psyclone wrote:CryHavoc wrote:psyclone wrote:Harvey had skeptics the whole time as he steadily climbed the ladder. I recall the "ragged" adjective being used 24 hours ago simply because the IR cloud tops warmed due to the sun. This storm steadily intensified (with some spurts tossed in) for 48 hours. it was remarkable persistent, relentless development. I am a believer in visible sat pics during the day and central pressure readings 24 hours a day (smoothed out) when trying to gauge development.
He also had people saying he was going to go Cat 5. There will always be a range of forecasts in this forum, and usually users either trend toward downplaying a system or hyping the hell out of it.
that is a very valid point. so the net effect is, for those paying close attention, you can really figure out who to pay attention to and who to disregard in future storms. it's how one can extract value from these forums going forward, especially if a storm is threatening your area..
My philosophy on my forum posts is that I rarely post intensity/track forecasts anymore. Instead, I try to give a general prediction of strengthening/weakening, and give forum members and guests the tips I have learned through my training/studying about how to stay safe in a storm. I don't care about nailing the perfect landfall intensity, pressure, etc, although a good competition can be fun if lives aren't on the line. But in a storm like this, lives ARE on the line, and my concern is getting useful information where it needs to go. This forum is very, very good for that; we can hear from a wide variety of people. Promet, government employees, first responders, and hobbyists who know more than I hope to learn in a lifetime.
