ATL: IRMA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

What time does Gonzo fly today? I would wonder if this new data would be plugged in by 18z or 0z.

[meriland29]

Almost all UKMET ensembles are taking Irma into Hispaniola and many of them move through the western Carribean south of Cuba. The SW trend continues...

There'd be almost no storm left by the time it reached Florida on that particular path. Runs the length of every island, including mountainous areas.

After following this storm with such passion and vigor this past week, its going to be very strange to many if the uk ensemble is correct. Because all of a sudden they may find themselves tracking a tropical wave by week's end.

If that becomes a reality, Hisp, Cuba, and all of those islands are in serious trouble, and the US may be spared due to the mtns. HOWEVER, anymore of a shift to the south, which seems to be the undying trend of GFS now, and it sweeps under all of that, possible clips the western part of Cuba, and leaves Irma in a very warm GOM....

[curtadams]

I'm not going to re-quote Janie2006 on this, but she posted a blurb from the New Orleans WFO making a very important point. A critical feature for determining when, where, and perhaps even if Irma will turn north is a upper low currently off the California Coast. There are NO soundings on this feature yet. NONE. So the models don't have good data to work with, and so any model predictions about Irma's turn are still only poorly educated guesses.

[Jevo]

With the more westerly trend, I have a big decision to make so need advice from my fellow S2Kers. We leave Trinidad for Fort Lauderdale on Friday, to head up to Orlando for vacation. even if this moves more west, it would mean that the strong NE quadrant would be over significant portions of FL state, depending on final size of storm.
We have to decide tomorrow what we will do since my mom is currently in Boynton Beach, and we were due to meet her. Does it make sense to hope that we could still get a vacation or should our focus be just to get mom back home? Grateful for advice from those who have experienced hurricanes in FL...

My wife and I live in Fort Lauderdale and have a Disney trip planned for this weekend... We aren't going to make a decision until Wednesday at this point. The models are still all over the place +5 days

[weathaguyry]

It will be interesting to see how the 12z run of the GFS takes into account the W movement as opposed to a WSW one

[crimi481]

Extreme warm water between N. Coast Cuba and Ft Meyers/ Tampa. If its a slow moving storm and light shear, Irma will bulk up fast. ala Charlie. Hoping Models change soon.
Charlie landed 20 miles south from me (Englewood. Fl)

[xironman]

Well the NAM is showing a recurve so we got that (sarcasm)

[Mello1]

I'm not going to re-quote Janie2006 on this, but she posted a blurb from the New Orleans WFO making a very important point. A critical feature for determining when, where, and perhaps even if Irma will turn north is a upper low currently off the California Coast. There are NO soundings on this feature yet. NONE. So the models don't have good data to work with, and so any model predictions about Irma's turn are still only poorly educated guesses.

I read that discussion Janie2006 posted and I'm wondering why no data is being sampled yet, or do they need to wait a little longer to determine how this will pan out?

[crimi481]

A re curve away from w. coast Fla?

[xironman]

A re curve away from w. coast Fla?

Its a joke, the NAM is useless for tropical systems, and useless for all systems at 84hrs. I was only looking at it to see the early evolution of the trough

[Kat5]

When people say that the northern islands are a shredder for storms, it totally reminds me of George.

[crimi481]

What are the Models thinking relating to Irma's forward speed after leaving Cuba's coast?

[curtadams]

I read that discussion Janie2006 posted and I'm wondering why no data is being sampled yet, or do they need to wait a little longer to determine how this will pan out?

The upper low is over the ocean, so there's no weather stations to send up balloons.

[toad strangler]

There'd be almost no storm left by the time it reached Florida on that particular path. Runs the length of every island, including mountainous areas.

After following this storm with such passion and vigor this past week, its going to be very strange to many if the uk ensemble is correct. Because all of a sudden they may find themselves tracking a tropical wave by week's end.

If that becomes a reality, Hisp, Cuba, and all of those islands are in serious trouble, and the US may be spared due to the mtns. HOWEVER, anymore of a shift to the south, which seems to be the undying trend of GFS now, and it sweeps under all of that, possible clips the western part of Cuba, and leaves Irma in a very warm GOM....

Sweeping UNDER the islands does not absolutely mean GOM. Irma will lift N with the trough by most accounts no matter how far S she gets. So she could conceivably go S of the islands and then due N through only Cuba.

[gatorcane]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

What the hell happened overnight with the GFS and Euro? How did the Euro become the Eastern outlier?

That trough was always a borderline feature, just deep enough to pull Irma up. And now it misses.

Also, this is what happens when the hurricane hunters deploy: the models start to cluster once they have real data.

It doesn't miss. It blows a hole in the subtropical that allows the storm to take a hard right. Here is a time lapse showing the 588 line splitting

POI: These kinds of graphs are enormously helpful for we newbies/learners seeking to grasp the intricacies and more as we follow along here. Thank you so much for posting this.

[xironman]

I read that discussion Janie2006 posted and I'm wondering why no data is being sampled yet, or do they need to wait a little longer to determine how this will pan out?

The upper low is over the ocean, so there's no weather stations to send up balloons.

For winter storms I have seen them send out a plane.

[ROCK]

The more SW she dives now the more GOM comes into play. 2 days ago I was thinking no chance in hell. But EURO runs and some GEFS ensembles are changing my mind right now..shows what I know

[tailgater]

Just seems as though we might be done with the Westward trend, not many outliers showing anything west of extreme SE GOM and then basically North.

[jlauderdal]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore