ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[Exalt]

I hope the GFS doesn't verify with this bout of strengthening before hitting FL..

[Mello1]

IMO SFL TV stations should stop showing models. We have a forecast track and it's time to focus on that.

This is the worse type of scenario with this storm trending to turn NNE as it approaches Florida. I don't get folk returning supplies -- it's not like you can have enough water IMO and by Christmas, you won't have to run for batteries. I've seen (with Charley I believe) that sucker looking to go west and then BAM -- it drifted east -- right into the Tampa area. With this storm, we are talking about mere tens of miles difference with being in the eyewall or tropical storm/depression winds. This storm is big enough to affect the whole state, unless one lives in the far west panhandle.

I dunno, I wouldn't risk health and safety. Everyone in Florida should have a plan and a backup plan and a backup to that. I wouldn't chance anything as long as the whole state remains in the cone.

[Tireman4]

AFD from NWS San Juan...

00
FXCA62 TJSJ 061609
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1209 PM AST Wed Sep 6 2017

...Hurricane conditions expected across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands this afternoon and tonight...

.UPDATE...Category 5 Hurricane Irma is now bearing down on Saint
John and Saint Thomas. The eyewall of the hurricane is expected to
pass through the islands with extreme winds and an extreme wind
warning has been issued. The southern portion of the eyewall will
also move through Culebra about one and one half hours later. The
hurricane is moving west northwest at 16 mph with little
deviation. The Hurricane force winds are expected to affect the
northern USVI and portions of northern and eastern PR, while most
of the local islands are expected to observe at least tropical
storm force winds. Weather is expected to improve by Friday with
mainly locally induced showers and thunderstorms when combined
with the moisture that moved over the area as Irma continues
moving away.

&&

.AVIATION...Deteriorating conditions at all of the local terminals
expected today as major Hurricane Irma moves through the region.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities ranging from 1500 to 3000 feet and 3
to 5 miles can be expected when the core of the hurricane moves near
the local terminals. Strongest winds and worst conditions expected
at TJSJ and TJPS between 22z and 03z. At TJMZ and TJBQ, the
strongest winds and MVFR conditions should occur between 01z and 08z.
TIST is forecast to see hurricane force winds and MVFR conditions
from around 16z through 23z, and TISX should see tropical storm
force winds and MVFR ceilings and visibilities during the same time
frame. TNCM and TKPK are both experiencing the core of the hurricane
at this time.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, it is strengthening some more?

[ronjon]

IMO SFL TV stations should stop showing models. We have a forecast track and it's time to focus on that.

absolutely, it really started this morning with julie durda showing spaghetti to our east without any explanation then she shows the nhc track which was west...max mayfield works with julie durda, he needs to tell channel 10 to stop asap and just show the nhc track.

Things will change if the 12z Euro is consistent with the GFS, UKMET, and GEM track guidance - would imagine if that happens, the NHC would issue a hurricane watch for portions of the keys and FL east coast late this afternoon.

[znel52]

So, it is strengthening some more?

More or less maintaining at the moment. Pressure did drop ever so slightly but too early to tell if it is a strengthening trend IMO.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061706
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 28 20170906
165730 1716N 06313W 6966 03151 0038 +103 +055 206048 048 042 001 00
165800 1715N 06311W 6967 03152 0042 +101 +052 210047 047 041 000 00
165830 1714N 06310W 6967 03154 0053 +092 +061 211046 046 042 001 00
165900 1712N 06309W 6966 03157 0058 +091 +058 210046 047 041 000 00
165930 1711N 06308W 6969 03156 0060 +090 +075 209048 048 041 000 00
170000 1710N 06307W 6966 03159 0056 +092 +083 204048 048 041 000 00
170030 1709N 06305W 6968 03159 0056 +094 +081 203045 048 040 000 00
170100 1708N 06304W 6969 03160 0059 +091 +083 203042 044 040 000 00
170130 1707N 06303W 6965 03165 0059 +094 +072 203040 041 039 000 00
170200 1705N 06302W 6969 03161 0060 +093 +076 201039 039 039 000 03
170230 1705N 06300W 6957 03174 0061 +093 +067 199040 040 /// /// 03
170300 1706N 06259W 6967 03163 0062 +093 +072 196038 040 /// /// 03
170330 1708N 06300W 6978 03151 0065 +090 +072 192038 039 040 000 03
170400 1710N 06300W 6967 03162 0063 +093 +074 191040 040 040 000 00
170430 1712N 06300W 6969 03162 0060 +095 +074 192040 041 040 001 00
170500 1714N 06301W 6967 03162 0059 +094 +075 193041 042 040 000 00
170530 1716N 06301W 6965 03165 0055 +096 +069 193041 042 039 001 00
170600 1718N 06301W 6969 03160 0057 +095 +071 193042 042 041 000 00
170630 1721N 06301W 6966 03162 0052 +100 +058 195043 044 041 000 03
170700 1723N 06301W 6967 03159 0052 +097 +058 192044 044 041 000 00

[Exalt]

So, it is strengthening some more?

