ATL: IRMA - Models

[GeneratorPower]

Slight right shift with 12Z GFS ensembles but more tightly clustered over South Florida

could be a trend hopefully

This is looking like The Big One. Historic possibilities. Typical uncertainties.

[sma10]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 52.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2017 0 16.7N 52.7W 965 69
0000UTC 05.09.2017 12 16.3N 54.8W 968 75
1200UTC 05.09.2017 24 16.2N 57.2W 963 80
0000UTC 06.09.2017 36 16.6N 59.3W 963 73
1200UTC 06.09.2017 48 17.3N 61.7W 961 78
0000UTC 07.09.2017 60 18.0N 64.3W 958 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 72 18.6N 67.0W 949 90
0000UTC 08.09.2017 84 19.2N 69.4W 949 83
1200UTC 08.09.2017 96 19.5N 72.4W 979 62
0000UTC 09.09.2017 108 19.8N 74.5W 970 67
1200UTC 09.09.2017 120 20.5N 76.6W 964 60
0000UTC 10.09.2017 132 21.3N 78.1W 962 68
1200UTC 10.09.2017 144 22.6N 78.8W 945 83

Mapped it via Google. UKMet sticking with the shredder run.

Goodness gracious, you want to talk about a game of inches. GFS and UK are in a sense not too dissimilar, but that one degree or so of latitude - but what a difference that degree makes! The Gfs brings into FL a catastrophic monster, the Uk, likely a mere annoyance. If but for the Greater Antilles, we'd be saying both models are in general agreement, with things looking grim for FL. Instead Hispaniola may face a catastrophe, saving one for the US

[johngaltfla]

Trends are starting to make me poke out an eye in NY again, with possible trough at the end that swings this out and back in, if CMC is right. Looking like Donna will be a really good analog, but a disastrous one.

CMC has been surprisingly good this year. Which is disconcerting as a Donna track would be a mega-disaster.

[Steve H.]

HWRF still NW of 06Z

06Z - 17.85N 61.1W (930mb)
12Z - 18.15N 61.6W (925mb)


Aside to Rock:

Run the 06Z IR4 simulated off HWRF-P as it finally finished. Dynomat in the house.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=600

good to see

Yeah, dynomat....we could use some now...break it out!!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Trends are starting to make me poke out an eye in NY again, with possible trough at the end that swings this out and back in, if CMC is right. Looking like Donna will be a really good analog, but a disastrous one.

CMC has been surprisingly good this year. Which is disconcerting as a Donna track would be a mega-disaster.

I wouldn't even be able to go south to help...bc my own area would get pounded by a still-powerful hurricane.

[ronjon]

12Z NAVGEM goes up west coast of Florida:

Tough to see the outline of Florida there Gator. Is it sitting just off Tampa Bay?

[Blinhart]

I just looked at the GEPS, looks like it takes Irma to Pensacola area, but all of the Gulf Coast would get soaked.

And the GEFS goes right up the spine of Florida and then moves NW.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM goes up west coast of Florida:

https://s26.postimg.org/lfywqibux/nvg10 ... go_mex.gif

Tough to see the outline of Florida there Gator. Is it sitting just off Tampa Bay?

Here is another view:

[HurricaneFrances04]

The wind speeds on the HWRF is insane. 200 mph?

Edit: This is not at the surface. I was looking at 850, not 10m.

[M3gaMatch]

Do you guys see the UKMET's shredder scenario the more likely one, or the GFS scenario which keeps it just north and off the coast of those islands?

[gatorcane]

Can you believe the HWRF is coming in stronger and IR simulation shows an even larger storm:

[weathaguyry]

The wind speeds on the HWRF is insane. 200 mph?

Holy $&@", that's approaching Patricia levels!

[tgenius]

Euro kicking off now. Hoping curves east of FL on this run..

[Steve]

120 hour/5 day trends with the hurricane models seem to be slightly faster and NW of the 06Z runs.

HMON is quite a bit farther N than the last run. But it's bad because instead of being inland in Cuba, it's a barreling Category 5 hurricane moving to the FL Straits at 126:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

It's position comparison is roughly:

12Z - 23.33N 79.5W 872mb
06Z - 22.15N 79.4W 948mb and over Cuba

HWRF at 96 hours (8am EDT Friday)

06Z 21.00N 73.7W @ 939mb
12Z 21.15N 74.1W @ 934mb

[SouthDadeFish]

The wind speeds on the HWRF is insane. 200 mph?

Where are you getting this from? I see 10m winds in the 130-140 kt range.

[RL3AO]

First post of the thread updated with most recent GFS and Euro runs.

[BobHarlem]

The wind speeds on the HWRF is insane. 200 mph?

Holy $&@", that's approaching Patricia levels!

Ocean temps around there are some of the highest in the Atlantic basin

[bamajammer4eva]

NWS Tallahassee tweeted this about models and hurricanes

[HurricaneFrances04]

The wind speeds on the HWRF is insane. 200 mph?

Where are you getting this from? I see 10m winds in the 130-140 kt range.

Correct, I was looking at 850. Much lower at 10m.

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF landfall Cuba in the exact same position as 06Z: