ATL: IRMA - Models

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Jimsot
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5601 Postby Jimsot » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 am

I am not the best with math, but lets say the eye of the storm is 30 miles from you, do they mean the exact center, would you then subtract the half the eye radii distance from that number. I'm I making sense?


Alyono wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Does this slight north shift keep the core away from the northern Leewards, or still a direct hit?


still plows over them. A Luis is now probably the best case scenario
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5602 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 am

Not liking this one bit living in Florida. No land interaction and upper air environment starting to favor more west it seems
Last edited by caneman on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5603 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 am

895mb monster even after crossing Cuba.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5604 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 am

RL3AO wrote:
About 30 to 40 miles north of 6z run.


Also a solid Category 5 right there. Ouch.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5605 Postby joey » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 am

RL3AO wrote:Image

About 30 to 40 miles north of 6z run.


moving nw at 108 ?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5606 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 am

Trend towards a more progressive and more positively tilted trough.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5607 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:02 am

Moving just north of due west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5608 Postby p1nheadlarry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:02 am

This might be the furthest west the GFS has gone with the ridge bridge :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5609 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:02 am

Kazmit wrote:895mb monster even after crossing Cuba.

Image


Aww he!! No. Missed a frame or 2. At what hour does it start to effect Florida. 144? Watching for the 120 mark
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5610 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:02 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5611 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:03 am

Kazmit wrote:895mb monster even after crossing Cuba.

Image
so the gfs really has an 885 after crossing cuba..seems suspicious at best
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5612 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:03 am

Kazmit wrote:895mb monster even after crossing Cuba.

Image

wow kiss my home bye modlehome
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5613 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:03 am

Pretty good jump North of 6z, ridge bridge looks narrower at 114 than 6z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5614 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 am

RL3AO wrote:Image

About 30 to 40 miles north of 6z run.

Do you think it's a new trend North for model or are they getting a grip on the movement?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5615 Postby mike2kt » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 am

caneman wrote:
Kazmit wrote:895mb monster even after crossing Cuba.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/MoTqe ... 86-h670-no


Aww he!! No. Missed a frame or 2. At what hour does it start to effect Florida. 144? Watching for the 120 mark


That's the 6z not the 12z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5616 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 am

About 70 miles north of 6z run which had it over Cuba at this point.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5617 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 am

Not looking good for the GOM
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5618 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 am

RL3AO wrote:Image


At 144

114 hour mark already in Southern Bahamas. Has it picked up speed or forecast to do so? We look like were at about the 120 hour mark now or close to.
Last edited by caneman on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Steve
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5619 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 am

This may be the worst run I've seen on a storm that really was going to hit since Wilma and Rita.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

And it's deepening south of Florida rather than in the SW Atlantic. Damn. This isn't going to end up good at all. Hate to be a doomsdayer, but...
Last edited by Steve on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5620 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 am

Kazmit wrote:895mb monster even after crossing Cuba.

Image


That's from this morning's 6z. 12z hasn't gotten there yet.
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