ATL: IRMA - Models

[La Sirena]

Gonna go right up the entire SE US coast.

Weird coincidence....it's at 911 mb on...9/11.

[p1nheadlarry]

Intensity forecasts have been bullish from the get-go, without the ocean coupling like you see in other models (think climate and ENSO models) you're probably looking at 910-920 at the landfall in FL. Differences are small in terms of impact - that would give Harvey a run at costliest storm of the season (or all time!), but also it could affect the track of the storm. I think the latter is more important at this stage.

[Alyono]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 52.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2017 0 16.7N 52.7W 965 69
0000UTC 05.09.2017 12 16.3N 54.8W 968 75
1200UTC 05.09.2017 24 16.2N 57.2W 963 80
0000UTC 06.09.2017 36 16.6N 59.3W 963 73
1200UTC 06.09.2017 48 17.3N 61.7W 961 78
0000UTC 07.09.2017 60 18.0N 64.3W 958 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 72 18.6N 67.0W 949 90
0000UTC 08.09.2017 84 19.2N 69.4W 949 83
1200UTC 08.09.2017 96 19.5N 72.4W 979 62
0000UTC 09.09.2017 108 19.8N 74.5W 970 67
1200UTC 09.09.2017 120 20.5N 76.6W 964 60
0000UTC 10.09.2017 132 21.3N 78.1W 962 68
1200UTC 10.09.2017 144 22.6N 78.8W 945 83

[TheStormExpert]

Paralleling the east coast and never making landfall in Florida is still very much in play.

As we saw with Matthew that would be the best case scenario for a storm that is to recurve over or near Florida.

[stormreader]

No sharp NE turn this run. Trend is bad for the GOM

I think so. I think the odds of going back east with runs have diminished some. A few have remarked here on the depth and shape of the trough, remarking that appears shallower, and that there is more of a tilt in its relationship to the ridge. I think that argues for less east. If anything, I think the percentages favor changes west in the next couple of days.

[Raebie]

Paralleling the east coast and never making landfall in Florida is still very much in play.

As we saw with Matthew that would be the best case scenario for a storm that is to recurve over or near Florida.

Best case for Florida you mean. We didn't like Matthew so much here in the Carolinas. Unless this thing recurves out to sea, there is no best case scenario.

[Steve]

GFS has it just south of Asheville and Charlotte @ 978mb at 198 hours. 12 straight US Landfalls by the GFS, this time a double. Movement has a west component. Compared to previous GFS runs, this should hook west soon.

Edit to say it hasn't really happened. Circulation moves north and is about to WV/PA Border at 204 980's. Pittsburgh would probably be the next city to be affected in the next plot.

[Frank P]

No sharp NE turn this run. Trend is bad for the GOM

Disagree, this is not bad at all for the GOM ... this run doesn't even make the GOM... how can this be bad?

[crimi481]

The trend keeps Gulf open.

[stormreader]

No sharp NE turn this run. Trend is bad for the GOM

Disagree, this is not bad at all for the GOM ... this run doesn't even make the GOM... how can this be bad?

Well, I'm only referring to the extreme SE Gom, which with a shallower trough would allow entry there, before a move north along the Fl West Coast.

[robbielyn]

Paralleling the east coast and never making landfall in Florida is still very much in play.

that would be better than going up the spine and then we west coasters can experience warm sinking air and sunny skies. I like it! I like it! beach here I come.

[p1nheadlarry]

No sharp NE turn this run. Trend is bad for the GOM

Disagree, this is not bad at all for the GOM ... this run doesn't even make the GOM... how can this be bad?

It's the trends. We've gone further west each run, and more ensemble members are making it into the north/east gulf since Friday.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The sequel to Matthew, "Matthew's evil sister Irma gets revenge!"

Except that this might actually make landfall over South Florida (it's premature, may change)

[pcolaman]

Still westward trends guys .

[Aric Dunn]

models are still betting some sort of a low to develop over the MS valley... not buying into it yet..

[mcheer23]

Not buying the brick wall turn

[p1nheadlarry]

No sharp NE turn this run. Trend is bad for the GOM

Disagree, this is not bad at all for the GOM ... this run doesn't even make the GOM... how can this be bad?

Well, I'm only referring to the extreme SE Gom, which with a shallower trough would allow entry there, before a move north along the Fl West Coast.

Similar track to Donna, 1960. Donna hit Collier/Monroe counties as a Cat-4 and crossed into the ocean, making landfall in NC as a Cat-2. Differences are a) stronger b) smaller east component.

[GeneratorPower]

Not buying the brick wall turn

Have seen many storms make abrupt turns. Not unusual.

[caneman]

Give it till Monday/Tuesday and you will see the modles change more right w correction.

Please,quit posting stuff without factual or some sort opinion with model backed info. Do you happen to live in North Carolina or points North?

[RL3AO]

Not buying the brick wall turn

It makes perfect sense given the synoptic pattern.