ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

It seems to me that the LLC of Harvey is further west this morning than what the NHC thinks based on the wind reports from buoy 42059.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

It seems to me that the LLC of Harvey is further west this morning than what the NHC thinks based on the wind reports from buoy 42059.

Post the reports ? Please

[GCANE]

Will be interesting to see what Recon finds.
CIMSS is showing nearly open vorts at 850mb and 700mb.
500mb vort quite a bit south of them.

The TUTT over the Keys continues to degrade slowly.

[GCANE]

Very high rain rate.
He's keeping his head above the East Carib waters.

[NDG]

It seems to me that the LLC of Harvey is further west this morning than what the NHC thinks based on the wind reports from buoy 42059.

Post the reports ? Please

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[AtlanticWind]

Harvey looks like it may be opening to a wave on the early morning visible.
92L seems to be finding a way to survive.

[GCANE]

Very dry air to the NW of Harvey.

[NDG]

So far the recon is finding a fairly weak eastern quadrant of the circulation, most of the wx still looks to be to the west of it.

[tolakram]

SLIDER. Not much banding, very linear convection IMO. I think there's a chance for a very weak or no LLC at the moment.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14780&y=8054&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[srainhoutx]

Harvey did speed up its Westward motion overnight. That increase in forward speed likely will work in favor of keeping Harvey alive over the next 24 hours when we see a decrease in wind shear. Conditions continue to look optimal in the Western/NW Caribbean as Harvey slows down and the Easterly Trade Winds weaken dramatically. Harvey is far from over this morning.

[NDG]

SLIDER. Not much banding, very linear convection IMO. I think there's a chance for a very weak or no LLC at the moment.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14780&y=8054&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

You could be right, recon has not been able to find a closed circulation so far, unless they are looking in the wrong area.

[HURAKAN]

looks wavy

[Nimbus]

Harvey has been moving so fast that the circulation may be what they call "storm relative circulation" meaning there is no measurable west wind in the southern quadrant. The forecast slowdown in forward motion still should allow for intensification in the western Caribbean.

[NDG]

Latest recon reports shows it may still have a closed circulation but a broad one, unless the LLC is re-developing further west at the moment, trying to keep up with the deep convection being pushed west by the mid and upper level winds.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I will be surprised if recon don't find winds close to 40kts from the NE.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a wave too in the infrared

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[NDG]

Circulation is still closed, based on latest recon report.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any recon report that suggests a closed circulation. Obs from Aruba and Curacao to the south suggest a wave. If the center is west of where I put the crosshairs (a guess at "center" location based on recon), then it's in even worse shape. Doesn't mean it won't become a TS farther west, but it does look like a wave today.

[NDG]

I'm not seeing any recon report that suggests a closed circulation. Obs from Aruba and Curacao to the south suggest a wave. If the center is west of where I put the crosshairs (a guess at "center" location based on recon), then it's in even worse shape. Doesn't mean it won't become a TS farther west, but it does look like a wave today.

http://wxman57.com/images/Harvey3.JPG

[xironman]

Not definitive, but a west wind at the surface

Code: Select all

1009mb (29.80 inHg)    Surface (Sea Level)    26.8°C (80.2°F)    23.7°C (75°F)    280° (from the W)    8 knots (9 mph)