ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

Missing HDOB from before:

URNT15 KNHC 061807
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 34 20170906
175730 1903N 06400W 6970 03077 9965 +094 +088 136075 076 056 002 01
175800 1902N 06401W 6967 03073 9951 +089 +083 137079 080 057 002 01
175830 1901N 06402W 6966 03070 9949 +095 +084 137080 081 061 001 00
175900 1900N 06404W 6970 03060 9940 +099 +078 138082 082 061 002 00
175930 1859N 06405W 6963 03064 9942 +097 +082 137083 084 063 005 00
180000 1858N 06406W 6952 03073 9966 +101 +101 135086 088 063 018 03
180030 1856N 06407W 6983 03032 9966 +089 //// 133085 086 /// /// 05
180100 1855N 06409W 6969 03046 9952 +100 +100 138085 088 061 027 03
180130 1854N 06410W 6978 03031 9939 +102 +102 141088 094 070 014 00
180200 1853N 06412W 6964 03035 9909 +100 +096 139094 096 068 007 00
180230 1852N 06413W 6965 03027 9905 +095 //// 136095 095 072 005 01
180300 1852N 06415W 6967 03014 9882 +101 +090 138098 098 073 004 00
180330 1851N 06416W 6971 02997 9879 +105 //// 140101 103 075 005 01
180400 1850N 06418W 6941 03014 9869 +112 +112 137098 103 075 020 00
180430 1849N 06420W 6924 03027 9860 +101 +101 136102 104 079 014 00
180500 1848N 06422W 6985 02939 9829 +119 +119 136102 104 080 020 00
180530 1848N 06424W 6967 02942 9800 +112 +110 133107 109 091 011 00
180600 1847N 06426W 6967 02923 9776 +110 +109 133114 117 091 009 00
180630 1846N 06428W 6972 02890 9750 +111 +110 132121 123 094 007 00
180700 1846N 06430W 6966 02867 9725 +107 //// 130129 131 097 008 01

URNT15 KNHC 061837
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 37 20170906
182730 1813N 06507W 6965 02954 9818 +113 +113 325087 089 076 007 00
182800 1812N 06508W 6978 02959 9856 +111 +111 325092 094 074 011 00
182830 1811N 06510W 6981 02974 9878 +112 +112 317083 090 070 022 00
182900 1810N 06511W 6953 03020 9892 +106 +106 316079 080 067 027 03
182930 1809N 06512W 6965 03014 9887 +108 +108 318077 078 063 013 03
183000 1807N 06513W 6977 03009 9903 +108 +108 322077 077 060 013 03
183030 1806N 06515W 6962 03036 9923 +105 +105 323078 080 056 012 00
183100 1805N 06516W 6966 03040 9936 +100 +100 323071 078 054 012 03
183130 1804N 06517W 6970 03044 9951 +100 +100 321065 070 052 015 03
183200 1802N 06519W 6966 03057 9966 +096 +096 313064 067 050 018 00
183230 1801N 06520W 6970 03059 9977 +097 +097 308056 062 049 016 00
183300 1800N 06521W 6967 03069 9983 +090 +090 308054 055 048 010 00
183330 1759N 06522W 6965 03078 9974 +092 +092 311056 058 047 010 00
183400 1758N 06524W 6967 03081 9969 +093 +086 311053 055 046 010 00
183430 1757N 06525W 6967 03083 9973 +092 +090 312051 052 044 008 00
183500 1755N 06526W 6968 03084 9975 +092 +089 315051 051 043 004 00
183530 1754N 06527W 6966 03092 9973 +097 +078 316050 050 043 003 00
183600 1753N 06529W 6970 03092 9978 +098 +073 318048 050 043 004 00
183630 1752N 06530W 6960 03106 9980 +099 +075 320048 048 044 002 00
183700 1750N 06531W 6970 03098 9988 +095 +080 321047 048 043 003 00

[Hurrilurker]

Dropsonde indicates near 7mb drop in pressure since last pass. That's an impressive intensification rate

Wow, that is unexpected. Especially since pressure was previously rising a bit since last night.

[Airboy]

Dropsonde indicates near 7mb drop in pressure since last pass. That's an impressive intensification rate

is it not more like 4? from 921 to 917?

[GCANE]

Dropsonde indicates near 7mb drop in pressure since last pass. That's an impressive intensification rate

Wow
917mb

[Michele B]

Hello,
This is my first ever post here on Storm 2K!! Been on site since Charley here in Orlando and want to say this is the best forum out there!! Thanks for keeping us informed on whats going on as this is a dangerous situation for all here in the mainland. Wanted to ask since im no expert what type of winds would we realistically feel here in Orlando. Fox35 said at least 100mph earlier in morning. Wanted to see how valid that statement was. Keep up the good work guys doing great.

Hi, OTown, nice to have ya here! I joined myself only about a year ago, and you're right, it's the best forum on the weather I've found....

