into where the eye went. We had 105 mile per hour winds. I wouldnt make any decisions yet until wed. Inside of 120 hours is most accurate.

wow u stayed in Kissimmee huh? I'm not doing anything til Wednesday. feeling safe for now.wait and see mode.

Yeah, we were a family of 6 and fully committed. Wasn't much we could do at that point. My heart sank that morning when I saw the last minute turn. No one thought it would be that bad but moving at 22 mph hour, it didnt weaken much. It was Charley that made forecasters become away that Hurricanes depending of forward speed can have damaging effects inland. Our hotel flooded from the sideways rain getting in cracks and crevices, lost power, transformers were blowing, a heavy wrought iron fence out our window was violently shaking. The tourist were terrified. It was pitch black. At one point I couldn't find my mom. We eventually found her hiding in the tub. Lol

[ronjon]

Actually TVCN landfall is the gold coast - Miami to be precise. Most other guidance shifted to SW Florida coast....not liking this trend.

[robbielyn]

so glad I live in West Central Florida!! may this pan out. sorry se coasters but Irma intent on you guys no matter what model we are looking at. but this would be very good for us over here and makes the most sense. right where I live thank goodness we don't get too much. our county spent millions on a deflector shield lol. Good thing too costing so much. They go south of us or north of us. Even Hermine didn't do much here in Hernando county. but like they say, it's not a matter of if but when.

[tgenius]

Actually TVCN landfall is the gold coast - Miami to be precise. Most other guidance shifted to SW Florida coast....not liking this trend.

The west shifts like that are not encouraging as that would put SE FL on NE quad. Thankfully we are 6ish days out still and everything is fluid.

[stormreader]

06z GFS ensemble tracks:

Just waking up, after a brief look at Euro and quick post early this morning. Look at the relatively few members of the ensemble that are now E of Fl. Posted a couple of days ago that I thought those who were dismissive of a GOM entry were very premature.

[MGC]

Another significant shift west.....where have I seen this before? Ivan....Starting to think Irma might make it to the GOM.......MGC

[ronjon]

Right now the 00z Euro is the eastern outlier of all the guidance. Can't say for sure if the other models won't swing back towards its solution given its stellar track record. Need to wait a few more model cycles.