Eyewall is intensifying slightly and Irma's forecasted to intensify before hitting FL.

[NDG]

IMO SFL TV stations should stop showing models. We have a forecast track and it's time to focus on that.

absolutely, it really started this morning with julie durda showing spaghetti to our east without any explanation then she shows the nhc track which was west...max mayfield works with julie durda, he needs to tell channel 10 to stop asap and just show the nhc track.

Things will change if the 12z Euro is consistent with the GFS, UKMET, and GEM track guidance - would imagine if that happens, the NHC would issue a hurricane watch for portions of the keys and FL east coast late this afternoon.

I wouldn't doubt if the Euro if anything shifts a little to the west since the GFS has been running right biased.

[galaxy401]

Well so much for thinking that Irma was on a downward trend. How long will she remain a category 5? I think it will depend on how close she gets to Hispaniola.

[painkillerr]

This is really Bad! Really bad in St. Thomas now! How can I post pictures here?

[GCANE]

What do you think the odds are:

Roof coming off the shed.
Shed gets obliterated.
Cars get tossed.
Cam goes out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXcyJ6OpjGg



Link: https://youtu.be/jXcyJ6OpjGg

[GCANE]

Doors about to go on the shed

[Ken711]

IMO SFL TV stations should stop showing models. We have a forecast track and it's time to focus on that.

absolutely, it really started this morning with julie durda showing spaghetti to our east without any explanation then she shows the nhc track which was west...max mayfield works with julie durda, he needs to tell channel 10 to stop asap and just show the nhc track.

Things will change if the 12z Euro is consistent with the GFS, UKMET, and GEM track guidance - would imagine if that happens, the NHC would issue a hurricane watch for portions of the keys and FL east coast late this afternoon.

If the Euro shifts East what would you expect the NHC would do at that point?

[Evil Jeremy]

So, it is strengthening some more?

Eyewall is intensifying slightly and Irma's forecasted to intensify before hitting FL.

Not true. Irma is not currently forecast to intensify any more than she currently has, now or before Florida.

Now, it's very possible she weakens from interaction with islands and restrengthens in the Florida Straits, but to say that Irma is "forecasted to intensify before hitting FL" is not true.

[ronjon]

San Juan RAD: Southern eyewall aprroaching St Thomas.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JUA

[GCANE]

2 out of 3 cams out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXcyJ6OpjGg

[GeneratorPower]

Need to move the TV/internet video feed discussion to another thread. Media Coverage thread?

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061717
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 29 20170906
170730 1725N 06301W 6967 03157 0050 +096 +074 189043 044 042 000 00
170800 1727N 06301W 6966 03159 0047 +099 +076 187044 045 043 000 00
170830 1729N 06302W 6966 03156 0043 +100 +078 189046 047 044 000 00
170900 1731N 06302W 6967 03155 0045 +100 +070 190046 048 043 000 00
170930 1734N 06302W 6967 03155 0044 +098 +072 188047 047 043 001 03
171000 1736N 06302W 6968 03153 0049 +091 +084 183047 048 043 001 00
171030 1738N 06302W 6967 03150 0052 +090 +082 183049 050 043 001 00
171100 1740N 06302W 6967 03151 0050 +091 +084 183049 050 044 001 00
171130 1742N 06303W 6969 03149 0045 +091 +087 182049 049 043 001 01
171200 1745N 06303W 6969 03149 0043 +094 +086 182049 050 044 001 00
171230 1747N 06303W 6966 03151 0044 +095 +075 184050 051 044 001 00
171300 1749N 06303W 6967 03150 0044 +095 +075 185051 052 044 001 00
171330 1751N 06303W 6967 03149 0044 +094 +079 185052 052 044 000 00
171400 1753N 06303W 6968 03147 0044 +094 +074 184052 053 044 000 00
171430 1756N 06303W 6966 03149 0045 +090 +083 182053 053 043 000 00
171500 1758N 06304W 6967 03147 0047 +087 +081 182053 054 043 001 00
171530 1800N 06304W 6967 03145 0045 +090 +083 182053 054 046 000 03
171600 1802N 06304W 6967 03144 0043 +090 +080 181053 053 /// /// 03
171630 1805N 06304W 6967 03140 0040 +090 +085 181054 054 /// /// 03
171700 1807N 06304W 6966 03144 0037 +093 +079 182054 055 043 000 03