As to your question, I don't see any reason to doubt you could have 100 mph winds during the storm where you are, if the current track proves out. I don't know WHAT "morning" he's talking about, I would surmise Sunday or Monday, but even that is still up for grabs.

Keep a close eye on this forum, your local Mets, and prepare accordingly.

[Aric Dunn]

and this is the SW eyewall.. getting very close to PR> hope for some woblles.

182300 1823N 06457W 6917 02740 9520 +112 //// 306134 148 147 048 05

[KWT]

Not surprising it is still dropping, the inner core presentation is still exceptional. It kind of does look like there is a formative outer eyewall on the radar but when a system gets this strong of an inner core its often only land interaction that disrupts the core to any great extent.

GFS did have this going into the 800s, I'm starting to think that is actually a very probable outcome and if that does come off what an outstanding performance from the GFS, at least in intensity.

[1900hurricane]

Seems like the drop in temperature across the convective tops is more than offsetting the light westerly shear for the time being.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061847
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 38 20170906
183730 1749N 06533W 6966 03105 9995 +093 +081 322044 046 040 005 00
183800 1748N 06534W 6970 03105 9997 +094 +072 319046 046 040 005 00
183830 1747N 06535W 6966 03110 9998 +095 +074 324047 047 040 006 00
183900 1745N 06537W 6972 03106 0002 +095 +073 326046 046 043 004 00
183930 1744N 06538W 6965 03119 0003 +097 +072 326046 048 042 003 00
184000 1743N 06539W 6965 03119 0009 +093 +076 328052 053 044 002 00
184030 1742N 06541W 6968 03119 0013 +090 +081 330048 051 044 004 00
184100 1740N 06542W 6965 03123 0009 +095 +087 329042 046 044 003 00
184130 1739N 06544W 6970 03119 0008 +099 +078 330043 045 045 004 00
184200 1738N 06545W 6967 03126 0010 +099 +083 332043 044 043 005 00
184230 1736N 06546W 6967 03128 0015 +098 +077 322041 042 041 004 00
184300 1735N 06548W 6965 03132 0015 +100 +071 324043 043 042 003 00
184330 1734N 06549W 6973 03126 0012 +105 +065 326043 044 040 001 00
184400 1733N 06550W 6963 03139 0016 +103 +064 329043 044 040 002 00
184430 1731N 06552W 6966 03136 0021 +100 +072 332041 042 040 002 00
184500 1731N 06552W 6966 03136 0026 +096 +079 333041 041 039 002 00
184530 1729N 06554W 6968 03134 0032 +090 +079 334043 044 041 002 00
184600 1727N 06556W 6971 03134 0040 +086 +083 330045 045 040 002 00
184630 1726N 06557W 6966 03138 0033 +090 +077 335043 047 039 005 00
184700 1725N 06559W 6969 03137 0059 +090 +090 330041 043 039 005 00

[Elsiecoro]

Been anxiously reading the board, looked at projected latest path. IF Irma does come aboard Florida,and skirts up the east coast, will the interaction with land as it skirts the coast potentiallyweaken the storm any? or because part of the storm appears to be offshore, will it be ableto maintain its strength pretty much?

[StormyWaters93]

I'm just curious as to would be the worst case scenario should this pass over Orlando if the models a gift again... anybody have any idea?

[BYG Jacob]

Seems like the drop in temperature across the convective tops is more than offsetting the light westerly shear for the time being.

Which direction is the shear from?

[1900hurricane]

Seems like the drop in temperature across the convective tops is more than offsetting the light westerly shear for the time being.

Which direction is the shear from?

West.

[Sanibel]

Irma is on NHC track...

[SouthDadeFish]

Raw T numbers from GOES-16 are up to T 7.4.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2017 Time : 174535 UTC
Lat : 18:32:21 N Lon : 64:30:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.4mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +19.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Blinhart]

Just saw on TWC, that the Miami-Dade people in Zone A and B will probably be told to evacuate in the next day.

[BYG Jacob]

Seems like the drop in temperature across the convective tops is more than offsetting the light westerly shear for the time being.

Which direction is the shear from?

West.

Ah, is that why her west quad looks a little off?

[rolldamntoad]

This might load faster than the NHC page, although it is probably still pulling graphics from there: http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

Which direction is the shear from?

West.

Ah, is that why her west quad looks a little off?

When you see it...

[supercane4867]

Raw T numbers from GOES-16 are up to T 7.4.

https://i.imgur.com/OdJnzb4.gif

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2017 Time : 174535 UTC
Lat : 18:32:21 N Lon : 64:30:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.4mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +19.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : EYE

TXNT25 KNES 061813
TCSNTL

A. 11L (IRMA)

B. 06/1745Z

C. 18.5N

D. 64.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN W FOR A DT=7.0 INCLUDING
+1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=7.0. PT=6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

18z SAB subjective dvorak also up to T7.0, let's see if it makes to T7.5 tonight.