ATL: IRMA - Models

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Steve
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5641 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:11 am

Looks like it's hooking toward S FL at 132. That's a hit from the SSE coming sort of right at Miami. Generational storm being depicted.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5642 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 am

Heading NW at 144, approaching SFL, 890mb
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5643 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 am

Looks like a near worst case scenario for Miami in terms of wind and quite bad for surge.


Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5644 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 am

12z @100 mile N shift from 06z...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5645 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 am

Never mind...didn't turn out like I thought. Bad for Florida. Very bad.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5646 Postby CrazyTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 am

That northern turn or as the GFS depics is more north sooner than going over cuba which means in theory if that keeps pannimg out more then the EC was correct in that a northern turn on the east coast of FL to NC. The GFS is not handling the trough or ridge correctly, in fact it has over done it. Keep watching this more north produ t as the models are correcting their errors
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5647 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 am

CrazyC83 wrote:It seems we've backtracked to the model runs yesterday...a glitch or a trend?

Huh???
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5648 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 am

RL3AO wrote:Trend towards a more progressive and more positively tilted trough.

https://i.imgur.com/bGP8cB9.gif

What would that mean as far as potential track?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5649 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:12 am

Image

Would be a cat 5 pushing surge into all of SE florida.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5650 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:13 am

Landfall a little S of Miami at 150 hours, headed NNW :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5651 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:13 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5652 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:13 am

otowntiger wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It seems we've backtracked to the model runs yesterday...a glitch or a trend?

Huh???


The SW trend we saw this morning and last night is being corrected...we're back to yesterday's 12Z and 18Z basically.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5653 Postby JPmia » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:13 am

Steve wrote:Looks like it's hooking toward S FL at 132. That's a hit from the SSE coming sort of right at Miami. Generational storm being depicted.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400


Good lord .. now I'm getting nervous based on these trends. Here's hoping for more back and forth in the next few runs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5654 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:13 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Trend towards a more progressive and more positively tilted trough.

https://i.imgur.com/bGP8cB9.gif

What would that mean as far as potential track?

Recurve over or near Florida.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5655 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:13 am

Eye just inland, moving north in Broward at 156
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5656 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 am

Jeez. If this morning's run didn't cause widespread panic in S. Florida, this one will.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5657 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 am

Wow. Huge landfall in south Florida. Still no sign of recurve
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5658 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 am

RL3AO wrote:Image

Still intensifying. Would be Jose stronger too.


And look at the possible Katia in the GoM.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5659 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 am

Big east shift by the GFS. What happens after the turn north is going to be critical for SE, as well as when it turns for FL. :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5660 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:14 am

Image
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